Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Unsettled weather moving in for holiday weekend

After a summerlike week of sunshine and warm temperatures, it looks like the weather will be getting a little more unsettled for the holiday weekend. A developing low pressure system over the Northern Plain states will bring an area of showers and thunderstorms into southern MB by Saturday night, with locally strong thunderstorms bringing a threat of heavy rain and hail to some localities. This activity will move east of the RRV into NW Ontario during Sunday, but another area of showers is forecast to spread in on holiday Monday along with cooler temperatures. The weekend won't be a total washout, with dry weather most of Saturday and parts of Sunday, but be prepared for the potential of locally heavy rain at times, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Based on current models, here's what the weekend is looking like for Winnipeg and the RRV...

Saturday..Partly sunny, breezy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm especially over western MB and Interlake. High 24.
Saturday night..Showers and thunderstorms developing. Some locally strong thunderstorms possible with heavy rain and hail.
Sunday..Showers and thunderstorms moving east then partly sunny. High 24.
Monday..Cloudy and cooler with showers developing. high 20.

More details as we get closer to the weekend. Stay tuned.


  1. Oh I'd love to finally see some interesting summer weather over the RRV. The near-30 temps of this past week sure have been nice, though.

  2. 27 C in Winnipeg as of 12:00!!

    30 C almost looks certain!!!

  3. High risk of severe thunderstorms down south today!

    Justin and Dave should be pretty excited!

  4. W00T! My thermometer says 30C!
    Of course, the airport only 28C..

  5. I see Rob's thermometer is reading 29.7 C so far!

    Can't someone bring a blowtorch over there so we can hit our first 30 C!

  6. Hey, I'd love to see 30C as much as the next guy.. but no blow torches near my weather station! :)

    Officially, a high of 29.2C at Winnipeg airport today, and 29.8C at the Forks.. so our first 30 degree day of 2010 remains to be reached. There was a 30 degree reading in southern MB today though.. Victoria Beach hit 30.5C, the Canadian hot spot.

    Good set up for elevated (warm frontal) thunderstorms over western/central ND Friday night pushing into SW Manitoba by Saturday morning. Good push of warm moist air at 850 mb aided by strong 50-60 kt southerly jet may produce some locally strong thunderstorms over those areas. Stay tuned..

  7. Hi Rob!

    Reading the National weather service
    discussion for Grand Forks this morning!

    Sounds like Saturday night they are concerned about a severe weather outbreak!!!

    I would assume we in the Red River valley will also receive thunderstorms???

  8. I wonder where Dan from Grand Forks is?????

    Here usually makes a appearance once in a while!

    Maybe he might have some tidbits on this weekend's storm potential???

  9. Chris - Windsor Park4:01 PM, May 20, 2010

    Looks like the models are having a tough time with this system set to arrive on the weekend. EC is flip-flopping all over the place.

  10. Ya, I'm just absolutely confused right now.. Everyone says something different, or it keeps changing!!

  11. Yeah, model guidance has been having trouble figuring out the evolution of these upcoming systems this weekend. Latest guidance has backed off on the heavy activity for Saturday night, as the best forcing is now forecast south of the border in the Dakotas or Minnesota. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are forecast mainly west of the RRV Friday night into Saturday which will continue to spread north during the day. Sunday looks dry now, and much of Monday as well before a chance of showers by Monday night. Bottom line.. looks like less rainfall for the RRV this weekend, with most of the activity bypassing us to our west with the first wave, and to our southeast with the second. More details tomorrow..

  12. Latest SPC convective outlook puts a large portion of southern Manitoba under a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow. We'll have to wait and see how that plays out.

  13. Looks like a threat of severe overnight into Saturday morning mainly western Dakotas with the warm front.. then a severe threat with the cold front Saturday night mainly over eastern Dakotas. We'll have to see how much of that activity spills into southern MB.. but at this point, the greatest threat of severe storms appears it will be south of the border. That doesn't discount the possibility of some thunderstorms with heavy rain and small hail across southern MB Saturday into Saturday night. Stay tuned..