Monday, November 22, 2010
More snow on the way for southern Manitoba..
A powerful storm system pushing onto the West Coast today will move into the central US plain states over the next couple of days, spreading another round of snow to southern Manitoba by Wednesday. Snow from this system will move into southern Manitoba Wednesday morning, continuing through Wednesday night into Thursday. Early indications are that a general 10-20 cm of snow is possible across southern Manitoba by the time the snow starts tapering off Thursday. As the storm system moves east into NW Ontario, increasing northwest winds on the backside of the storm will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow Thursday.. especially over the Red River valley. This storm will bring the third significant snowfall in the past week over southern Manitoba.. which was largely snowfree just last Wednesday. What a difference a week makes.
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Travel days to Brandon and return appear to be Friday evening, Saturday and Sunday morning.
ReplyDeleteWhen do you think the Sunday/ Monday storm will arrive in Manitoba?
Will they have enough time between storms to clear the Highway?
Here's what Rob had to say on this blog a while back:
ReplyDelete"Bring on the snow. This dull overcast weather is so boring"
.....now look at what you did...LOL
So what are the thoughts on how the rest of the week will play out. Is there a little bit of snow comming Tues midnight then a little more on Wednesday with most comming wednesday night thursday morning. The winds to pick up thursday afternoon?
ReplyDeleteArgh! Unsure how this system will play out for the Red River valley. More and more looks like actual heaviest snowfall will be along the international border northward to Winnipeg...our internal HPC snowfall graphics still have 8 inches Winnipeg to Kenora area with 6 inches down into northeast ND and northwest MN. As for winds...if surface low stacks up over the immediate valley winds may not be that bad until at the very end and by then the surface low may start to weaken. These are the days I wish we had a bit more simplified watch/warning/advisory headline like EC has.
ReplyDeleteHappy American Thanksgiving!
Yeah Dan, I was impressed to see the huge list of warnings/advisories you guys have and how it all plays out when I was visiting the GFK office last week. Sometimes it's nice to just have a few warning types…
ReplyDeleteThat being said, I think there should be particular emphasis on this storm, as it looks to be the most powerful one for Winnipeg so far this year. I think the current forecast doesn't convey the significance of the event. We'll see what this afternoon's issue brings…
All in all I would bet for at least 15cm (6") through Thursday evening, with the potential for 20-25 (9-11") depending on the snowfall ratio; if it's anywhere near as fluffy as the stuff on Sunday, we're in trouble.
That being said, I'd put my money on the 6-8" range.
NWS states in their winter storm watch that 6- 8 inches of snow could fall near international border....so basically we will be buried under a mountain of snow come Thursday!!!
ReplyDeleteDaryl..
ReplyDeleteThis is the latest on what we see so far..
Some light snow developing overnight in Winnipeg.. a dusting to maybe 1 or 2 cm by the morning drive, just enough to slick up the roads. Snow increases through the day Wednesday with another 5-10 cm by the evening rush hour.. then another 5-10 cm possible Wednesday night into Thursday. Latest guidance is backing off on the wind potential for Thursday with stronger winds more likely south of the border, so blowing snow may not be as big of an issue for us on Thursday as originally thought. Still, we will likely be seeing moderate northwest winds developing by Thursday night with some drifting snow.
All in all.. still looks like a general 10-20 cm over Winnipeg/southern Manitoba Wednesday into Thursday, with a lesser threat of blowing snow Thursday. East winds of 20-30 km/h Wednesday will become light Wednesday night into Thursday morning then pick up from the northwest later Thursday into Thursday night. Will update as I get more information..
By the way, I've added a new link called "HOURLY FCST" under the 7 day forecast graphic on my website which gives a nice table and graph of temperature, wind and precipitation expected in Winnipeg over the next 48 hours in 3 hr increments. You can input any locality you want in the search box for that location's information. "Overview" gives you a map showing hourly progression of temperature, wind and precipitation. 7 day outlooks also available. Wind speeds are in m/s (metres/second) Multiply by 4 to get km/h (roughly).
ReplyDeleteA word of caution: This output comes from the Norwegian weather service, and is a completely automated product (likely from the European model) so the output will likely differ from the official EC forecast. Still, it will give a good idea of general trends, start times of precipitation, amounts and winds over the next 48 hours. It is not meant to be a precise forecast (even though the output is precise).. but rather to give you an idea of general trends. An interesting product which may be helpful to some of you out there..
Environment Canada changed the snow amount for Winnipeg to 10cm. From the 5- 10cm in this morning issued forecast!
ReplyDeleteGFS is still indicating strong winds!
Rob. Will this storm be a fluffy snow like sunday???
daniel..
ReplyDeleteThat fluffy snow on Sunday (as well as Friday's lake effect) was about a 20 to 30:1 snow:water ratio.. (10 cm = 3-5 mm liquid water) Snow:water ratios with this upcoming event will be more in the 10-15:1 range.. so not as fluffy. In addition, there will be some wind Wednesday which will help cut down the "fluffy factor" as snowflakes get broken up and compress easier. Snow may be a little fluffier Wednesday night into Thursday morning with lighter winds, but we could see a dry slot cutting off the snow for awhile overnight as well.
As you can see, still a lot of uncertainty depending on several factors. But overall, still looks like we're in line for 10-15 cm Wednesday through Wednesday night, then another 2-5 cm Thursday.
FWIW.. poll ensemble with 31 entries is currently at 14.9 cm.
Difficult to know how to do our headlines for this system...
ReplyDeleteDecided with an advisory for the snow wed-wed eve...for 4-6 inches of snow along the canadian border then blizzard watch for late wed night into thursday for psbl wind issues.. but watch due to uncertainty.
Look like EC expecting lots of snow, they already put out snowfall warnings for most of southern MB.
ReplyDelete