It was a chilly start to the day Thursday morning over southern Manitoba as an Arctic ridge of high pressure ushered in cold air over the province. In Winnipeg, early morning temperatures ranged from -19C over the north end of the city to -14C in the south (-17C at the airport) The satellite photo above clearly shows the swath of snow left over from Wednesday morning which dropped 2 to 5 cm from Riding Mountains to the east of Winnipeg. Snowcover was still evident in the north and east ends of the city this morning which helped to produce colder temperatures in those areas. Sunny skies and light winds are forecast today with temperatures rising to -6C this afternoon, well below the normal high of +2C this time of year.The good news is that temperatures will be moderating over the next few days with a major warmup expected next week. Highs in the mid teens are expected to close out the month of March, which will rank as one of the top 10 mildest on record in Winnipeg.
Interesting to see that snow slowly fade away on the satellite in the Winnipeg area throughout the day today.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow's sunny +7C forecast for Winnipeg might be optimistic based on upstream conditions and expected low track over North Dakota. Extensive low cloud deck in the warm frontal mixing zone over southern and central SK should be pushing into Winnipeg/RRV overnight and into Friday morning. With the surface low going south of Manitoba, we may be staying in that cloudy mixing zone longer than expected. If we do clear out, then +7C is likely, but if the clouds hang in, we may be closer to zero or +2C.
ReplyDeleteMy weather station will be off line for a few days, so my website will be piggybacking off of St Vital and Whyte Ridge stations for current conditions, in case you're wondering. All links remain active.
ReplyDeleteWarmed up quite nicely in Steinbach today. High temperature of -3C made today completely bearable...without the wind it actually felt somewhat warm at times.
ReplyDeleteLooking ahead to next week, the GFS is showing highs of 12, 17, 17, 15, and 14 for Monday through Friday. 20C looks like a long shot right now, but I wouldn't rule it out given how much drying has occurred in the areas that were snow free 10 or more days ago.
Wish my backyard would dry out. Too much work cleaning the mud off the dogs' feet!
ReplyDeleteThe warm up next week, if it occurs as predicted on this mornings "OBS" page, will give us the warmest March in 10 years. (between -0.5 and -1.0 Robs/EC)
ReplyDeleteSince our string of 9 consecutive cooler than normal months we appear to have Hiccupped* our way to an El Nino assisted 4 of seven top 10 warmest months. In fact our 7 month Sept to March Mean temp could be Norm +2.6C.
What about April ROB?
This might be a good time to establish a poll.
My wishcast last year was high by a nominal 6 or 7C.
Is it time for another chance?
*(every second month Norm +4C or greater
Sept +5.4C,
Nov +6.1C,
Jan +4.1C,
March +5.3C)
Rob!
ReplyDeleteYou think that 17 C on Tuesday is possible or is that just wishful thinking???
For Monday the NAM is showing around +16C for Winnipeg +18C for SE MB. I'd really like to see +20C, but I think I'll have to wait until April.
ReplyDeleteAnyone know if one colorado low after another will really happen by next week? That seems a little too exagerated, a little too stormy for Winnipeg in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteI for one would welcome a couple days of rain (only a couple..and not snow) to get rid of this dust and snow mold.
ReplyDeleteMy allergies are fierce.
Models are showing 750J/kg of CAPE over south-eastern Manitoba on Tuesday. Along with bulk shear of 50 to 70kts, we could be in for a major severe weather outbreak! (I wish...)
ReplyDeleteRob!
ReplyDeleteCould we get our first THUNDERSTORM of the season on Tuesday/ Wednesday??
If you said Thursday (April fools) with Heavy TS activity I might have doubts.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you see on Tuesday/Wednesday before Thursday/Friday??
The Manitoba Flood Report today shows the Red River rising 4.6 feet overnight from Lord Street in St Norbert south to St Adolphe due to an ice jam. Without opening the gates to the Floodway the ice is diverting over 10,000 Cu.ft. of flow into the floodway.
ReplyDeleteSee Flood Report for Manitoba-- March 27, 2010
March 27th Red River Flood Sheets were not available at 2pm.
Today is going to be a beautiful day!!
ReplyDeleteLight winds , full sun , and temps in the mid teens!!
Break out the sunscreen!
Our overnight low tomorrow night will be warmer than the average high for this time of year!
ReplyDeleteUNREAL!
Wow, theweathernetwork is saying 20°C for tomorrow! That would be on of the warmest March days on record.
ReplyDeleteThey also predict 28°C in Toronto on Friday, humidex 32!
There's got to be a consequence for this kind of warmth sometime... When and where..
All I have to say is that this weather is greatly enjoyed by myself and please keep it coming without any consequences in the next couple of months.
ReplyDeleteLooks like quite a few records were broken today including Winnipeg!!!
ReplyDeleteBreak out the record books again today!
ReplyDeleteRecords should fall !
Environment Canada is calling for a high of 22C in Steinbach. I don't see how we'll get even remotely close to that, but I sure hope I'm wrong.
ReplyDeleteAlthough EC has changed the Winnipeg Max. for today the March Monthly (and Daily) Humidex Record, 18.8, is within reach (March 30, 1967 17.2 @ 66%)
ReplyDeleteEC revised the Steinbach forecast down to +16C...Ooops!
ReplyDeleteThe skies are clearing quickly behind the line of showers!
ReplyDeleteIf the sun does come out then 20 C is not out of the question!
GFS is forecasting 30 to 40mm of precipitation over the Red River by Friday. Some of the flood officials may have declared this year's flood a non-event just a bit too early.
ReplyDeleteScott, that rain you talk of, is that on the U.S. side, or the Manitoba side, or both?
ReplyDeleteThe rainfall I was talking about is for both sides of the border. However, we need to be careful as the models may have a poor handle on this weather system. In other words, we may see the 30 to 40mm that is currently predicted, or we may end up with nothing. I'll keep you updated with the latest model projections.
ReplyDeleteRain is not needed for a couple more weeks at least..This shows what a three foot rise in the river can do in three hours. The water rose slightly from here and then has returned to this level in Ft Garry/StVital.
ReplyDeletesee Red River at St Vital Park
I wonder where Rob is????
ReplyDeleteHoliday in the Bahamas????
Rob who
ReplyDeleteRob or Daniel.. are we going to see our first Thunder storm in the next 3 days with up to 25 mms rain?
ReplyDeleteSee 1-3 day QPF
Models are showing heavy rainfall over the Red River Valley. GFS gives the Red River between Winnipeg and Emerson 1 to 1.5" (25 to 38mm) of rain/snow. This would be able to work into the river system almost immediately...and right around the time that crests are beginning in Manitoba.
ReplyDeleteWill there be snow tomorrow night in Winnipeg, or will it stay as rain?(I hope) Winter storm watches in North Dakota with a few inches of snow in the forecast (NOAA).
ReplyDeleteI expect snow to fall across most of southern Manitoba on Friday. 850mb temperatures are forecast to be between -2C and -4C. However, surface temperatures should stay above zero, which won't allow snow to accumulate. Essentially it will accumulate much like rain, since it will melt on contact with the ground. Latest model runs give Winnipeg about 15mm of precipitation, which looks quite reasonable to me.
ReplyDeleteThe Beta NOAA Doppler Radar (MOSAIC) does an excellent representation of the pcpn moving from W to ENE across North Dakota Select my name or See
ReplyDeletehttp://radar.srh.noaa.gov/
At certain magnifications the Cities and Towns of Southern MB are shown as well.
Scott this mornings 48 hr QPF looks like Steinbach will receive more of a soaking from this system than Winnipeg.
This MOSAIC Ridge Radar Link is preset to the storm approaching southern MB and the Winter Storm Warnings for South Central and Western ND
ReplyDeleteAt 10am this morning these NCRFC 24 hr Red River Valley QPF forecasts were produced for each of today, Friday and Saturday They are also available on the bottom of the NWS Grand Forks Flood Briefing Page.
ReplyDeleteQPF 24 hour ending Friday 12Z
QPF 24 hour ending Saturday 12Z
QPF 24 hour ending Sunday 12Z
The most pessimistic run for Winnipeg is the 12Z GEM-Regional. That model gives Winnipeg around 45mm of precipitation. However, that 45mm includes 10 to 20cm of snow and about 25mm of rain.
ReplyDeleteThe driest run for Winnipeg is the NAM, which only gives the city 9mm of precipitation (with little or no snow). I took an average of all the models I had available and the average forecasted precipitation for Winnipeg is 14mm. For Steinbach, the average jumps up to 30mm.
It looks like around 30mm should be expected in the RRV south of Winnipeg, but possibly more if the GEM-Regional is correct.
Sorry, a bit off topic, but i was just curious if March was one of the least snowiest on record. Any idea how much snow the airport received this March as well?
ReplyDeleteAlso just wanted to say thanks for all the updates on this upcoming storm =D Keep up the good work!
Ok !
ReplyDeleteWho ordered the snow for Friday night
Hopefully we can stay above zero and not get any!
SNOWFALL WARNING ISSUED!!!!
ReplyDeleteNOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!
It may snow 5- 10 cm but I can't actully see that much on the ground. There will be lots of water on the ground before that happens and the ground is quite warm. I would think a lot will melt as it falls as well the low is supposed to be 0. Probably be a slushy soupy mess by morning and with saturdays high to be 8 I think most of it will be gone by noon. Now if the temps would drop to -5 early in the evening that might be a totally different story. This is my guess for right now.
ReplyDeleteI see 5cm at the most for Winnipeg. I think your best range would be 2 to 5cm. My rule of thumb for this event is that surface temperatures have to be below 1C for snow to accumulate.
ReplyDeleteOnce again Snowfall will be preceded by severe TS Warnings. See Warroad-Rousseau Lake of the Woods TSWarning 10am
ReplyDeleteI'm not surprised that Environment Canada hasn't issued any warnings for this storm here:
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/yde25kg
EC just updated for Winnipeg and now calling for 2-4cm for tonight. Currently saying a Thunderstorm in Winnipeg but I haven't seen or heard any. The winds sure are strong on the north side of the city
ReplyDeleteEC has, but they called it Snow tagged it on the end of
ReplyDeleteEC Severe Weather Warning
Snow Warning for the Ontario Border that is.
ReplyDeleteConnor Is that (tinyurl) part of a mobile app?
ReplyDeleteTWN Past n Forecast Radar (on my name) puts that Thunderstorm over Kenora at noon 1201pm
ReplyDeleteThunder woke me up this morning (yes, had a good sleep in).
ReplyDeleteMaybe we'll get a t-storm in Winnipeg (i hope). Storms developping in North Dakota now =D, north of Grand Forks.
ReplyDeleteThe last time I drove from Kenora to International Falls it took 3 hours.. That Severe Tstorm is Flying (pardon the Pun) if it will be there in an hour.
ReplyDeleteSpring Break/Easter Weekend.
ReplyDeleteMore action than the entire month of March.
Is EC on minimal staff this Weekend?
Weak thunderstorms poping up in North Dakota and now a wind warning issued for Winnipeg. Also the new EC reports show a chance of thunderstorms! And to add to it the intellicast radar is showing some hail develloppment in these storms. Wow never expected it to be such a busy day here in Winnipeg if these storms push in.
ReplyDeleteThe Lake of the Woods (Hail and High Winds)Severe T Storm appears to have passed between West Hawk Lake and Kenora.
ReplyDeleteA Major storm appearing over Minot moving North.
Will that effect Brandon??
Is the Red River flowing South today?
ReplyDeleteThat Wind 54km gusting to 65 (to 90 later) is doing what the ice couldn't. The flotsam on the river is moving south past St Vital Park. It appears to be acting like an Ice Jam and raising the water level
jim
Very large thermal gradient in place with anomalous upper ridge over midwest and Great Lakes. Convection in NW Ontario due to elevated instability in warm advection regime on east side of low. Winnipeg will remain on the colder, more stable side of the system as it moves up from the upper midwest into Manitoba. Edge of deformation zone should hold relatively steady today with western RRV likely receiving the most precip. Precip phase should remain a mix of ice pellets, snow pellets, and rain until disturbance moves off to into NW Ontario and allows colder air to wrap into our region between 2 and 4 am. Possibility is there for a sloppy 5 to maybe even 10 cm of snow on back side of deformation zone as lifts up with low... best chance would be in northern RRV and interlake.
ReplyDeleteIs this system similar (products at least) to those infamous Colorado lows storms of the first week of March 1966 and April 1997?
ReplyDeleteDoes it signify
a)the reduced influence of the El Nino effect. ie Pcpn on West South and Eastern coasts of North America,
(b)the seasonal movement of the Jet Stream, or
(c)is it just one of those occasional spring phenomenon?
As a side note, the mean temperature in March at my house in Steinbach (according to my weather station) was +1.1C. The mean temperature at the Steinbach airport was +0.5C. The mean temperature at the Winnipeg airport was -0.6C.
ReplyDeleteDid anyone get hail today>???
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg had about a minute of very intense small hail this afternoon!
Enough to coat the ground!
Daniel P,
ReplyDeleteSurely you mean sleet? Hail is a warm-weather phenomenon. I've noticed that lots of people use the term interchangeably but that is a big mistake. They form under totally different conditions.
Sleet is common at temperatures a few degrees above freezing.
Environment Canada now has issued snowfall warnings for areas they thought would only get a few flurries at their 4:00 pm forecast!
ReplyDeleteEnvironment Canada seems confused in which areas will get the snow!
Winnipeg was 5 cm of snow with last nights forecast!
This morning they say 5 - 10 cm
Then 2-4 cm at the 11:00 update!
4:00 forecast calls for flurries!
Watch it change again!!!
it was hail up here in rivergrove. I heard a crash of thunder then had a about 5 min of small hail. Defiantly not sleet.
ReplyDeletegraupel is the correct term
ReplyDeleteYeah.. that downburst was snow pellets or graupel. Winnipeg was brushed by some elevated instability yesterday leading to a few rumbles of thunder, but probably not enough to generate hail.
ReplyDeleteRe anonymous:
ReplyDelete"Is this system similar (products at least) to those infamous Colorado lows storms of the first week of March 1966 and April 1997?
Does it signify
a)the reduced influence of the El Nino effect. ie Pcpn on West South and Eastern coasts of North America,
(b)the seasonal movement of the Jet Stream, or
(c)is it just one of those occasional spring phenomenon?"
a)Not necessarily... you can still get this pattern to occur during el nino years even though it is not favored (dominant southern stream takes systems well to our SE).
b) & c)You can this type of set up any time from October to early May (when temperature contrast between North and South is maximized)... but is most likely to affect our region during late fall and early spring when we are not locked into a NW flow aloft as persistently.
PS...
ReplyDeleteThis pattern appears very similar to that of the late March 1998... which was at the end of the 97-98 'super el nino'. Record breaking temperatures occurred in southern Ontario and the NE United States with the east coast seeing temps in the low thirties.
Looks like some daytime heating showers are trying to "pop"!
ReplyDeleteAirmass is a little to dry for anything major to form!
Yeah, just heard some thunder here in east Winnipeg!
ReplyDeleteWinds sure picked up ahead of the shower that just moved through!
ReplyDelete60 km winds gust in West side of Winnipeg!
High based mainly dry convection. Lots of virga and evaporative cooling generating stronger gusts at the surface.
ReplyDeleteI didn't hear any thunder, but I did notice the winds pick up ahead of the showers.
ReplyDeleteRob is back I assume, as OBS is from Charleswood??
ReplyDeleteCan a new BLOG POST be far behind??
I know, after work etc.
Greetings everyone!
ReplyDeleteYes, I'm back from spring break holidays. Took a nice little cruise around the Caribbean for the week.. (and yes Daniel, it included a stop in the Bahamas!) I see I missed some mild and wild weather while I was away (thunderstorms, hail, snow, strong winds all within 24 hrs!)
I'll try to get an updated post up today.
There's some nice auroras out there if you look to the NE tonight. I saw some nice bright green curtains in the sky from St. Vital here not too long ago.
ReplyDeleteThey were spectacular from Brandon to Portage La Prairie last night. Faded some as we neared the city.(9-11pm)
ReplyDelete