Wednesday, June 02, 2010

More rain on the way Thursday night into Friday..

More rain is on the way for southern Manitoba Thursday into Friday as a trough of low pressure moves in from the west. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to push into southwest MB Thursday morning reaching the Red River valley by evening. Showers will move across the Red River valley Thursday night into Friday morning with the chance of some isolated thunderstorms. Current indications show about 5-15 mm of rainfall over the Red River valley, although locally higher amounts of 15-25 mm are possible in thunderstorms. At this point, the best chance for thunderstorms and heavier rain will be south of the border through the Dakotas, and also through western Interlake areas. Hopefully the heaviest rain with this system will miss Winnipeg and the Red River valley which is saturated from heavy rains over the past weekend.

63 comments:

  1. Not sure about this. Just watched the GF weather on WDAZ and John Wheeler says that Thursday is widely scattered t-showers - really not much to be worried of. Friday will clear out and be a nice day. Quite the difference from EC.

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  2. The best forcing/lift for precip appears to miss Winnipeg like Rob said. Best moisture/ instability will remain off to the southeast where new surface wave occludes off and LLJ refocuses over southern Minnesota. Another QPF bullseye to the NW associated with trowal/ deformation zone of upper low...

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  3. Well Environment Canada is calling for 10 - 15 mm of rain tonight!

    Hopefully there won't be any embedded convection in the area of rain or amounts could be closer to 25mm!!

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  4. Does anyone see the potential for any thunderstorms forming out ahead of the area of rain????

    The airmass out ahead of this trough of low pressure is actually quite warm and somewhat humid!!!

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  5. Look at all those thunderstorms fire up in Saskatchewan!

    Maybe those will make into Southern Manitoba tonight!

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  6. Like Daniel P has mentioned, a good line of thunderstorms has sprung up along the dryline/cold front in Saskatchewan. They don't look too awful though (just usual prairie convection) so there will probably be a chance of some warning-level hail or some strong wind gusts. Not really anything people there aren't used to on days like today, though.

    Area of rain pushing towards the RRV and slowing down it's eastward progress. GEM-REG seems to slow it down a little too much, and I like the call of pushing it into Winnipeg a bit sooner than the model does. Just based on the motion, I have a hunch that this will end up being more of a widespread 5-15mm event. There is a slight risk of a embedded thunderstorm tonight, however it's an off chance and would probably not amount to anything more than slightly heavier rain and a bit of thunder.

    Fortunately, rainfall rates will remain considerably lower than last week, even in the heaviest bands, so despite the potential of up to 15mm, it'll be a lot easier for the ground to handle and for it to run-off to where it needs to go.

    Looking at the satellite imagery, the other Daniel is correct in mentioning best forcing remaining well south of the border. I think the most likely scenario would be locally heavy showers as decaying nocturnal thunderstorms ride the remnants of the 850 jet up towards the upper low.

    All in all, a rainy night, but nothing overly special. The bigger news, I believe, is that tonight will signal our entry into a much more unstable weather pattern with zonal 250/500mb jets hugging the International border, we can expect to see weak impulses riding down the arctic stream into central Alberta then swinging east across the prairies. We'll probably have quite a few showery days over the next week or so.

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  7. Oh and Daniel P, the thunderstorms in SK along the DL/CF will die as the sun sets and they loose their source of instability.

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  8. How about that line of storms that have EXPLODED south of Saskatoon!

    Impressive!

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  9. What happened to all the rain???

    It just vaporized as it nears Winnipeg!!!!

    hmmmmm.......

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  11. Hwy 2 this morning was lined with water filled fields and ditches all the way to Treherne.

    Returned today from SW Sask and was surprised by acres of rain water standing in fields from Antler SK to Souris MB where there was little or none at noon today. No TStorms but steady downpour slowing to none at Portage La Prairie East at 730.

    Elie has standing water close to, but not to 2005 levels and very little standing water (compared to 05)from Portage to just before Elie. If those storms tonight or tomorrow reach Elie expect it to match or exceed 05. Many fields on the South side will become waterfilled from Hwy 1 to the CNR tracks.

    Weatherbug Redvers on HWY 2 just over the Sask border shows 27mm since noon today

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  12. Well there is one lonely storm just entering western Manitoba now!

    I'm surprised it is holding together as long as it has!

    What could be causing that storm to be so strong???

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  13. The Portage diversion appeared to be 67% of capacity at the Simplot Frozen French Fry Plant on Hwy 1 east of Portage la Prairie

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  14. Severe thunderstorm watch issued already for Red River Valley!

    I guess looking at what happened over southern Saskatchewan yesterday today could get pretty active!

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  15. Best chance for any storms today will be if we get some sun in the valley while dewpoints remain elevated.. If we don't get enough insolation, then the chances of severe storms are greatly reduced. Might be too much low level moisture to get the needed heating.. but we'll see.

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  16. Latest satellite pix show cells starting to pop west of Lake Manitoba and over western RRV around an upper low moving through southern MB. Similar situation yesterday over west central SK produced several slow moving thunderstorm complexes which gave locally heavy rain (over 25 mm) as well as nickel size hail and some funnel clouds. We'll see if similar events unfold today.

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  17. Let the storms begin!!

    Hopefully they will not be slow moving like yesterday!!

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  18. Looks like quite a few storms popping up all over the place!

    Warnings on the cell to the east of Riding Mountain and a storm that will probably soon have a warning in the south eastern corner of province!

    The storms in Riding Mountain area look like they are building south eastward and should build to area's north of Portage soon!!!

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  19. Funnel Cloud reported at the airport
    at 2:18!!!!!!

    Look at the webcam from downtown looking west for proof!!!

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  20. I can see a funnel cloud from my balcony to my northwest!!

    I got a picture too!!!!!

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  21. How cool was that! I was at the School of Met this afternoon and watched a couple of funnel clouds go by. First time in my 24 year career as a weatherman that I have ever observed FC. Got a mighty burst of rain at my house as that same system passed ovhd.

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  22. hmm... Mother Nature decided to give the south end a break today..
    Insulting! =Þ

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  23. Sorry Mother Nature. Must have made her mad, getting our fair share now!
    I should complain more often =Þ

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  24. Quite the day of funnels for Winnipeg and surrounding areas today...would have been nice to see that.

    Check out my video of the tornadoes I caught on tape from SE Colorado and NW Oklahoma on Memorial Day...enjoy!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0jKJxFky6M

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  25. I was at Costco at Kenaston and McGillvary around 2:30 pm and saw the funnel cloud to my northwest.. a small little thing extending about 1/4 of the way down but very distinct and it appeared to be growing towards the ground at one point before it quickly dissipated. Several people in the Costco parking lot were looking at it which amazed me considering most people don't take a second glance at the sky. Phoned it in to the weather office, as did half of Winnipeg I hear!

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  26. Justin..

    Can't you let us enjoy our puny little FC without us drooling over your awesome tornado videos?! :)

    j/k.. cool video. Love the sped up part showing that rotating lowering wall cloud.. cool stuff! Congrats on a successful trip!

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  27. I missed today's funnel clouds but I do recall seeing one many years ago. Correct me if I'm wrong, but are funnel clouds a big deal as far as tornadoes are concerned? Although tornadoes may originate from funnel clouds, not all funnel clouds are serious contenders for tornado-dom? Am I right, or am I right?

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  28. Rob!

    If people we calling in a funnel cloud report today and it was a day when a SEVERE thunderstorm watch in effect I wonder why Environment Canada would not issue a tornado warning!

    I mean I know it was a cold core funnel day but it was also a day of potential supercells as per reading environment Canada weather discussion at 7:00 AM!

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  29. daniel.. The funnel clouds today were developing out of TCU and weak thunderstorm cells.. and were not reaching the ground. These were not forming out of supercells. Because of this, EC maintained a severe tstm watch and mentioned that funnel clouds were being reported but were not expected to touch down as tornadoes, which is essentially what happened. Had there been evidence or reports of stronger rotation or touchdowns, they would have likely upgraded to a tornado watch. It's something EC wrestles with every year.. trying to differentiate between the "cold core" funnel/weak tornado cases, and the classic supercell strong tornado situations.

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  30. @Daniel P:
    I think Environment Canada only issues tornado warnings if one or more of three things happen:
    1. radar detected for several minutes
    2. damage reported
    3. touchdown of a funnel

    It would be nice to see my first tornado warning in the city, but then people would be going crazy.

    Also, remember a week or two back on another post that I thought it would be slightly funny if there was snow in the morning then a funnel cloud in the afternoon because of TWN's prediction of a snow-rain mix day? Yeah... that kind of happened, just without the snow.

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  31. Some heavier downpours reported over the north end of the city again this afternoon with 15-25 mm reported over E St Paul/northeast Winnipeg areas.. Just 1 mm at my place in the southwest today, plus 6 mm last night.

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  32. So it looks like the next while will be unsettled, with showers and the off chance of thunderstorms for the next few days. Nothing too impressive, other than being a modest reflection of available ground moisture. Should be an interesting July/August.

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  33. I'd like to ask one more question Rob!!!

    I noticed at 2:18 and 2:19 pm the observation at the Winnipeg airport was a funnel cloud!

    Now lets say that funnel cloud reached the ground and became a tornado will the observation actually say tornado???

    What I'm asking does Environment Canada have a Tornado observation icon ????

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  34. Daniel, as far as I can tell, the icon shown for funnel clouds and tornadoes is the same. I had to go through all of the icons in developing the mobile site, and found only the one icon, which looks like a tornado.

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  35. ahhhh.... now I know!

    Thanks for that Buffalo Seven!

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  36. The METAR observation code for a funnel cloud is FC, and a tornado is +FC, so it even sort of makes sense that there's only one icon, given that the "base" condition is the same. Like how rain is RA and heavy rain is +RA. So a tornado is just a "heavy" funnel cloud :)

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  37. Don't look now but it looks like southern Manitoba is poised for another 1 in 50 year epic rainfall starting next Thursday and lasting into Sunday afternoon. A slow moving Colorado low will be spawned from another deep trough digging in from the west coast late next week. The Gulf of Mexico will be opened up to allow copious amounts of deep moisture to stream northward setting the stage for another prolonged widespread heavy rain event. MRF rainfall amounts suggest a general 75 to 125 mm rainfall event with likely higher amounts if training thunderstorms develop as expected. If pattern unfolds as models are suggesting this event could rival or exceed the event from last weekend. Boy are we paying the price and more for the nice April we had. Just a waterlogged memory now.

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  38. Is anyone thinking this year's summer could be worse than last year's. Long range certainly doesn't hint at a warm up and things are looking similar to last year...not good!

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  39. Will we ever get a summer, if that's true anonymous!? This WOULD BE the 3rd lousy summer in a row, in my opinion. I like our hot summers, when they happen!

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  40. Chris - Windsor Park3:26 PM, June 05, 2010

    Yes I am worried about next weekend as well. Though last week, the models were hinting at 2 lows back to back...now they're advertising a giant Colorado low. I said it then and I will say it now (because it meakes me feel better) Its just too early to tell.
    I noticed today alot of people getting to their basements after last weekend's deluge. There is ALOT of ruined furnitire in the Windsor Park area. I hope they hold off on refurnishing their basements until next weekend passes. Even if the low misses us, its better to heir on the side of caution.

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  41. @The Buffalo Seven
    Actually, I looked through the numbered images, and icon 42 (which would be http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/weathericons/42.gif ) actually has debris at the bottom, which would be used for tornado observations. Icon 41 doesn't have debris, so it would be used for funnel cloud observations.

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  42. Yes, next weekend looks interesting..setup is there for another heavy rainfall event, but still too early to say if Winnipeg and RRV will get it. Certainly bears watching though.. What I don't like is the wet weekend pattern that seems to be developing. I sure hope that's not a trend of things to come!

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  43. Wow, did not expect this king of rain this evening. Thunderstorm giving heavy rain for a good 20-30 minutes so far! Only 2 strikes of intense lightning, better than nothing=D

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  44. Wow Rob! I've measured 15 mm of rain so far in the past 45 minutes!! It's starting to calm, but still raining quite steadily. Road started to get quite full of water, but thankfully rain started to subside. I see you only got about 2 mm Rob, it's quite localized this event (on the radar, I got the bullseye!)

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  45. General amounts of 5-10 mm reported over the city between 8:30 and 10 pm. 15 mm seems a bit on the high side, but I guess it's possible under some of those heavier echoes. My station was mainly west of the heaviest band that tracked from northwest Winnipeg over downtown into the south end.

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  46. Yeah south end here got lots of rain and as Jewels said "got hit by the bullseye"! We even had a short power outage for about 15 seconds after a lightning strike a little too close to home. Just enough to make the clocks reset of course.

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  47. heavy rain here in South-central winnipeg for about 1 hour, 3 cracks of thunder...about 15 mm of rain

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  48. I live about 2km north of Rob's house - near the airport - and I got 9mm of pcpn out of that.

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  49. Do severe thunderstorms look like a good possibility tomorrow afternoon and evening?

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  50. Winnipeg is unlikely to get severe storms tomorrow... double barreled low moves thru but main baroclinicity/ upper level energy stay south over central plains.

    We will likely see some general rain and embedded convection tonite associated with warm advection. Surface trough comes through RRV midday but SE Manitoba may see enough clearing and heating to destabilize the atmosphere. I would expect pulse type storms or clusters putting down locally heavy rain due to slow motion.. shear is lacking for better organization.

    We may see some non-severe post frontal convection form in dry slot and wrap into our area (RRV). Maybe another cold core funnel day with upper low overhead.

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  51. PS...

    We'll have to see if MCS devolping over Iowa will cut off supply of moisture to our convection overnite. LLJ then targets SW Ontario Monday nite with more strong storms and heavy rain. Things start getting more intersting for us by the end of the week as upper level energy finally builds north again and SW flow develops. Strong MCSs will start affecting us instead of sourthern Ontario.

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  52. Environment Canada forecast for Winnipeg tonight is calling for no rain or thunder!

    I have a feeling they will be changing that shortly!!!!

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  54. Wow daniel P =Þ, didn't take long for that to get answered. They say chance of showers now already =D
    And thanks (other) Daniel for the answer. Answers all my questions ! =D

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  56. Flew over and around a lot of that today btw Calgary and Wpg and hoped that nightfall would reduce the risk?/

    If our weather is going to be lousy every weekend I plan to follow Daniel P's lead and travel farther away .

    Does anyone know the website for BC Ferries?

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  57. Well it looks like Environment Canada changed Winnipeg's forecast again and is now calling for showers to begin soon!

    I would even expect a few rumbles of thunder as the rain showers move in!

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  58. SPC has a 2% chance of tornado and a 5% chance of wind and hail for North Dakota butting up against Southern Manitoba!

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  59. Thanks for those ICONS Brad and Connors . I also spent hours in the Code tables and Character Palette hunting with no luck.

    That was an interesting Current Condition Icon on OBS this morning (at 840am ) ??

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  60. Drifting Snow??

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  61. Rob, was that icon intended to remind us that Rain even on every weekend is better than *###//#.

    If so, it succeeded.

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  62. That drifting snow icon sometimes shows up due to a coding error with the METAR report from the airport. The program sees VCSH (shower in the vicnty or distant shower) and treats it as "DS" or drifting snow..

    Rest assured there is no drifting snow out there.. at least not here in Charleswood. (Maybe it's a lot colder at the airport :))

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