Sunday, June 07, 2009

Cloudy cool weather to persist.. Rain moving in Monday

Cloudy cool weather will continue over southern MB for the next few days, with some rain spreading over the Red River valley Monday into Monday night, tapering off Tuesday. 10-15 mm of rain is likely with this next system over the Red River valley with 15-25 mm possible over western MB. In fact, there's even a chance some of that rain will mix with or change to wet snow Monday night over higher elevations of western MB near the SK border. Rain will taper off Tuesday morning but cloudy and cool conditions will persist through Wednesday before a drying and warming trend moves in by Thursday or Friday. Until then, look for temperatures to remain well below normal, only in the low to mid teens, before rising towards the 20C mark by week's end.


  1. Rob!
    Do you see the end of this upcoming week as the " FINAL "turning point toward NORMAL temperatures???

  2. Chris - St. Vital3:51 PM, June 07, 2009

    I would certainly take Rob's Scott's and Daniel's word for it, but if you count on TWN, 14 day trend says drop to well below normal again around the 20th.
    I hope not!

  3. daniel P...

    I do not want to speak on behalf of Rob, but my view is that no one can really say at this point if we have 'turned the corner'.

    Despite Scott's unfortunate attempt at grandstanding (likely to divert attention from the fact that he has not contributed anything whatsoever to the discussion of the current weather system), it is not clear whether we will enter into a sustained summer like pattern.

    Models keep trying to expand an upper ridge west towards us... it certainly may happen eventually. However at the same time, an abnormally strong Polar/Arctic Vortex over western Hudson Bay(likely re-enforced by above average snow and ice fields) continues to hang tough. Will it modify or move NE and allow that ridge to build in for a long duration, or will we oscillate back and forth... the devil is in the details here.

    For example, GFS already shows two shortwaves rotating around the Polar Vortex by the end of the extended period. These look to erode the upper ridge which briefly tries to expand over us.

  4. I am reluctant to buy on to any turning point signal until I see more consistent evidence of a breakdown of that jet stream to our south. There are *very* preliminary signs of this occurring in a couple weeks, but at this point, it's just a model guess, and as we've seen, the models have been having a lot of difficulty trying to accurately predict the timing of a pattern change. It's got to happen some time though, and when it does, we'll be in the 25-30C range no problem as these values are easily within range now. Note that last year, we also had a slow start to summer, and it wasn't until June 16th when we finally "turned the corner" to more summerlike values. Personally, I find it hard to believe that we'll still be below normal for another 3 or 4 weeks, but Mother Nature has a way of surprising us sometimes..

    BTW for all concerned.. I don't mind a healthy debate on topics, but please stay away from personal criticisms. We're all here to learn from each other and gain insight from everyone's input. I appreciate everyone's contributions and would like to see them continue. Thanks!