Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Frigid Friday!

A weak weather system will cross southern Manitoba on Thursday bringing increasing clouds and some flurries to the area. Only a dusting of snow is expected with this system along with slightly moderating temperatures, but the main story will be the cold air that will follow in the wake of this system Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures will drop into the minus 30 range by Friday morning, and brisk northwest winds of 30 km/h will give extreme windchill values below minus 40. Extreme windchill values will persist through Friday as brisk northwest winds continue along with daytime highs only in the minus 20s. The cold weather will continue through the weekend although winds should be a little lighter. Get that block heater ready!


  1. Yes, it looks pretty tough for the next few days. Wind chills in the
    -40s look likely tomorrow night, and it won't be much better Friday. Lows at least in the lower -30s appear to be on tap for the weekend. Even a light wind will knock wind chills down into the -40s. Won't have to worry about falling through the ice on the lake this weekend!

  2. It will certainly get cold this weekend, but how cold? Late last week the GFS was saying -40 degree temperatures were likely this weekend, but now is this cold snap going to be short lived? I won't complain about warm temperatures but if it is going to be -20 outside, why not -40 or -50 what difference does it make?

    It looks like the best chance for a super-cold overnight low will be Sunday or Monday morning, although these "super-cold" temperatures won't be as cold as we have seen before with -35 looking to be the absolute coldest for now.

    A scary northern Quebec a small pool of air at -55 to -65 (air temp) might form early next week...that could be us, well maybe not -65 but -50 could happen!

  3. I saw that GFS model run that went to -40...then it backed off a bit. The trajectory of the cold air (not going really far west) means we'll only have a few really cold days. Temperatures will be much closer to seasonal averages by midweek, and models show relatively mild weather for the rest of January. Of course, as you know, things can change.

    Don't think I want to see -50. That would be painfull...on the heating bill if nothing else. At -50, it would be interesting to take a cup of boiling water, throw it into the air, and see what happens. I have a pretty good idea already.

  4. We find ourselves again in a narrow ribbon of arctic air getting tapped in a northwest flow. But a ridge line just passed over switching the flow to the southwest. The forecast low of -29 C is not going to happen at the airport... usually Rob's station ends up a few degrees colder than YWG in this set-up. The flow on the back side of the ridge is relatively mild ... the last gasp of warmth before the extreme cold this weekend.

    To me there is a big difference between -20 C and -50 C ... For example block heaters do not become essential in newer cars until about -25 (although its a good idea to plug in at warmer temps ^.~ ). At about -30 the clouds of exhaust fog become oppressive and affect traffic. Below -35... very few varieties of trees survive and therefore limits what the city can plant on boulevards.

    I think it has reached -50 C in NE Minnesota at some unofficial stations subject to extreme cold air drainage effects...apparently it is a badge of honor to them and several small towns "fight" over who has the title of the coldest location. Crazy!

  5. Tomorrow and Saturday look to have extreme wind-chill values in the morning. According to EC they will be -42 on Friday and -43 on Saturday. I like how they give the windchill value on their website. The only thin I don't agree with is how they try and pin-point the temperature to a single. I have started to give windchill values on my website and I am giving a range like: -40 to -43 instead of -42. It is very unlikely the wind chill will stay the same for more than an hour or two.

  6. Friday should see the worst of the windchills.. with sustained winds of 30 km/h giving windchill values of -40 to -45 in the morning, moderating slightly in the afternoon. A definite indoor recess day for the kids! Saturday and Sunday will still be cold, but winds should be much lighter, so things won't feel as brutal as Friday.