Friday, June 18, 2010
Friday washout to give way to better weekend..
Cool wet and windy weather today will give way to improving conditions for the weekend as a major storm system over southern MB gradually pulls away into Northern Ontario. The system brought heavy rains across portions of western MB, southern SK, and southern AB where over 100 mm of rainfall was recorded over the past 2 days. Further south, the system triggered one of the worst tornado outbreaks over the Northern Plains in years with over 20 tornadoes reported across North Dakota and Minnesota yesterday afternoon, resulting in extensive damage and at least 3 fatalities. Winnipeg and the Red River valley of southern MB generally escaped the worst of this system with minimal rainfall, and little in the way of severe weather. The weekend should be a lot better weatherwise over southern MB with a mix of sun and cloud, although models indicate a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms Sunday with some weak instability moving across the area.
Posted by rob at 12:13 PM
Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)
Nice new layout on the blog there Rob. ThanksReplyDelete
Thanks.. using a new template from Google.. looks a little brighter and cheerier. Lord knows we can use some brightening up around here!ReplyDelete
Only measured 11.5 mm of rain today. I say only as I see that you Rob, measured about 15 mm so far today.ReplyDelete
Looking forward for the nicer weekend =D Will be a change from all the recent miserable weekends we've had!
Blown away by your new site Rob. Brightened up one window today and we like it.ReplyDelete
Yeah, the rain today has been relentless. Every time I thought it was just about over, another squall would come in with another quick 2-3 mm. Not pleasant. And for all you golfers out there who have ever cursed the weatherman for a sub-par forecast on your golf day, you got your revenge today. The annual weather office golf tournament was rained out today.. :)ReplyDelete
I for one would love not to see another raindrop until October.
Wow.. just saw some aerial footage of the tornado damage in Wadena Minnesota.. quite the damage path! Over 200 homes damaged or destroyed!ReplyDelete
Some of the rainfall totals for Alberta are now approaching 160 mm
On a similar subject (or the northern equivalent) are those videos (CBC and CTV News channels)of the TransCanada shut down due to flooding in AB and Sask. It reminds me that all this water ends up in Lake Winnipeg.ReplyDelete
CBC Sakatchewan Ditchboarding
CTV Prairie Flooding
Looks like the southern Prairies have been dealing with flood after BIBLICAL flood this spring!
The latest GFS run is showing yet again pockets of very heavy rain in the southern Prairies next week!
Rob wishes for not another drop of rain until October.....LOL
I'm with ROB on the Sun casting but justin case (pun intended) I'm still working on the Agassiz ArkReplyDelete
Strange but true irony .The Mentor Minnesota Tornado Video is also available from the CTV Linkage above and those CBC Ditchboarders are in Wadena Saskatchewan where a Tornado hit two years ago.ReplyDelete
The CTV Prairie Flooding and US Tornado coverage Clip is atReplyDelete
CTV Prairie Flooding/ US Tornadoes
Wow! Thank you guys very much for the videos. Hard to believe those tornadoes were so close, and it could have been here... Wonder if we'll get our turn later on this June, or July !!ReplyDelete
I always forget what Manitoba's average number of tornadoes a year is, does anybody remember?
Manitoba averages about 9 tornadoes a year.. but that number varies widely from one year to another. Some years only have a few, others have many more. I believe the most reported in a single year was 22 in 1992. The number also does not reflect the intensity of tornadoes in any given year. You can have a high tornado count with a number of weak tornadoes, or a slow year with a few violent tornadoes.ReplyDelete
Note also that the average number of tornadoes is based on the number of tornadoes reported and verified.. the actual number is likely higher due to tornadoes that go unreported in remote areas of the province.
Don't know the average but the last time we had over 150mm (177 mm) or more rain in May was 1977 not a good year. See St Malo/ Rosa F4 TornadoReplyDelete
List of Canadian Tornados
or see Winnipeg Free Press archives page 91 Sept 3 1977(the whole page) Fujita came to Mb to examine Swath 10 mile long up to 1K wide of Tree Stumps less than 25 Kms NORTH of The US Minn. Border on Hwy 59
EC please note
EC did issue a warning for Winnipeg after the Twister went thru St MaloReplyDelete
That 77 twister was in July and it reached 30+ the previous 2 days and the mid 20+ on that day.ReplyDelete
It was Hot and humid, unlike Thursday.
Climate prediction center is putting southern Manitoba in the zone of above-normal temperatures for the next two weeks...hopefully this trend continues into the summer!ReplyDelete
Chance of a severe thunderstorm in Southern Manitoba tomorrow night????
Tomorrow could see some marginally severe storms if sufficient wind shear is in place. Most models put 1000 to 1500J/kg of CAPE over southern Manitoba assuming temp/td spreads of 25/16. Depending on which model you look at, we may have 40 to 50kts of deep shear in place, or less than 30kts. If we did see 40 to 50kts, then I think isolated severe storms are quite possible. However, if shear is similar to Saskatchewan today, then expect to see strong pulse storms, but nothing severe.ReplyDelete
Lack of a strong focusing mechanism will also prevent good organization. Piece of energy from SK should serve as the trigger tomorrow.
I see one lone thunderstorm in western Manitoba that has held together quite well!!!
I wonder if it could make it into Winnipeg area????
Some of the models are showing some very heavy convection in Southern Manitoba on Tuesday!
SPC has a slight risk for areas south of the border!!!
New layout is nice, but very laggy.ReplyDelete
Wow, those storm clouds are growing quickly to the south and west of here now =D Cloud to the southwest has an anvil to it. Starting to fire up this afternoon =D. Can believe it, it's quite humid out there!ReplyDelete
Very subtle surface trough just to our south with shallow moisture pooling along it. With shear only around 20 to 30 kts.. look for pulse type tstorms to form along trough and drift SE. Will have to watch for any formation off lake breezes or Manitoba escarpment that could clip Winnipeg, but best moisture is south and east...ReplyDelete
Looks like that subtle trough set up a convergence line south of Winnipeg between a light southerly flow over the far southern RRV and light WNW to the north.. just enough to touch off some afternoon thunderstorms along the convergence line. CWB network reports 5-10 mm of rain through the Brunkild-Lowe Farm areas with these passing cells. Southerly outflow out of the storms has dropped temperatures from 27 to 22C just south and west of the city.. which will likely be felt over the south end of Winnipeg shortly.ReplyDelete
Small cell popping over west perimeter which will be affecting the parts of the city...ReplyDelete
...or not lol, cell fell apart. A few more trying to pop along the outflow boundary that Rob mentioned so we'll see.ReplyDelete
Interesting cell around the SK/MB/ND border region. KMBX radar is showing slight rotation on the cell, with svr warnings in ND on it. The cell's outflow looks to be spawning more cells, so we'll see what happens in the SW corner of MB with this.ReplyDelete
Could you please do a poll!!!!
I got one.....
Will Winnipeg airport hit 30 C in June????
Might as well toss a coin on that one!!!!
So what's in the cards for Tuesday. EC did a change up from showers to only 30% chance of showers while TWN is still calling for some heavy rain.ReplyDelete
After several unusually strong systems for this late in the season... we have suddenly entered a more quiet summer mode complete with subtle pressure patterns, little dynamic forcing, weak/washed out fronts etc.ReplyDelete
Disorganized southerly flow and evapotranspiration will continue allowing shallow moisture to pool and keep relatively high SB CAPE values. Compact upper disturbance moves thru tomorrow.. GFS seem too strong with the feature generating plenty of lift/clouds and even an MCS. Not buying this solution.. main LLJ and warm front remain well to the south along northern fringe of subtropical ridge. NAM is weaker and further south with this disturbance.
Best guess is that there will be weak, scattered convection along old frontal, outflow and lake breeze boundaries during day light hours, but nothing organized. By Wednesday, high pressure tries to build behind weak trough that pushes best moisture south and east. Looks as though we even get backdoored by arctic front on Thursday.
This sets the stage for more warm frontal precip on Friday as deep moisture/LLJ return and overspread the fairly sharp baroclinic zone. (GFS scenario). What say the others on this muddled pattern?
Flash flood watch issued for all of North Dakota!
They state this week could be a very active one with lots of heavy rain potential!!!
I already see that with the pace that the thunderstorms are moving this morning.....at a snails pace!
NWS AT 951 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATEDReplyDelete
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RADAR ESTIMATES OF AROUND 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN THIS
MORNING IN AN AREA BETWEEN NECHE AND PEMBINA.
Amazing how those storms seem to trip over the 49th.ReplyDelete