Winnipeggers started their weekend with a fresh coating of snow Saturday morning as an unseasonably cold airmass persists over southern MB. Snow will taper off this morning but cloudy and cold conditions will continue today before temperatures start moderating Sunday into Monday. Unfortunately a change to warmer drier weather pattern does not look likely in the near term as unsettled and cooler weather moves in again for the upcoming week.
This is not want I wanted to see when I look out my window on May 9!ReplyDelete
This system for the upcoming week looks really interesting!
Could be some convection firing up with the first part of the system followed by a wind driven rain!
Maybe followed by a mix of rain and snow>>>???
Time will tell!
All I can tell you is that I can't wait for summer temperature to arrive!
I hope this is not like last year when it took until the end of summer to hit 30 C!
Call me a pessimist and I hope I'm dead wrong but I'm starting to think "Spring and Summer" has materially shifted from what it used to be and we're in for a repeat of last year. It just seems like too many consecutive months of below normal temps; why will that patten suddenly change? I hope I'm out to lunch but I'm starting to think that Spring around here is now a period of cool and wet weather followed by Summers that resemble what Spring used to be.ReplyDelete
High off to our north has cleared things out nicely over the interlake. At the interface of the clear and overcast regions, cellular clouds and snow showers are forming.ReplyDelete
Will we see the sun later this afternoon? It would sure help lift spirits a bit as well as afternoon highs. The downside would be very cold overnite lows tonite. Clearing line has definitely sagged southwest.. hard to say if more clouds will fill back in over Winnipeg. However the sun is a good bet from Selkirk and Stonewall north I would say.
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Yeah.. nice to see that clearing. I'm willing to live with chilly nights for some sunshine!ReplyDelete
Skies are clearing nicely across Winnipeg late this afternoon. Clear and cool tonight with sunshine mixing with some clouds for Sunday.ReplyDelete
Any thunderstorm potential with the system coming in on Tuesday???ReplyDelete
Maybe just a rumble of thunder....
Looks like there will be some potential for severe storms on Tuesday afternoon/evening east Brandon to around Steinbach.ReplyDelete
CAPE values could be as high as 1500 or even 2000J/kg around Carman/Portage area. This will be the result of dewpoints in the mid teens.
Wind shear will be decent, considering it is only early May, with unidirectional shear increasing by 10kts in each altitude (850mb-20knts, 700mb-30knts, etc).
A front will move through an uncapped environment during the afternoon and evening hours. This should create the potential for severe hail (probably not much bigger than warning criteria) and severe wind gusts (>90km/h). Because the upper-air temperatures are still very cold (700mb -4C, 500mb -20C), hail and wind are most probable.
Hopefully the forecast holds...maybe the severe season will start early?
I agree with Scott, Tuesday definitely looks like severe convection will occur in SC MB. We might get our first taste...hopefully! An early start never hurt anyone...or did it? Tornado chances are pretty much zero! But hey, with the unidirectional flow, cold temperatures aloft, and oddly decent dewpoints, a cold front will likely ignite some hail making storms in the early-late afternoon on Tuesday!ReplyDelete
Main target at this time would be around the escarpment area which includes Morden/Winkler/Carman...etc!
Let's hope the models verify!
That is some cold tempertures forecasted for Thursday. If we have a lot of moisture for that day we could end up with a snow stormReplyDelete
Daryl.....try not to remind me of what happened back in May 11 2004 with 30 cm of fresh snow!!!ReplyDelete
So if we do get a couple of snowflakes....
Oh and Justin H i would like to mention that you live steaming video for tornado videos .net is working great!!!!
A lot of the other live steams do not work half the time of they have to many viewers on at the same time and the site just "bogs" down!!!
I played around with the bit rate and frame rates and was able to find a working combo that allows the stream to work constantly. I've tried it around Winnipeg last month and it seemed to hold out. I know I'll lose the consistency when I head out into the rural areas. To counter that issue, I purchased a high-gain gsm cell antenna. I hate it when the streams time out when I'm watching them, and all it takes is for the user to lower the frame/bit rate settings so that the stream can continue to function at lower internet speeds.
My goal is to provide our neighbours to the south a stream that stays up throughout the course of the chase; we Canadian's can do it! To solve the bogging down issue of hundreds of users, I created my own site and streaming page so that you don't have to deal with the tornadovideos.net traffic.
I can tell you right now that our northern streams will be so popular when our season lights up, because it'll be so capped down South and storms will fail to develop under the nuclear cap come late June through July!
Did you manage to catch when I streamed our first weak gust front last week?
Keep watching the stream, it'll definitely be up on Tuesday if Severe Wx occurs...or not...I'm always streaming!
Oh Justin....or Rob I have one more question that hopefully someone might be able to answer!!!!ReplyDelete
Does the awesome radar that is running on the "tornadovideo.net" website work on our side of the border????
It is so cool to be able to pan and zoom in and out of all the storms that are happening , especially if there is a thunderstorm outbreak and there is a lot of storms happening!!!
Rob I Can't access your ROBSOBS site or any link to .shaw.ca . Are they down tonight.ReplyDelete
I can access BLOG site directly.
Anyone else have this problem
Yeah.. I can't access my site either. I've rebooted my modem a couple times now but still no luck. Could be a Shaw issue..ReplyDelete
Not your Modem .. I can't get through to Shaws customer services page or any SHAW website.ReplyDelete
ROBSOBS is On line now.ReplyDelete
Daniel, you should use a program called GRLevel3. It doesn't work with our radars, but KMOT (Minot) and KMVX (Mayville) actually reach well into Southern Manitoba if you toggle to the BR248 Reflectivity. GRLevel3 is amazing, you can view all the scan angles (reflectivity/velocity), the vil, the echotops, storm tracks, storm parameters, hail size, tvs signatures, probability of severe hail, and so on. You should read up on it and install it RIGHT AWAY!ReplyDelete
I always use GRLevel3, even when chasing in Southern Manitoba, or monitoring what's going on in the US. Our radar resolution is not all that great, especially the radar that is offered to the public. It's sad really! Plus we have 10-min scan cycles, whereas the USA radars can adjust their scan frequency to lower time intervals (ex. 5 minutes). Some can even go into rapid scan mode! (<5-min I believe). The rapid scan mode is similar to what you might see from the DOW (Doppler on Wheels)
To answer your question,
Tornadovideos.net radar technically would reach into our region, but again that's based on the KMOT and KMVX radar beams shooting into our region
It's late, time to catch some z's!
I still see this more of an elevated threat overnite Monday and possibly Tuesday (for extreme SE Manitoba). Here is how I think the scenario will unfold...ReplyDelete
Strong LLJ as previously mentioned cranks up tonite advecting moisture and instability (especially just off the surface). Terminus of LLJ will interact with left exit of 300 hPa jet core and surface warm front draped south of the Manitoba border. Watch for MCS/MCC to track somewhere north of the warm front between Winnipeg and Grand Forks.
Debris cloud and cold pool from the MCS could hamper the northward movement of the warm front. This would leave us with a cool east flow and clouds. Not conducive for surface based convection to form along trough. The best chance for strong diurnal storms will be in the warm sector over the Dakotas.
Given the unidirectional flow, and cold air at midlevels, some kind of squall line could become organized, especially as the LLJ cranks up again Tuesday nite. Looks like WC Minnesota and SE N Dakota may be under the gun.
I think the potential for heavy rain is greater Tuesday nite than Monday. On Monday the LLJ is rather progressive moving from west to east. However, on Tuesday it will remain fairly stationary along with low level theta e ridge.
Cells may try to build back into that juicier air as any convective line passes thru. Particularly along the edge of the cold pool aligned parallel with the mean flow.
If nothing forms Monday nite and/or the warm front pushes further north on Tuesday.. it will be a whole different ball game. By Wednesday, we will get into a deformation zone with stratiform rain and blustery conditions possible. 850 hPa temps look warm enough to prevent snow with the exception of maybe a few wet flakes on the back side.
Note by Friday evening, rapid return of moisture and warmth may trigger another round of convection. As long as we have a strong polar front stalled along the international border and nocturnal LLJs.. we always have to talk about MCC/MCS potential if instability is present.
Right the Storm Prediction Center has a Moderate risk for their DAY 3 outlook....never seen that before.ReplyDelete
There is some convection FIRING up in central ND!
Looking at the satellite images that seems to be a some convection TRYING to form in South-western Manitoba!
Maybe something will fire in Manitoba today!!!
A few lighting strikes already noted with a thunderstorm cell that has formed to the west of Pilot Mound!ReplyDelete
Numerous weak showers and thunderstorms have popped up in the daytime heating!
Looks like Winnipeg and area might even get in on the action if the cells can hold together!!
Good discussion on Tuesday's thunderstorm threat from everyone. I've started a new thread on this situation.. let's see what tomorrow brings!ReplyDelete