Sunday, May 09, 2010

Some rain tomorrow.. then a warming trend later this week

A band of rain over southern SK is forecast to spread into southern Manitoba tonight into Monday. The rain is expected to reach Winnipeg and the Red River valley Monday morning. General amounts of 5-10 mm are expected with this band of rain, with local amounts of 15 mm. The rain should move off Monday night with some lingering cloud and a chance of showers for Tuesday. Warmer and drier weather is expected for the latter half of the week, with 20 degree temperatures likely returning by the weekend.


  1. All I can say is.. bring on the heat!

    All the rest of the trees should blossom once we get that heat!

  2. Band of rain has dropped about 2-5 mm over southern MB this morning.. most places in the RRV should see similar amounts today, with localized amounts of 5-10 mm possible.

  3. Dewpoint went from +22C to -7C in 2 hours in Oklahoma city this that's a dryline!

  4. Looks like this upcoming weekend is going to be a stunning one!

    Assuming the forecast high's don't change to much!

  5. Rob!!!

    Why does Environment Canada issue a special weather statement for Ontario EVERY DAY and not for anyone else?????

    It is always concerning severe weather potential!

  6. The OSPC (Ontario Storm Prediction Centre) in Toronto issues a daily convective forecast during the warm season. I think PASPC may do the same thing... or atleast they did in the past? The OSPC also issues a forecast discussion equivalent to the focn45 from PASPC. Its intersting to notice the very different style of their discussions... there are several references to american models which I have never come across on the focn45's. Overall it reads more like the NWS regional office discussions. I only can find one site which reproduces the OPSC synopsis, however the alphanumeric header is removed. Link on my name.

    Anyways, yet another system is progged to miss our area to the SE. Upper low will track thru S Dakota into Minnesota with precip shield brushing int'l border again. American RRV continues to build up a surplus of moisture. This will act as a nice buffer against deficits potentially developing later in the warm season. One would also expect to see very high dewpoints pooling off to our south once ET really kicks in this summer.

  7. Yes, that bulletin is a convective weather statement issued by the Toronto office between May 1st and Oct 1st that highlights the potential for severe thunderstorms over Ontario. It's only done for that region.. there isn't an equivalent bulletin issued elsewhere in the country. As Daniel noted, PASPC office in Winnipeg/Edmonton produces a daily FOCN45 bulletin that discusses potential significant weather across the Prairies, including severe thunderstorms. However, this is a more technical discussion compared to the convective weather statement issued by OSPC.

    We'll have to keep an eye on that next system progged to move to our southeast tomorrow. Models show some rain brushing SE MB from Emerson to Sprague. Hopefully it stays that way, instead of pushing further north over us which sometimes happens with these systems. I'm eager for some warm dry weather again!

  8. Unfortunately there is no caveat regarding tomorrow's system in today's FOCN. Models like GFS and GEM appear a bit further north with wrap around precip shield. NAM is now significantly different with precip shiled well into SE Manitoba.

    Its too bad that the OSPC office can focus solely on Ontario while PASPC is saddled with covering the vast, remote arctic with its sparse observation network and population. Things would obviously be easier if there were a seperate office for the northern region in Iqaluit or Yellowknife. ...And to think that the even the Winnipeg office was almost closed *sigh*

  9. Rob!

    This weekend is looking very nice !

    Time to break out the beach ball and

    bathing suit!!!

  10. Yep, it's looking mighty fine.. after 2 weeks of below normal temperatures, it looks like the pattern is flipping to above normal for the next 7 to 10 days at least.. If you believe the GFS, we could be getting close to 30C by the end of next week!

  11. The next 10 consecutive days of Sun and >20C to 27C is the spectacular Golf forecast from Intellicast this morning.

    Is it too good to be true?

  12. Some rainfall reports from yesterday's system that clipped SE MB..

    Kenora....... 17 mm
    Falcon Lake.. 14 mm
    Sprague...... 13 mm
    Snowflake..... 5 mm
    Vita.......... 4 mm
    Winkler....... 1 mm
    Morden........ 1 mm

    Showers just barely made it to Winnipeg, but there were a few that grazed mainly the east and south ends of the city by late afternoon with a trace to 0.5 mm.

    Looking forward to the nice dry warm stretch coming up!