Saturday, March 07, 2009

Strong storm system may affect southeast MB Tuesday

Models are indicating the development of a major winter storm that is forecast to track across Minnesota Tuesday. Depending on the exact track of the storm, portions of southeast MB, including the Red River valley, may be affected by this storm system. At this point, the consensus is that the worst of the storm will affect areas south and east of Winnipeg including eastern ND, northern MN, southeast MB, and northwest Ontario with heavy snow and strong winds, with the possibility of blizzard conditions on the open prairies. However, the situation will be monitored closely to see how models handle this significant storm and what impacts it may have on southern MB. Stay tuned..


  1. Which model is good to use for this time of year? The NAM and the WRF show it hitting YWG, the GFS and ECMWF show it missing us completely. I'm curious. Either way, it's bad news for the 'Already-High' flood risk. Heavy snow will fall somewhere along the Red River Valley which will further exacerbate the situation.

    It seems like the GFS builds on previous runs. Like it seems as if the precipitation blossoms as you move through the run up to day 10. Is that accurate? I find the GFS messy sometimes, and I find that the WRF often verifies to be true.

  2. The NAM has shown heavy snowfall for south-eastern Manitoba for about the last 30 hours now. The GFS is moving north and west slightly, but the 00Z run tonight will determine whether that trend will continue.

    It looks like the American Red River Valley will get hammered regardless of what happens in Manitoba. Not good for the flood situation.

  3. The latest WRF run is showing southern Manitoba getting pummeled with a blizzard!

    Other models such as the ECMWF that were showing the storm hitting southern Manitoab early in the week now show it missing us by a long shot!

    Time will tell!

  4. Blizzard watch issued for eastern ND right up to the MB border for Tuesday, with a winter storm watch over northern Minnesota. Nothing issued on the Canadian side, but I suspect there will be something posted today for NW Ontario, including Kenora, which will likely get hammered by Tuesday's storm system (30 cm+) Looking at model consensus of the surface low track (eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin) would suggest the bulk of this storm will miss southern MB, but clip the southeast corner (south and east of a line from Pinawa to Emerson) with snow and blowing snow. A westward shift in the storm track would move the snow threat into the Red River valley of southern MB, but at this point, I don't see much evidence of that. Anybody with travel plans to NW Ontario, ND, or MN for Tuesday should be prepared for travel disruptions and possible road closures due to this major storm system.

  5. At this point ... how strong do you think the winds will be in Southern Manitoba given the current track!

  6. Take a look at EMERSON forecast!
    Sunny and not a hint of snow or wind on the upcoming week!

    Just take a few steps to the south and they have a blizzard watch!


  7. Anybody guess as to how much snow we will have tonight? Trace to 2cm?

  8. I am thinking about 2cm for Winnipeg, and 5 to 10cm for Steinbach. Quite the contrast to yesterday, when the NAM was indicating 30cm for Steinbach, 30 to 40cm for Sprague, and 10 to 15cm for Winnipeg.

    It still looks like a blizzard is likely in south-eastern Manitoba. We will receive some amount of snow, with very strong winds.

  9. Daryl
    Tonight looks like about 2 cm of snow will fall ( if were lucky)!

    OH....but those winds will gust to 60 km/h once the cold front will pass!

    I wonder If that cold front is the one that is gonna push the storm system for Tuesday to the south east!

  10. The latest model runs basically give southern Manitoba no snowfall at all. I suspect that by Tuesday, we will barely catch a flurry.

    Quite different from the 30cm+ the models were showing a mere 24 hours ago. Although I should have known this was coming...whenever Manitoba gets caught under an arctic air mass, with a system passing far to the south, the models always dry up precipitation for us. This system has been no different.

  11. Northern MN and NW Ontario will get the worst of this one.. places like International Falls, Fort Frances, Duluth, Atikokan, and Thunder Bay will get 20-30 cm easy.. As Scott mentioned, barely anything for southern MB, even the southeast corner may only get a couple of cm at most according to latest models runs.

  12. They still have a blizzard watch for extreme northern Dakota!

    I would assume that there still is a chance for blizzard conditions for extreme southern Manitoba!

    Even with a little fresh snow and winds of 40 -60 km/h it could get pretty bad!

  13. Southeastern MB is a little more protected with trees than the Red River valley.. but open areas will likely see some blowing and drifting snow Tuesday afternoon and night.

    Winter storm watch finally issued for NW Ontario east of Kenora for 25-40 cm of snow.

  14. Looks like Environment Canada will be issuing a winter storm watch for south eastern Manitoba!

    The latest NAM run put the edge of the storm back into southern Manitoba!

  15. The 1966 Storm also not forecast, turned North at the last minute and stalled . The difference..The Temp improved dramatically as the storm passed.