Friday, May 22, 2009

Thunderstorms possible this afternoon across Red River Valley/SE MB

A weak cold front will cross southern MB today bringing the threat of thunderstorms mainly along and east of the Red River valley this afternoon.  Conditions are unstable enough for small but fairly energetic thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of this cold front, with the potential for stronger storms to produce marble size hail. Storms should be moving fairly rapidly so heavy rainfall should not be a major concern.. although the storms may produce locally heavy downpours for a short period. The main threat of storms in Winnipeg will be between 1 and 3 pm, with the threat area pushing east of the city after that time as drier and more stable air pushes in from the west behind the front.  


  1. Rob!
    Did you see Monday's forecast???
    It is amazing how it went from a high of 20 C a couple days ago to now only a high of 10 C with wind and rain!

    Hopefully after Monday we get into a different pattern!!!

    Rob you see that after Monday the weather pattern will finally be changing to a hotter pattern???

  2. A couple of thunderstorms have fired up to the west of Portage La Prairie!

    If they hold together they should be passing through the city in a couple of hours!!

  3. The front is coming thru later than progged allowing for some surface based convection to form along it.

    A so often happens, it appears the line is broken and Winnipeg will miss out. It is possible that the line moving north may build south and catch areas from Downtown and north...

  4. Interesting afternoon.. funnel clouds spotted northwest of the city around 1 pm west of Stonewall, and walnut size hail from a cell north of Gimli. Other areas reported brief heavy rain and pea size hail, including a cell that tracked from Rosenort through Steinbach.

  5. Re: Monday's forecast

    Models continue to have considerable disagreement about how wet southern MB will be on Monday. There is general agreement that showers and thunderstorms will develop over ND Sunday into Sunday night with a slow progression northward towards the Canadian border. Heavy rain is possible over the Dakotas through this period moving into northern MN. Models diverge about extent of this rain into southern MB for Monday.. it's possible heaviest rain will stay south of us in which case we would be drier and warmer for Monday. So don't be surprised to see big flips on Monday forecast over the next day or two as models try to figure this system out (remember, extended forecasts are automated and are at the whim of model solutions one day to the next)