Friday, April 16, 2010

Beautiful weekend on tap

Beautiful weather is on tap this weekend over southern Manitoba as high pressure brings plenty of sunshine along with light winds and temperatures in the upper teens to 20C. The light winds and strengthening April sunshine will make it feel even warmer, making it an ideal weekend to enjoy the outdoors. Have a great weekend!


  1. Very dry out there today.. got down to 15% relative humidity at my site this afternoon, with some gusty NE winds and dewpoints around -10C. Red flag conditions.. don't burn stuff today!

    Otherwise, beautiful weather out there. So nice to get early spring weather and hold on to it! Trees are budding at least 2 weeks earlier than last year, and I'll be opening up the backyard screenroom this weekend, a full month earlier than last year.

  2. It's amazing what a difference a year makes!


    I have a feeling that this spring/summer is going to be a HOT and DRY one!

  3. Shall we redo 1980??

  4. April 1980
    One day it reached....
    34.3 C !!!!!


    Is that a typo.....LOL

  5. Nope.. not a typo. 1980 was the warmest driest sunniest April on record. That was followed by an equally hot and dry May, which featured a 9-day 30+C heat wave that peaked with a 37.0C on May 22nd!

  6. Rob!

    Are you saying in May 1980 that there was 9 STRAIGHT DAYS of 30 C plus or there was a total of 9 days of 30 C?????

    I can't imagine that weather setup or pattern that would be needed to produce that hot weather so soon!!!!

  7. Deja Vu...I hope not... think spring 1980 followed a Cold Wet flooded 1979 spring.

    Inground pools were open. Leaves were out by the 23rd. Strong south winds caused many grass fires along the CNR rail line (Wilkes Ave) . This eventually resulted in the entire area of scrub and trees between Wilkes and Grant Ave (Charleswood) and Harstone and Buckingham West to East ablaze with two thirds of Wpg firefighting equipment fighting it.

    Rob a good reason to have a Red Flag warning n'est pas.

  8. And we didn't have to wait for Mt St Helens eruption in May to have those burning Red Sunsets??

  9. Like this year the dry weather pattern started in February.

  10. Spring 1980 had other features similar to this year like a 19th century quiet Volcano becoming active on Mar 15 and venting for 7 months

    see Mt St Helens Timeline

  11. Is this years warm weather likely to stay as long as last years cold'n wet.

  12. Curious Gal

    Here's hoping for a hot and dry summer!!!!

  13. A major grass fire broke out today in the North Perimeter HWY area !

    Until we get some rain,
    fire conditions are very extreme!

  14. Last summer the cold weather was attributed to the high latitude blocking pattern in place ......

    Is there a comparable but warm'n dry long term pattern this year?

    -Good News about both types,-they are not ideal for mosquitoes.

  15. CuriousGal..

    Absolutely. A high latitude blocking pattern can bring us warm and dry weather if we happen to be under the upper ridge. Weather systems are steered around this upper ridge and we remain dry and warmer than normal. Last year, that upper blocking ridge was over the West Coast..and we paid the price downstream with cooler than normal and unsettled weather while they had a hot dry summer.

  16. daniel..

    Yes indeed, May 1980 had 9 straight days of 30C or more (19th-27th), and 11 for the month. It had as many 30C days as the entire summer that year!

  17. Hi

    Thanks for the info on the 1980 heat...crazy. I am working the forecast desk tonight and looks dry for quite some time as blocking pattern is in place. Looks like next weekend system to hit places like South Dakota into southern Minnesota and maybe southern North Dakota....but northern ND and northern MN into Manitoba dry.

    Concerning fire wx...northern MN very very dry. Large brush fires in at least 3 areas with all 3 airline tankers (used for water dispersal) assigned to the state for fires are in use.

    We did have around a third of an inch earlier in the month here in Grand Forks and that was enough to jump start the greening process. Trees are budding out quickly as well down here.

  18. Concerning fire wx ops for the NWS offices...

    Our office does a twice daily routine fire weather forecast detailing high temps/min and max RH/wind/smoke disperson/mixing hgt and transport winds.

    Federal and state agencies are required to get a fire weather spot forecast from the NWS before they burn. The burn manager enters the lat/lon of the burn and sends it to us via web and we get it and then return the forecast with specific temps/rh, etc from our gridded database.

    Each state has a fire weather ops plan and specific conditions which are needed for a red flag warning. Most deal with winds (need to be at or above 20 or 25 mph) along with RH below 20 pct.

  19. Thanks for the info Dan. The situation in northern MN is pretty much the story across all of southern MB and much of the Prairies.. very dry. Other than about 10 mm of rain and wet snow on the 2-3rd, we've had nothing all month, and very little in March. Our soil moisture levels were lower than yours going into the fall and winter, so we're at an elevated fire risk if we don't get rain soon. Luckily the winds have been light this weekend, otherwise we could have been at a risk of some serious fires.

  20. We've already had three 20C days so far this April. When you add in tomorrow and possibly Tuesday, we will have 4-5 such days with the month only 2/3 over. Last April the warmest temperature in Winnipeg was +18.1C and we only saw five days above 15C. Compare that with this April...only three day below 10C (and all those were 9C).

    Hopefully the summer will follow this trend.

  21. Sunday - Hit 22.1C at 15:40hrs. We could really use some rain now; my yard is bone dry. I've only had 8.8mm of pcpn so far this month with evapotranspiration being five times greater. This is not helping the grass fire situation around the city.

  22. The parks in the city were packed this weekend!

    Very nice weekend to say the least!

    Lets to this again next weekend!!!!

  23. Looking at 3-7 day QPF there seems to be hint of a misting..

    Chances for anything more anyone??

  24. The media weather sites appear to have lost weather icons that aren't bright yellow for the week and next weekend.

    Noticed in the past that by Monday noon changes in both Long and Short term forecasts occur.

  25. Major prairie rain (12Z Day 4-5 QPF) 40mm for Sask. One hopes we see it.

  26. Models agree on a storm system tracking through the central Plains this weekend bringing showers and thunderstorms mainly south of the US border. Time will tell how much of this precip will spread north over us, however at this point, models are indicating the best energy and dynamics with this next system will be south of our region. It's still early though, and precip threat areas can change significantly depending on the eventual path of this system.

  27. That is interesting. Of the media sites on ROBS-OBS,only EC maintained their yellow sun Icons for the next 7 days.

    All others show cloud/and or showers starting for some on Thursday Friday and others the Weekend. In one case all 4 days.

    Is there a major redo Monday morning in the Model Interpretation??

    Does anyone know the timing of these updates?

    Is there one media outlet that is first with Mondays new weekly forecast (We're first with the new weather news!!)?

  28. Similar to the Temperature on the weather channel or some of the Media outlets... Reported once an hour usually based on the previous top of the hour (EC) and updated as late as 90 minutes later.

    This is Canada and the variability in Temp within one hour can be extreme. Calgary has had temperature variations of 30C in one hour to 90 minute periods (love those chinooks)

    That's what makes the OBS site extremely useful and some broadcast info of questionable use.

  29. Re: discrepancies in the extended forecast from EC's.

    EC's extended forecasts for the Prairies (i.e. beyond tomorrow) are automated from model output. There is no human intervention at all. Forecasts are derived from the Canadian GLB model for Days 3-5, and an ensemble model for Days 6 and 7. Forecasts are updated daily at 4 am and 4 pm with new model runs. It's been noted that EC's extended forecasts tend to have a dry bias, especially with the ensemble forecasts for days 6 and 7 where sunny forecasts tend to dominate.

    Other sources will often have different forecasts in the extended range for one main reason.. they are using a different model (usually an American model) with a different forecast algorithm. This usually explains the forecast discrepancies (especially from Accuweather or other American based sources) Some sources may also alter the model output themselves to adjust the extended forecast, but that would usually only be a local media source who has more time to devote to the local product.

    Bottom line.. check alternate sources for a second or third opinion when it comes to the long range forecast. EC's forecast is only one opinion from one model, and a computer-generated product at that. This is why commentary found on local weather blogs can provide a lot more insight on future weather than just looking at 7 sunshine icons.

  30. RH between 10 and 15% in most areas of southern Manitoba. That is dry!

  31. Ugh, ya, it's too dry. I've never been so sick of constant sunshine. Time for rain. Where I live, I haven't measured any precipitation since April 4... Bad allergies lately too.

  32. I'm also waiting for some thunderstorms!

    Looks like I'll be waiting for quite some time!

  33. Dewpoints of -5C aren't exactly ideal for severe weather. We'll have to wait for things to green up, that way we can get a bit of transpiration going. Once we get more moisture, then thunderstorm activity can become a possibility. However, any real severe weather chances will come in May at the earliest.

  34. Rob!

    Would you have any idea how long Environment Canada has had the weather channel running on TV for????

    You know channel 48.....

    30 years???

    It's seems for as long as I can remember it is that classic look that has not changed in a very long time!

  35. Wow, why has environment canada and theweathernetwork dramatically lowered their forecasts? From 20C to 10C, even colder than 10C for a day. Meanwhile, intellicast still says 24 on friday, 20's for weekend!
    Am I dreaming! =Þ

  36. I was surprised with the temperature drop as well. Canadian GLB model shows another cool airmass building down from northern MB Friday into the weekend. They also hint at clouds and a chance of showers over southern MB by Sunday with *gasp* a chance of snow over the Riding Mtn area. So the weekend forecast of sunshine is either too optimistic, or the temperatures are too pessimistic ( or both)

    American models are not as aggressive with cooldown which explains the warmer forecasts from Intellicast (and others). European model is not as cool either. Personally, I think the cooldown is overdone, and temperatures will be warmer this weekend than currently advertised, but we'll see who's right.

  37. daniel.. re: EC's weather channel

    I'm not sure how long that channel has been in operation.. I think it started in the late 70s.. (actually around 1976) basically when cable started up here (it was Videon on the west side and another company on the east side) So it's been a Winnipeg TV staple for over 30 years I would say.

    Up until a few years ago, forecasters from here in the Winnipeg office would type in a lot of the info you saw on the pages, including the local forecast and warnings. It's all automated now..

    For a laugh, type in "Environment Canada Weather Winnipeg" into YouTube, and you'll see select clips from EC's weather channel through the 80s and 90s. A good way to see how the format has changed over the years.. (not to mention the music!)

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  39. Interesting that before Environment Canada provided a community weather channel on Videon they provided weather on Cable Channel 13. starting in 1968. Videon operated a camera which alternated between temperature and other instruments. Crude but effective and LIVE.


    "Community programming
    See also: Shaw TV Winnipeg

    Between August, 1968 and 1976, Videon used to have a simple B&W camera housed on a track go back and forth to display the weather on analog dials. At the end of one way was a small poster for advertising. This was cablecast on channel 13 until 1976 when Videon went to an all electronic text system which is still used today.

  40. Thanks for the info Jim.. I'd love to see a screen capture of that!