Sunday, April 11, 2010
Warm windy and wet weather moving in Tuesday
A storm system pushing into the US southwest is expected to intensify Monday night into Tuesday over eastern Montana bringing increasingly windy and unsettled weather over southern MB. The first wave of clouds from this system is pushing in tonight into Monday with scattered showers along the international border. The storm system will intensify Monday night into Tuesday as it moves into Montana, bringing an increasing southerly flow of warm moist air over the Dakotas into southern MB along a warm front. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are likely along this front Monday night into Tuesday with locally heavy rain possible especially over SW Manitoba where showers will be more persistent. Some thunderstorms may even produce hail over parts of southern MB overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. As the front pushes northward across southern MB Tuesday into Wednesday, gusty southeast winds will draw in warm air from the US plains, with temperatures possibly hitting the 20C mark for the first time this season across the RRV and SE Manitoba.
Posted by rob at 10:45 PM
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SPC indicating a slight risk of severe tstms over North Dakota Monday night due to possible large hail from elevated nocturnal tstms. Some of these storms may move into SW MB overnight into Tuesday morning.ReplyDelete
The early pcpn seems to hug the 49th as if it were seeking a weak spot to slip through customs. Is CRA (Canada Revenue Agency) that sophisticated or is the same 8 month pattern at work here.ReplyDelete
Will any of it move north up the RRV later?
Keep an eye on the radar as the storms will really getting going once that jet gets cranking later tonight!
Looks like some storms have already formed just south of the border and are heading north into Southern Manitoba within the next hour!ReplyDelete
Those storms are weakening as they move north towards Manitoba.. radar indicating small hail possible but cloud tops are decaying so I don't think they'll do much in Manitoba. The main action is firing up further south near the eastern SD/ND border. I suspect line will grow westward across southern ND this evening as LLJ cranks up and taps 850 mb moisture plume.ReplyDelete
I see Environment Canada has issued a Special weather Statement for thunderstorms!ReplyDelete
Yeah....Rob! Looking at the surface dewpoint and dry easterly flow makes you wonder how any thunderstorm could survive in that environment!
Once again the nasty winter weather preceded by Thunder Storm. see Severe Winter Weather WarningReplyDelete
Will we see any of this (30 cm Cypress Hills SK) by Wednesday?
Do you guys think we could get a good soaking in Winnipeg today with all those storms now in eastern North Dakota, or will it all dissipate and weaken, as it's really had been doing a lot overnight.ReplyDelete
We should get a good soaking later on this morning when the airmass gets a little more unstable!
The air is just to dry right now!
At the rate that the month of April is going we could end up way above normal for the month!ReplyDelete
A high of 21 C tomorrow~
Break out the bathing suit and suntan lotion!
Snow will miss us on the eastern edge of that Prairie Snow Storm.ReplyDelete
Great graphics and explanation on TWN at Major Winter Prairie Storm
Can anyone tell me what a surface reflection is?????ReplyDelete
That is the term used in Environment Canada's discussion!
I meant to post The Prairie Winter Storm page at TWN is well done with an excellent explanation and graphics and with updates as required.ReplyDelete
Click on my name.
The term "surface reflection" is a term meteorologists use to draw the link between the upper levels and lower levels in a weather system, be it high or low pressure. Any decent system begins with things going on aloft, which induce things to happen at the surface.
The specific example you cite talks about the surface reflection of an upper impulse being a 996 mb low. The height falls associated with the approach of the upper impulse (upper trough) induce surface pressures to fall. So the surface reflection of an approaching upper impulse can be either an area of strong pressure falls or a low pressure system itself.
Axis of deep moisture moving in finally... however forcing from LLJ appears to lack focus. Main baroclinicity and frontogenesis also shift rapidly northwards tonite. Will be interesting to see if any cells can develop in warm advection regime overnite over S Manitoba before moisture/jet shift off into NW Ontario.ReplyDelete
Hopefully we will get enough clearing tomorrow as mid level dry slots tries to punch in from the dakotas...
With a "low" of only 14 C tonight will that break a record of the warmest overnight low for this day????ReplyDelete
Look at that line of storms in South and North Dakota!
Hopefully that will head into Southern Manitoba overnight!
You might be right with that line of storms pushing to the north east, lets just hope it doesnt dissipate as it's been doing all day long. Also, I noticed more activity poping up around Minot (ND) wich I predict will become intense activity as we go on through the evening. Looks like southern MB will get hit hard this evening.
I was taken by surprise on the thunderstorm activity that has exploded south of Minot!!
Yes it did surprize me too! Looking at the forecast of the surface analysis if the storms do persist into the night, the front looks to be passing through Winnipeg around 3am. But only time will tell if the storms make it to Winnipeg.ReplyDelete
I think we're dodging a bullet this time. We could use some rain though, lots of grass fires lately...ReplyDelete
Well, all that rain they were predicting was a non-event this time, at least I didn't see a drop.ReplyDelete
One interesting thing was a great display of high level quilted cloud around 7:00 PM. There must be a very distinct change in the atmosphere at the interface of the quilted clouds.
But it's turning into a really wild wind event.
Looks like the first 20C day of the year in SE MB. I wouldn't be surprised if Winnipeg managed 20C as well. By contrast, Steinbach's first 20C day last year was May 6th. If today is at least 20C, then it will be about 3 weeks earlier than last year.ReplyDelete
Winnipeg airport already at 16 C this morning!ReplyDelete
With a warming SSW wind 20 C is almost certain!
High temperature is +20.7C so far today in Steinbach. Excellent day, with winds being lighter than expected. I think a high of +22C is likely.ReplyDelete
21 C at Winnipeg !!ReplyDelete
Break out the beach ball and sunglasses!!!
Is that a record today???
Just to let you know that on your web page the high temperature on your thermometer only goes up to
So today it is literally off the charts!!!
We're not even close to the record of 28.9°C today.ReplyDelete
Will there be some storms along the cold front anybody? I mean, with all this ''excessive heat'' today, wow. I know it's dry though..
Looks like some convective activity poping up around Brandon and to the east, forming a line from Gladstone to the east of Minot (ND). I doubt it will make it to Winnipeg since there is a huge change in humidity from Winnipeg to Brandon - Wpg; 33%, Brandon;67% But hey, you never know!ReplyDelete
High of +22.6C in Steinbach. Excellent weather for a change.ReplyDelete
84 km/h wind gust in Portage La Prairie at 6:00ReplyDelete
Look out for high winds in Winnipeg within the next 20 minutes>>>ReplyDelete
Band of showers going through just north of Winnipeg.. mainly aloft but a few spits hitting the ground. Band is initiating some of those gusty winds as it moves through, mainly from the virga downdrafts. Line marks leading edge of cooler airmass off to the west with single digit temps in Brandon right now. Still no rain in Winnipeg.. which we can use soon. As mentioned earlier, grass fires are becoming an increasing concern, especially if we get strong winds. This morning I noticed the pavement was damp and it smelled like we had rain overnight. Turns out it was just dampness from a dewpoint spiking up to 10C around 8 am.ReplyDelete
As Scott mentioned, a beautiful day in the dry slot today with highs of 21C in Winnipeg, our first 20C reading of the year.
Good eye on the temperature chart Daniel! I modified the scale upward today.. don't think we'll be seeing -30C again for awhile!