Saturday, December 01, 2007

Winter Storm Update

Snow has crossed the border into Southern MB this morning with visibilities down to 1 km in snow at the border in Emerson as of 9 am. Snow is falling across North Dakota and Minnesota this morning with visibilities down to 1 mile or less in Grand Forks and Fargo. Look for snow to get heavier in these areas through this afternoon with accumulations of 10 to 20 cm by tonight. Check out webcams over North Dakota and Minnesota to monitor the progress of this storm.

Here in Southern MB, the snow has pushed as far north as Morris as of 9:30 am and should continue to spread north into Winnipeg by midday or early afternoon. It looks like Winnipeg should stay on the northern fringe of this system with perhaps 2 to 4 cm of snow this afternoon through tonight. Higher amounts of 5 to 10 cm are possible south and east of the city including Morris, Steinbach, Emerson and Falcon Lake, with 10 cm or more over Northwestern Ontario. Expect deteriorating driving conditions this afternoon into tonight, especially south and east of Winnipeg. Improving conditions are expected Sunday as the storm departs the region overnight.


  1. Thanks for the update Rob. On another subject, do you buy into EC's "Mr. WX" (D. Phillips) 90 day winter outlook? With all due respect to the staff at EC, I find these broad general forecasts difficult to believe especially when the 3 day prog product is machine generated. chris in westwood.

  2. Hi Chris..

    As far as that winter outlook is concerned.. yes, 90 day forecast accuracy is limited to say the least. What David Phillips was suggesting was that IF this winter outlook is correct (and that's a big IF), then this could be Canada's coldest overall winter since 1994. However, that is over Canada as a whole.. not every part of the country would necessarily be this cold. Also, keep in mind that Canada (as a whole) has had 11 consecutive winters above normal.. so if this one is below normal, then it's pretty obvious it would be the coldest nationwide in 12 years. But then, that's because in general, our winters have been so mild over the past decade.

    There are signs that a more usual La Nina winter pattern is shaping up which would bring colder than normal conditions over the Prairies, (especially west).. but whether that persists and leads to a colder than normal winter for the entire country.. I'm still not convinced, especially given the trends of the past decade even when we had La Nina years.

  3. I believe making such a blanket statement was not a very good seems to set one up for failure.

    At least there should have been more emphasis that not all areas will have the coldest winter in 15 years. In particular the eastern prairies and NW Ontario have endured some brutal winters within that 15 year time frame...95/96 and 96/97 come to mind . Its gonna be real tough beating those winters.

    Also...Dec 2000 comes to mind...that was a bitter, horrible month...the coldest December ever recorded ... only to have the pattern flip to a balmy pacific flow giving us a very mild January.
    Who knows...

  4. Hey Rob!
    Any snowfall amounts with this storm?
    It has been snowing all night and seems like we picked up quite a bit
    The wind seemed quite gusty blowing into some drifts!!

  5. I picked up 5.5 cm overnight on top of the 1.5 cm yesterday evening.. for a storm total of 7 cm here in Charleswood as of 9 am. A little more than I thought we'd get.. as snow persisted a little longer than expected. Other reports so far..

    Carman: 6 cm
    Indian Bay: 8 cm (near Falcon Lake)
    Pinawa: 5 cm
    Portage: 2 cm

    I don't have any other amounts in southern MB, but probably close to 10 cm in Steinbach judging by the radar. If anyone else has snow measurements, please let us know.

  6. Steinbach had almost no snow for the amount of time it was snowing. About 3-4cm fell in Steinbach, it snowed all day but it was so light it barely accumulated. What do you think about tomorrow chance of snow

  7. Only 3-4 cm?.. that's surprising. I was sure you would have had more. Snow must have been very fine..

    For tomorrow I don't see much snow for southern MB. Tuesday looks like a better chance of measurable snow as a clipper system moves through from SK. However at this point, models are indicating the bulk of the snow (5-10 cm?) will fall over SW Manitoba into North Dakota, with Winnipeg and SE Manitoba getting minor amounts. We'll see if that forecast holds..

  8. Yes, it was extremely fine snow, I calculated the water to snow ratio and it was about 0.25mm to 1cm so very fine snow.