Saturday, December 19, 2009
Snow drought continues
After the 2nd driest November on record with only 1.5 mm of melted snow for the month, the dry weather pattern has continued into December. As of the 18th, only 1.0 mm of melted snow has been recorded at Winnipeg airport this month, with a meager snowcover of 2 cm on the ground. This is the thinnest snow cover in Winnipeg for this time of year since 2002 when no snow was on the ground as of the 18th. And unfortunately for snowlovers out there, prospects for any significant snowfall over southern MB look low over the next week. A weak system passing through southern MB tonight into Sunday may bring a dusting to 2 cm, but overall it looks dry over the upcoming week with no major snowfalls forecast for southern MB through Christmas. That's good news for those with holiday travel plans this week, but not the best news for those looking for some nice powder for snowmobiling or skiing. Long range models are forecasting a strong storm system developing over the southern US Plains moving into the Great Lakes mid to late next week, but it appears this system will stay well to our south and east. In the meantime, those wishing for snow will have to look with envy to the US East Coast this weekend where a strong nor'easter is expected to bring 20-50 cm of heavy snow from Washington DC to Boston.
Posted by rob at 8:12 AM
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I really hope we get a few cm of snow tonight into Sunday just make everything look nice for Christmas!!!ReplyDelete
Unusual to see how everyone's getting a nice white christmas but us in Winnipeg.ReplyDelete
Sorry, spoke too soon. Looks like we did get some snow last night, maybe mroe today.ReplyDelete
Theres a big band coming from western manitoba moving in a east southeast motion. I hope winnipeg will get some more snow out of this.ReplyDelete
If it continues exactly the same way it is moving right now I would think Winnipeg would just get a dusting. Maybe it will intensify a little or move more in a westerly direction than south. Then it looks like we might get a little moreReplyDelete
I looks like it's holding up, if not getting stonger at the moment.ReplyDelete
Who activated the shields again?
Finally some fresh snow on the ground!!!ReplyDelete
Maybe Winnipeg will see 2 cm today!
I'll be surprised if we even get 2cmReplyDelete
There looks to be a huge storm this week in the plain states.
With the current pattern is there any chance of that storm hitting southern Manitoba????
Based on current model solutions for that storm later next week, it looks like the worst of it will affect areas well to our south and east. General consensus on storm track is from northern Texas to Green Bay area by Christmas Day. ECMWF is a little further west but still keeps worst of the storm to our south and east. For a storm to affect us in the RRV, it would have to track over western Minnesota into NW Ontario, and at this time none of the models indicate that happening. Basically, the main energy that supports this storm dives too far south into the southwest US to generate the storm east of the Rockies. Generally, the storm would have to develop over Colorado to affect us (Colorado lows) while Texas lows usually affect areas further east into the Great Lakes.ReplyDelete
We may get some attendant snow from the storm if there's an inverted trof out of the storm into the northern Plains/southern MB which the GFS hints at.. but this would be more a general snowfall than a strong storm.
Note however that if you have travel plans into Minnesota or NW Ontario towards Christmas (including Minneapolis or Thunder Bay), you may want to keep an eye on the development of this storm which may affect travel in those areas.
Woo hoo.. a whole cm of new snow today! Largest snowfall in 10 weeks! I might have to shovel!ReplyDelete
Never mind the shovel.... get the snow-blower out :>}
Looks like the latest run of the GFS is showing that large storm getting closer to Southern Manitoba!ReplyDelete
Wind and snow impact look to be greater according to the latest run!!
We all know how things can change....
Interesting weather to say the least!
Based on the way models have handled most major storms so far this fall, I have zero confidence in the GFS, NAM, and other models. Right now the GFS is trending towards moving a part of that Christmas day storm towards Manitoba. However, usually the models will do this, only to gradually remove all precipitation from Manitoba as the actual date gets nearer. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have a big Christmas storm, but I personally don't think it will happen...so feel free to prove me wrong.ReplyDelete
Can one say inverted trough for Thursday-Friday...remember December of 2006? We got about 30cm around New Years with a similar set up!ReplyDelete
Yeah.. WRF is suggesting 10 cm for Winnipeg on the 24th from an inverted trof from the main storm while other models like the GLB show no such thing with any snow staying to our southeast. Interestingly, the GFS has backed off on the inverted trof idea with the latest runs. Personally I wouldn't mind a nice Christmas Eve snowstorm.. but we'll have to see how this thing develops. My gut feeling is that we won't see much..ReplyDelete
Even if we don't see more snow for christmas, I know we'll see our first big storm after or before new years. It always happens around that time for some reason.ReplyDelete
What is this WRF model you speak of???
Is the WRF model the same as the NAM model????
When I look at your website and look under the model section I see no WRF!!!!
Yes, WRF is the same as the NAM which is a mesoscale model out to 84 hours. Not sure why they have the two designators. You can see the WRF/NAM output for the Prairies at the College Du Page model link. Unisys only has the NAM/WRF out to 60 hrs.ReplyDelete