Sunday, June 14, 2009


After 30 days of below normal temperature (see graph), southern Manitobans were finally treated to beautiful summerlike weather today with bright blue skies, light winds, and warm temperatures in the mid 20s. The good news is the warm weather will continue over the next several days, although there may be some showers or thunderstorms developing by Tuesday. The warm weather is welcome news to area farmers and gardeners who are in desperate need of warm weather to increase soil temperatures for crop growth that has been delayed due to the prolonged cold and damp weather this spring.


  1. I could not agree more with Rob!

    FINALLY some heat!!!

    How are the thunderstorms chances looking for tomorrow night????

  2. Chris -St.Vital5:33 PM, June 14, 2009

    My wife said it's too hot out. I almost handed her the divorce papers.

  3. To HOT!!!!!

    Where has your wife been in the last 6 months????????


  4. I don't want to get ahead of myself, but I think we have finally turned the corner into summer. Although we may see some cooler days this month, it looks like it will be warmer, rather than cooler, most of the time.

  5. Watch for increasing humidity levels over the next couple of days as we get a southerly flow advecting higher dewpoints from the central Plains. GEM brings up 15C dewpoints over RRV Monday, increasing to 17-20C for Tuesday with locally heavy showers or thunderstorms possible. Tropical!

  6. What an absolutely gorgeous day. The trees at Kildonan Park and around the city finally leafing out.

    Surface based convection over central Saskatchewan drifting into western Manitoba. Those areas heated out sufficiently to spark storm formation. Environment is very weakly sheared at and above 700 hPa, and 850 LLJ is disorganized... therefore these storms likely fizzle out.

    I would watch for new storm formation over western N Dakota tonite on nose of better organized LLJ and 850 hPa theta e ridge. Convective debris may plague areas from Winnipeg south tomorrow, making forecast highs tricky. I would expect another round of nocturnal convection on Monday night and especially Tuesday morning as LLJ, closed low at 850 hPa, and deep moisture ooze northeast to RRV. Showers and elevated tstorms may continue into early Tuesday afternoon.

    Best surface based instability and sunny skies look to stay north of us in the interlake thru Tuesday. Of course any significant breaks could make things interesting... but as it stands now, the main issue would be heavy rain.

    Flow is strongest below mid-levels, this leads to slow, propagation dominated cell motion (ie back-building of cells will be favored). Deep moisture (850 hPa Td's 12 C), and relatively stationary LLJ and Theta e ridge also favor heavy precip potential.
    On the other hand, direct thermal circulations from either frontogenesis or right entrance region of jet streak will be lacking. We'll see.

    More convective potential for mid week as main 500 hPa trough works thru. Fortunately, GFS now shows that arctic air will not be tapped... rather we will deal with seasonably cool maritime polar values. Maybe we finally did round that corner...

  7. Winnipeg airport is already 26 C as of 11:00 AM!
    You never know.... we might hit are first 30 C of the year!

  8. Rob!
    The humidex is already 29 C!

    Amazing , considering last week we were shivering in single digit highs!!!

  9. 28 degrees as of noon

    looks like we may do even batter than the EC modified high of 30!

  10. TAF CYWG
    FM15th 21z-00z 18012KT P6SM SCT070
    TEMPO 15z-22z/1602 P6SM -SHRA BKN070
    PROB30% 15z-23z/1602 VRB20G30KT 5SM TSRA BKN050CB

    FM16th 06z-00z 14008KT P6SM SCT060 BKN080
    TEMPO 16z-10z/1618 VRB20G30KT 5SM TSRA SCT030 BKN050CB
    PROB40% 16z-15z/1618 1SM +TSRAGR BKN030CB OVC040

  11. I'm kind of surprised at the severe weather chances. Usually June is our best severe weather month for tornadoes and volatile storms. However, this year we lack some of the typical June parameters. For one, there is almost no wind shear whatsoever. If it wasn't for the LLJ, there would be absolutely nothing. By mid-week that is where we will be, no shear and no severe wx dynamics. Quite the opposite from just a week or two ago, when we had the shear, but no moisture.

    Thursday has the potential for be a good severe weather day, but if we don't have wind shear, like currently forecast, we can't hope for anything too exciting.

  12. Rob!
    How are the severe thunderstorm chances looking for tomorrow???

    Did Winnipeg airport actually hit
    30 C yesterday???

    If not, maybe today will be the day!