Sunday, November 14, 2010
Dull weather continues.. colder air moving in for mid week; snow possible by Friday..
The dull weather of the past few days will continue today over the Red River valley with generally cloudy skies and temperatures near the freezing mark. Little change is expected for Monday however colder weather is forecast to flood into the Prairies by mid week as an Arctic airmass pushes in from the north. This will usher in a stretch of below normal temperatures for the first time in several weeks over southern MB along with occasional flurry activity. Long range models point to the possibility of a more significant clipper system pushing across the southern Prairies by late week with snow spreading into southern MB by Friday.. possibly giving the Red River valley its first widespread snow event of the season (potential for 5-10 cm) Stay tuned..
Posted by rob at 4:50 AM
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I can't believe how cold some of Novembers record overnight lows can get!ReplyDelete
-30's in the middle of the month and beyond!
It's starting to look more and more likely for southern Manitoba to get's it's first accumulating snow of the season on Friday.ReplyDelete
As long as that warm air does not sneak across the border!!
Its no wonder November is SAD month. NO sunshine and no snow to reflect/enhance the meager sunlight. That snow couldn't come too soon.ReplyDelete
WHEN and How much?
How many Santa Claus/Seasonal parades have occurred without any snow in Winnipeg?ReplyDelete
Look at those soil temps! We used to start the outdoor rinks by now. Winnipeg opened all their rinks by the end of November. Would it be due to climate change?ReplyDelete
Where is this cold ☃☃☃ weather they talked about a month ago?
No sun, no snow, no wonder.. November. :)ReplyDelete
Yeah.. I'm ready for some snow. We still have a shot of 5-10 cm of snow Thursday night into Friday with that clipper system.. although models have been hinting that the heaviest snow may fall just to our north. Too early however to say for sure.. but we're still well in line to see at least a covering to brighten up this drab landscape.
By the way, I crunched some stats, and found that the average date in Winnipeg for a snowcover of 2 cm or more to stay on the ground for the winter is Nov 26th. So we still have a couple of weeks before we can consider this lack of snowcover unusual.
No need to worry about the lack of cold!
There is plenty coming.
A cold push of air on wednesday with a passing clipper to out west!
Then another with the departing storm system on Friday!
I feel sorry for the folks in Calgary next weekend who have to play football in the predicted freezing cold!
I also crunched numbers from 1949 to 69 (no drought in those two decades +1yr))and came up with an average Date of Nov 11th for at least 3cm of snow on ground.(didn't necessarily stay for the month or winter) Noticed some strange anomalies though ..1.6cm snowfall resulted in a 0 to 3cm increase in snow on ground.ReplyDelete
Hmmm? (credits to Dan P )
Another week untill we might be able to see the sun!
Count our blessings if we get a clear patch!
Here are what the models are showing in terms of snow accumulation in Winnipeg for Thursday/Friday:ReplyDelete
GEM: 5 to 10cm
GFS: 2 to 4cm
JMA: 4 to 8cm
Accumodel: 7 to 10cm
ECMWF: 3 to 6cm
NOGAPS: 4 to 8cm
HPC: 5 to 10cm
The two mainstream models (GFS and ECMWF) are showing the smallest accumulations.
The average "low-end" solution from the models is 4cm and the average "high end" is 8cm...so the NOGAPS and Japanese are around the average solution right now. As Rob mentioned, actual accumulations will depend on the track of the system...the higher amounts correlate to a more southern track by the respective model. An important note is that the ECMWF is taking the system further north in a weaker state. The european model has done very well so far this fall with resolving the pattern, so I place a fair bit of weight on its ideas. We'll have to watch the model trends over the next couple days to see which track of the system will take.
Blizzard warning for way up north in Baker Lake!ReplyDelete
Winds 80 - 110 km/h !
Now that is a blizzard!
Imagine just trying to stand up in those winds never mind blinding snow and windchill around -30C
I am a journalism student studying in the Rhetoric and Communications department of The University of Winnipeg. I am doing a story for my Investigative Journalism course on Natural Disasters and our city's preparation system. I was planning on focusing on Tornados and was curious if you have any information you could pass on to me regarding the topic? Any comments regarding the topic that you could provide me with would also be very helpful in terms of quotes.
Latest model guidance continues to show clipper system moving across southern MB for Friday.. with best chance of accumulating snow mainly north of the TransCanada through the Interlake area. Guidance suggests Winnipeg and the TransCanada corridor could see 2-4 cm out of this.. with 10-15 cm possible just to our north. We'll see what happens.. but at this point models are fairly consistent with taking the axis of heaviest snow to the north of Winnipeg.ReplyDelete
Snow on ground measurements prior to 1977 were recorded in whole inches.. which are converted to whole cm in the climate database. That's why SOG measurements would sometimes jump from 0 to 3 cm (1") with only 1-2 cm falling (observer was rounding up to 1" SOG, which rounds up to 3 cm).
SOG measurements changed to whole cm in 1977.
That date of Nov 26th I quoted is a measure of when persistent snow cover starts.. as opposed to when we get our initial snowcover which is usually 2-3 weeks earlier, but often disappears if it's not too much.
This below normal temperatures that will be arriving this next few days will be a real shock to the system!!ReplyDelete
I noticed that Portage La Prairie's forecast varies greatly from Winnipeg's forecast in terms of snowfall!!
3 days of snow compared to Winnipeg's "flurries"!
Could this be a situation where North Winnipeg gets 5 cm while the south side gets a few flakes???
This is part of the caption with NWS Grand Forks Graphical f'cast this am (0530)ReplyDelete
... Low pressure will move from southern Alberta to western South Dakota today and then into Nebraska tonight. As it does so....winds will turn northerly later tonight into Wednesday dragging some colder air southward. A few flurries will also be possible. A storm system will move quickly east though southern Canada Thursday and Friday. Most of the snow with this will stay in the Regina to Winnipeg to Kenora areas.
Helpful info in one place for those of us driving Winnipeg Regina Winnipeg this week/weekend.
My Name for NWS complete caption/week ahead and Graphic
Interesting comments and the latest D J F Canada Model forecasts On my name.ReplyDelete
Warmer n Snowier than earlier predictions!
Jim ,if that forecast for the winter months hold true then Southern Manitoba could have serious flooding issues in the spring!!ReplyDelete
I went for a walk through the Assinboine Park yesterday and the ground still has standing water on it!
The ground was beyond saturated before freeze up!
That NWS link repeats Robs 1130PM Trans Canada Corridor post 1130PM yesterday.ReplyDelete
The latest GFS run has nudged the snow shield slightly south from the previous run!ReplyDelete
Winds might also be an issue with the passage of the storm!
Latest NAM gives Winnipeg 15cm of snow and Steinbach about 10cm.ReplyDelete
12Z Ensemble run puts an 80% chance of more than 5mm of precip in Winnipeg with the next system (Thursday-Friday). Considering the ensemble tends to be a conservative model, it is looking increasingly like a good snowfall is in store for southern Manitoba later this week.
If we miss out on Friday's system (not likely), there's another clipper forecast to spread another shot of snow over us Sunday.. One way or another, looks like we'll be snow covered by the end of the weekend! I'm ready for some white stuff! This dull overcast weather is too boring!ReplyDelete
I think your right Rob!ReplyDelete
It seems with each model run the southern edge of snow is going farther south (not by much)
Seems Winnipeg could see around 10 cm of snow with gusty winds!
Latest NAM has shifted the main band of snow back through the Central Interlake...will have to to see if this solution continues in future runs.ReplyDelete
I was watching CKY skywatch weather earlier this evening!ReplyDelete
Flurries.....everything they say flurries!!
2 cm of snow.....flurries
70 cm of snow.....furries
While the NAM is bringing the axis of heaviest snow through Dauphin and the Interlake areas Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.. the GEM is bringing the axis of heaviest snow a little further south across the TransCanada.. including 5-10 cm for Winnipeg. Which model is going to be right? Looks like it's time for a snow poll!ReplyDelete
That link to the caption on our weather story graphic is one I did on my last midnight shift.
Is storm system ever going to race across the prairies!
According to the forecast it will start snowing in Regina in the morning and start around noon in Winnipeg!!
Now that's a "clipper"!
Looks like some lake effect is kicking in this morning!ReplyDelete
Area's downwind of the lakes could pick a few cm!
Quite the lake effect Hwy 1 just east of Portage La Prairie at noon and then more concentrated again at Hwy1/ and 13 (to Oakville Carman intersection) to Elie.ReplyDelete
Thanks Rob Scott and Dan P & NWS for updates.
Dan P The warmer snowier DJF Climate Forecast doesn't necessarily increase the flood risk or intensity.ReplyDelete
On my name is a doc showing Winnipegs 10 worst RR floods and several related factors including Temp anomaly and DJF precip.
Snowfall Warning for Almost all of southern Manitoba!ReplyDelete
Bring on the snow!!
Quite the turn out on the polls so far.
24 votes might be the most you ever had and more time left!!!
The Weather Network is fcst a total 10 to 15 Friday thru Monday???ReplyDelete
Any one else pick 30 cm by Monday?
If you were driving to Brandon tomorrow which route would you take. I must be there 6 ish or I would stay home.ReplyDelete
Unfortunately it won't be the best day to be travelling west tomorrow. The drive to Brandon will be snowy.. with the heaviest band of snow expected near or along the TransCanada and to the north. Snowfall is expected to be less south of the TransCanada so I suppose taking Highway 2 or Hwy 23 west would be less snowy options.. but those routes are only single lanes and would take considerably longer, and they'll see some snow anyways as well. Snow will be moving into Brandon tomorrow morning reaching Portage by late morning and Winnipeg by early afternoon and will become heavy at times fairly quickly. Check radar tomorrow morning to see how the storm is progressing before you make a decision to go or not.. If you do go, give yourself lots of extra time as roads will likely be snowcovered by afternoon, especially as you head west. Good luck!