Monday, July 28, 2008
Severe thunderstorms likely today
A cold front pushing across southern MB today will bring an increasing threat of thunderstorms today.. with the possibility of severe thunderstorms bringing large hail and possible tornadoes to portions of southern MB this afternoon into this evening. This same system produced numerous reports of severe weather across southern SK Sunday with at least 4 tornado reports. Residents of southern MB should stay tuned to updated forecasts and possible watches and warnings today on this potential severe weather outbreak.
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Well looks like things have already started!
ReplyDeleteA strong thunderstorm has just EXPLODED east of Brandon!!
Just watched it cruise overhead here in Brandon. Sure was dark!!
ReplyDeleteIs winnipeg in the hot spot, I hope not !! like where is it the most likley to happen? could we ge alot of tornados?
ReplyDeleteTwo areas of convection so far today with Winnipeg left high and dry. The MCS south of us appears to be associated with a lead shortwave. The line in the interlake is perhaps associated with the left exit region of an upper jet streak.
ReplyDeleteWith abundant moisture in place.. question is how much clearing and destabilization will occur ahead of the main surface trough. Capping should not be much of an issue with 700 MB temps progged below 10 C. Best shear and upper dynamics will favor areas just south of the border in North Dakota and Minnesota.. but areas along the international border might be under the gun.
Convection thus far has remained post frontal. Storms are forming in response to upper forcing from the left exit region of a jet streak.
ReplyDeleteThe upper dynamics are progged to be over the Red River Valley by midnight. Storms could continue through the night in response to the dynamic forcing. However the well defined southerly low level jet will set up south and east of us.
As as result the best low level directional shear and transport of deep gulf moisture will target Minnesota rather than Manitoba. Let's see what happens.
So when will Manitoba or winipeg going to be out of the risk? it's because I have had so much hail damage to my house from last year I just repaired it LOL. It would be a pitty If I had to do it agian.
ReplyDeleteThe better low level shear and southerly flow down in the states allowed for a high precip MCS to develop leaving impressive rainfall totals of 30-60 mm in its path. While some sites like Rob's picked up as little as 5 mm here in Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteDespite an active pattern and many oppurtunities, the Winnipeg area will likely end up with below normal precip and thunderstorm frequnecy this month. One last chance of convective precip starting on Wed nite as the warm muggy returns north.
Can someone explain why we can't put together 2-3 consecutive days of even MAINLY sunny weather? I give up on hoping for 30 degrees but a few days of 25 with SUN would be welcome. It seems there's 1 low pressure system after another this summer. Man do I feel sorry for any people who derive their livelihood from warm sunny weather.
ReplyDeleteThe weather network is saying manitoba is giong to be beaten by storms tommorow Is this true?
ReplyDelete8/2
ReplyDeleteOnce again we are plagued with debris cloud from an MCS and so far almost no precip. The strongest convection right now is happening in North Dakota where the best low level jet and shear is present. Models like the RUC show the area of good shear shifting up into Manitoba by evening. So the northern end of the complex may yet become more organized and affect us with widespread precip. If not it will be yet another dull cloudy day with little precip.