Rob's Obs Signing Off

After 21 years of monitoring weather in Winnipeg, the time has finally come.. Rob's Obs is shutting down and heading to southern Ontario.  I will be taking down my Rob's Obs weather station as of today (July 12 2022) ending 21 years of backyard weather obs from Charleswood.  I will continue to keep my Rob's Obs weather site running as it contains many useful weather links to monitor weather in southern MB, but live weather data from the site will now come from the Gorilla weather station in Whyte Ridge. 

After moving to Winnipeg in 1998, I set up my Rob's Obs backyard weather station in 2001, a Davis station set up at my Charleswood home. At the time, there were only 3 personal weather stations online in Winnipeg, giving unofficial weather obs from private sites across the city (now there are dozens). A few years later in 2006, I started this blog giving more in depth weather information to an online community. In 2010, I started my Rob's Obs Twitter account that allowed me to reach more people with weather info. Today, online weather discussion is a commonplace thing, with plenty of social media accounts and sites dedicated to giving the public more in depth weather and climate information that you can get from the daily forecast.  

With that, I want to thank everyone out there who has been so supportive and appreciative for the weather information that I've shared over the past 2 decades.  The feedback I've received over the years has been wonderful and gratifying. I started this venture because of my personal interest and passion for weather, but your response and interest gave me the motivation and satisfaction of continuing to do it for this long. Thank you. 

On that note, it's time to say goodbye to Winnipeg. I thoroughly enjoyed my 24 years here, and will miss the city and its crazy weather. But I look forward to starting my next chapter of life back in my birthplace of Niagara, Ontario.. enjoying milder winters and friends and family back home. 

All the best Winnipeg! 

Historic early season snowstorm slams Winnipeg, much of southern Manitoba

Historic October snowstorm hammers Winnipeg and southern MB
CBC photo 

Historic. Crippling. Unprecedented. These are just a few words being used to describe an exceptionally severe early season snowstorm that hammered Winnipeg and much of southern Manitoba from Oct 10-12th 2019. The heavy snow and strong winds caused severe disruption over southern MB with many road closures, flight cancellations, downed trees and power outages. In Winnipeg, 34 cm of snow was recorded during the 2 day storm, making it the biggest October snowstorm in the city since records began in 1872 (previous record October snowstorm was 27.9 cm on Oct 30-31 1971). What made this storm particularly severe was that it occurred before Thanksgiving, while trees still had full leaf coverage. This caused extensive damage to trees and power lines especially in Winnipeg where over 30,000 trees were damaged.  At the storm's peak, over 150,000 people were without power in southern MB, the largest outage in MB Hydro history. 

HISTORIC EARLY SNOWSTORM FOR WINNIPEG

Although snow does occur on occasion before Thanksgiving in Winnipeg, snowfalls are usually less than 5 cm. A snowstorm of this magnitude this early in the season has never occurred in the Winnipeg area before (although they have elsewhere in southern MB).  The heaviest snowfall in Winnipeg before Oct 15th was 18.3 cm on Sep 25 1872 (unsure of accuracy), and more recently 13.8 cm on Oct 7-8 1985 and 10 cm on Oct 9 2009.  Early October snowstorms with heavy snowfall have occurred in southern MB, but mainly have impacted areas west of Winnipeg in the Westman region or to the southeast which have higher elevation. Such examples occurred on Oct 5 2005 when up to 45 cm fell in the Pilot Mound area, and on Oct 6-8 1959 when almost 50 cm fell in Brandon followed by another 35 cm snowfall 2 days later.  More recently, a snowstorm on Oct 4 2012 brought 10-30 cm of snow over the southeast corner of Manitoba.  Note that prior to this storm, the earliest that Winnipeg has had a snowstorm with 30 cm or more of snow was the Nov 7-8 1986 blizzard when 35.8 cm of snow fell.

For a more detailed meteorological analysis of this storm, see this University of Wisconsin link which includes stunning satellite imagery of the event as well as lightning data  (yes, there was lightning associated with this storm along with thundersnow!)   

MANITOBA ESCARPMENT AREA HARDEST HIT 

Snowy scene from Holland MB where
over 60 cm of snow fell
(photo from @Prairiechasers)

The heaviest snowfall with this storm system occurred over the western Red River valley along the Manitoba escarpment where 50 to 75 cm of snow was reported in the Morden-Winkler, Manitou, Treherne, Holland, Macgregor into Carberry areas. These areas also had the strongest winds which caused severe drifting and extensive damage to thousands of hydro poles and even some transmission towers. In Winnipeg, general snowfall totals ranged from 15 cm in the east end to 35 cm in the west, with Brandon and Dauphin both recording 30 cm. Little or no snow fell towards Swan River and north while mostly rain was recorded east of Steinbach.

Some of the highest snowfall reports included:

Carberry... 74 cm
Morden.... 64 cm
Holland.... 64 cm
between Darlingford and Miami... 61 cm
Treherne.... 60 cm
Baldur... 58 cm
Portage La Prairie... 56 cm
Waldersee.... 55 cm (southeast of McCreary)
Rathwell/Notre Dame des Lourdes... 52 cm
Schazenfeld (near Winkler)... 51 cm
Miami.... 50 cm

OCT 10 - 12 SNOWFALL TOTALS 

A report of 90 cm of total snowfall was reported at a CoCoRaHS site south of Morden near the North Dakota border.   Another CoCoRaHS site at Somerset reported a total of 87 mm of melted precipitation over the storm. Using a 7.5-8:1 snow:liquid ratio for the area would result in an estimated snowfall of 65-70 cm.   (Check out this video clip near Boissevain MB showing how bad conditions were in SW Manitoba during the height of the storm on Friday Oct 11.)

Winnipeg 9 am Thursday saw a marked
difference across the city with
heavy snow west and rain east

At my location in Charleswood in the west end of Winnipeg, snow began falling early Thursday morning (Oct 10th) as a cold drizzle overnight changed to wet snow by 6 am. The snow intensified during the morning commute with about 5-8 cm falling by 11 am. Amazingly the precipitation was still falling as rain in the eastern suburbs of Winnipeg with little or no snow accumulating in those areas much of the day as the rain/snow line split the city. By 5 pm Thursday, 13 cm of snow had fallen at my location with snow continuing through the evening. Snow became lighter overnight with an additional 8 cm by 8 am Friday (Oct 11), for a storm total of 21 cm by that point. Friday morning saw a brief break in the snow before redeveloping by late morning mixed at times with ice pellets as the main Colorado low system moved into northern Minnesota. The powerful storm system also brought strong winds to Winnipeg and the RRV Friday with north winds gusting to 80 km/h in Winnipeg, and up to 100 km/h over the MB lakes and western RRV. Snow persisted Friday afternoon with another 8 cm by 5 pm (29 cm storm total).  Snow continued Friday night before finally tapering off in Winnipeg overnight as the main area of snow pushed north and west. By 8 am Saturday (Oct 12), another 5 cm of snow had fallen at my location, for a storm total of 34.0 cm. Total melted water equivalent of the snowfall was around 55 mm, making for a very heavy wet snow (about a 6:1 snow:liquid ratio)

Oct 10 - 12 2019 METAR observations from YWG airport 

Time lapse video of storm in Winnipeg from webcam in Riverview, just south of downtown

Thu Oct 10                        Fri Oct 11 

MAJOR IMPACTS ON POWER GRID

Transmission tower damage near Portage La Prairie (left) with
map showing extent of power outages Friday (right) 

The combination of heavy wet snow and strong winds was too much for power lines and trees, causing considerable damage across southern MB. Power outages were widespread as tree branches came in contact with power lines causing power flashes and tripping power lines. An exceptionally wet September in southern MB had allowed trees to maintain greater foliage coverage into the second week of October, maximizing the potential for tree damage. Further west, the snow and wind caused many hydro poles to fall, with even some main transmission towers damaged outside Portage La Prairie.  Thousands were left without power, including much of the city of Portage La Prairie.  The province of Manitoba declared a state of emergency allowing for additional resources to help MB Hydro restore power to the worst affected areas. 

Tree damage in Winnipeg.
Twitter photo from Andrew Rampton

The following is a storm summary statement from Environment Canada:
  

A POWERFUL COLORADO LOW APPROACHED MANITOBA BEGINNING ON THURSDAY,   
OCTOBER 10TH AND BROUGHT WITH IT SUBSTANTIAL RAIN, HEAVY SNOW,   
STRONG WINDS, AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PROVINCE.   
ALL REPORTS BELOW ARE CURRENT AS OF 1 PM CDT ON SATURDAY, OCTOBER   
12TH.   
  
HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN PARKLANDS AND NORTHERN   
INTERLAKE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT HAS TAPERED OFF TO FLURRIES   
ELSEWHERE OVER THE SOUTH. THE FOLLOWING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION   
REPORTS WERE RECEIVED BY ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA   
STATIONS AND THE COOLTAP VOLUNTEER OBSERVING NETWORK:   
  
HOLLAND: 58 CM   
WASAGAMING: 33 CM   
BRANDON: 29 CM   
  
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION REPORTS RECEIVED BY ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE   
CHANGE CANADA VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:   
  
CARBERRY: 74 CM   
MORDEN: 64 CM   
STRATHCLAIR: 61 CM   
TREHERNE: 60 CM   
MIAMI: 50 CM   
MCREARY: 45 CM   
DUNREA: 40 CM   
WINNIPEG: 34 CM   
DOUGLAS: 31 CM   
DAUPHIN: 30 CM   
ROSSER: 30 CM   
  
STRONG WINDS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA, WITH MOST   
STATIONS REPORTING GUSTS IN THE 70 TO 85 KM/H RANGE ON FRIDAY OR   
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FOLLOWING PEAK WIND GUSTS WERE RECEIVED BY   
ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA STATIONS:   
  
OAKPOINT: 100 KM/H   
PORTAGE SOUTHPORT: 94 KM/H   
WINNIPEG AIRPORT: 80 KM/H   
  
THE FOLLOWING PEAK WIND GUSTS WERE RECEIVED BY ENVIRONMENT AND   
CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA VIA MANITOBA AGRICULTURE REPORTING SITES:   
  
EDEN: 101 KM/H   
CLEARWATER: 92 KM/H   
SINCLAIR: 89 KM/H   
WASKADA: 89 KM/H   
BALDUR: 87 KM/H   
SNOWFLAKE: 87 KM/H   
WINDYGATES: 87 KM/H   
LAKELAND: 85 KM/H   
ST. ROSE: 85 KM/H   
  
IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE PROVINCE, PRECIPITATION FELL CHIEFLY   
AS RAIN, TAPERING OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FOLLOWING ARE 48-HOUR   
TOTALS IN THIS AREA UP TO 9 AM CDT, OCTOBER 12, RECEIVED BY   
ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA VIA MANITOBA AGRICULTURE   
REPORTING SITES:   
  
LAC DU BONNET: 51 MM   
FLANDERS LAKE: 48 MM   
GREAT FALLS: 47 MM   
SPRAGUE LAKE: 46 MM   
FALCON LAKE: 42 MM   
ELMA: 39 MM   
GARDENTON: 38 MM   
MARCHAND: 38 MM   
SPRAGUE: 38 MM   
GREEN LAKE: 36 MM   
VIVIAN: 36 MM   
HADASHVILLE: 35 MM   
PRAWDA: 35 MM   
WOODRIDGE: 35 MM   

NOTE: Although I'm no longer updating this blog, this powerful storm system that impacted Winnipeg and much of southern MB was too significant and noteworthy not to highlight. It's important to chronicle and archive these extreme weather events so we have a record of what happened for future reference and to put them into historical perspective.

Blog no longer being updated

Please note that I am no longer updating this blog.

For weather updates and details, please follow me on Twitter at @robsobs. Thanks! 

City swamped with heavy rainfall - up to 75 mm reported in River Heights

A slow moving band of showers and embedded thunderstorms moved across the city of Winnipeg late Wednesday afternoon, resulting in a deluge of rain over much of the city. The heaviest rain moved in from the southwest around 4 pm, and proceeded to slowly track across the downtown core over the next 2-3 hours. By the time the rain tapered off in the early evening, amounts of 25 to 75 mm were reported across the city, the heaviest in the Tuxedo-River Heights area.  The heavy rain caused flash flooding of Winnipeg streets, with Pembina Highway temporarily closed due to flooding under the Jubilee overpass. By contrast, very little rain fell over southeast sections of the city with 5 mm or less over south St Vital into the Sage Creek area.

Rainfall map for city of Winnipeg based on unofficial Weather Underground
reporting sites up to 7:15 pm May 30 2018. Values in inches, contours in mm 

Official rainfall amounts for the event included:

Winnipeg Forks:  46.1 mm
Winnipeg airport: 26.3 mm 

Unofficial amounts included:

River Heights: 74 mm
Tuxedo: 69 mm
U of Winnipeg: 52 mm
Linden Woods: 25-40 mm
Charleswood: 28 mm (my site)
Whyte Ridge: 27 mm

The rainfall has made up for a very dry start to spring with virtually no rain through April into the first half of May.  As of today, May precipitation now sits at 54 mm for Winnipeg airport and 70 mm at the Forks. Average monthly precipitation in Winnipeg for May is around 60 mm.

Rainfall map from Weatherlogics using over 300 rainfall reports

Very dry weather continues.. Winnipeg closing in on top 5 dry spells of all time

The dry weather of the past 2 months continues into May, with no measurable precipitation recorded so far in the month. In fact, as of May 9th, Winnipeg has gone 27 consecutive days without any measurable precipitation. The last day with measurable precipitation in Winnipeg was on April 12th when 1.2 mm of melted snow was recorded at the airport. (measurable precipitation is defined as a day with 0.2 mm or more of melted precipitation (rain or snow)  With no significant precipitation expected through May 15th, this current dry spell may enter the record books as one of the top 5 longest dry spells in Winnipeg since records began in 1872. The chart above shows the top 5 longest dry spells in the city, the longest being 47 days without measurable precipitation in the fall of 1976. The longest dry spell in the spring (which is a more serious time for dry weather) was in 1980 when Winnipeg went 40 straight days without measurable precipitation.  How long this current dry spell will last is difficult to say at this point.. but increasingly it looks like it may become historic before it's finally over. The dry weather has caused major headaches for city firefighters who have had to battle numerous grass fires in the past few days in and around the city.     

UPDATE:  Well, the dry spell ended at YWG airport but there's a bit of a controversy over exactly when the streak ended.  Officially, the first measurable precip at YWG airport in May was on May 17th when 0.8 mm of rain fell. That would have put the dry spell at 34 days, tied with 1882 as the 4th longest dry spell on record.   However, it appears the official precipitation gauge at the airport (XWG CS station) was possibly under-reporting rainfall from the 15th through the 19th. A co-located rain gauge at XWG picked up 0.2 mm of rain on the 15th, as did many private stations in Winnipeg with some light rainshowers that day. If that's the case, the dry spell would have ended on the 15th for a streak of 32 days, which would be the 6th longest dry spell on record. Which is correct? I'm going with the latter (32 day streak) with 0.2 mm of rain on the 15th, not much, but just enough to break the precip-free streak.     

Well, it took awhile, but it looks like spring has finally sprung in Winnipeg and southern MB as sunny skies and temperatures in the mid teens signalled the warmest weather here since last October (6 months ago!)   And the springlike weather is expected to continue this weekend with temperatures in the upper teens, possibly closing in on 20C in some localities!  The only fly in the ointment will be gusty southerly winds accompanying the warm temperatures over the weekend, especially Sunday with southerly winds gusting to 50-60 km/h. Otherwise, it'll be a great weekend to enjoy the outdoors like riding your bike, getting some swings in at the driving range, or starting on that spring cleaning! Temperatures are expected to cool off to around 7-10C Tuesday, but then should rebound into the upper teens to 20C by next Thursday again. So spring is here.. at least for the next little while! Enjoy! 

Cold start to April.. spring slow to arrive this year

Those hoping for a quick transition to spring as the calendar switches to April are going to be disappointed as the Prairies remain stuck in a below normal temperature pattern for at least the next 1-2 weeks.  The colder than normal pattern will mean that an extensive lingering snowpack over the Prairies and northern Plains will be slow to disappear, making it even harder for warmer temperatures to surface. As a result, expect a slow and gradual melt this year.. likely leading to the latest snowmelt here since 2014. Precipitation over southern MB looks below normal as well as the main storm track sets up south of the international border, for this week anyways. Models are hinting of a more active pattern setting up next week over the southern Prairies which may bring some accumulating snow into southern MB again by early next week (ugh!)  

As of April 1st, the highest temperature in Winnipeg so far this year has been only +5.4C (March 27th) with no hint of double digits temperatures in the near future.  In comparison, Winnipeg had already reached double digits twice in March of 2017 (including 12.3C on March 29th), and another 10 times in the first 2 weeks of April 2017 (19.8C on Apr 8th). We'll need to lose a lot more snowpack before we see temperatures like that this year.  Note that normal highs in early April in Winnipeg are +5C, rising to +10C by mid month and 15C by April 30th.   

Potent storm system to bring widespread snow to southern MB Sunday night into Tuesday

Surface weather map valid midnight Sunday night shows
system bringing widespread snow across southern MB

A potent storm system is forecast to develop over the central US plains later this weekend, and is expected to bring widespread snow to southern MB Sunday night into Tuesday. After a quiet winter that has seen very little snowfall (the lowest Dec-Feb snowfall in at least 30 years in Winnipeg), this upcoming storm system has the potential to produce the most significant snowfall of the season for much of southern MB, including Winnipeg. There's still a lot of uncertainty with how this storm will track and develop, but at this point, it's looking like a widespread snowfall of 15-30 cm is possible for many areas by Tuesday.

Preceding this main storm will be an initial system on Saturday that will bring a band of snow which will push across southern MB and settle into the Interlake region. This initial impulse may bring a couple cm of slushy snow to southern MB, but it shouldn't have much impact with temperatures around the melting point. Some rain may even mix in Saturday afternoon.

Things will start to get interesting by Sunday afternoon as the main storm system starts intensifying as it moves out of Colorado. This storm will track into Minnesota by Sunday night spreading a widespread area of snow across southern MB. The snow may be wet and slushy at first with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark Sunday through Sunday night. Snow could be heavy at times Sunday night into Monday as the storm system slowly pushes across Minnesota, with gusty northeast winds as well. This will make for treacherous driving conditions across southern MB Monday. Snowfall will linger into Tuesday before the system gradually winds down. As noted, snowfall amounts are still tough to predict this far out based on uncertainty in storm track and temperature profile, but in general, it looks like most of southern MB could be looking at 15-30 cm between Saturday and Tuesday night. The highest amounts would likely be over the western Red River valley with some upslope enhancement along the Pembina escarpment, but many areas have the potential to see significant snowfall with embedded bands of heavier snow. Stay tuned as more information becomes available on this developing storm system.     

Brief mid week warm up.. but generally below normal this week and next. Snow drought continues..

It's been a cold start to February across southern Manitoba, and it looks like the cold weather will persist through much of this week and next. There will be some brief warmups from time to time (such as this Wednesday), but overall, it looks like a below normal temperature pattern is expected across the Prairies through next week. As of Feb 10th, the average temperature at YWG airport has been -21.4C, about 6C below average for the first 10 days of the month.  It's been the 3rd coldest start to February in the past 20 years (only Feb 2007 and 2014 had colder starts) 

As for this week, it will be another cold start to the work week as temperatures drop to the -30C mark early Monday with winds of 10-15 km/h producing windchills near -40.  Highs of -16C are expected by afternoon, about 6C below the average high of -10C for this time of year. Temperatures will moderate to -5C by Tuesday but gusty SW winds of 30-50 km/h will make it feel colder. On Wednesday, a clipper system will track through the MB interlake area bringing a brief warmup to southern MB, with highs rising close to the freezing mark in Winnipeg by Wednesday afternoon. The mild spell will be short lived however as a trailing cold front pushes through in the afternoon, sending temperatures falling as strong northerly winds develop. Some snow and blowing snow will likely develop as well Wednesday afternoon and evening as the colder air spreads in. This will lead into another few days of colder than normal weather to end the week Thursday and Friday. Temperatures are expected to moderate again next weekend, but again, the warmup looks short lived as colder weather returns for the third week of February. 

Precipitation-wise, new snowfall looks minimal again across southern MB. There may be a bit of snow with the Arctic front Wednesday (tr - 2 cm) but other than that, no significant precipitation is expected over southern MB through next weekend. As of Feb 10th, Winnipeg has seen only 52.8 cm of snow this winter.. its lowest snowfall to this point in the winter since the winter of 2011-12 (48 cm to Feb 10th) and the 2nd least snowfall to Feb 10th in at least 20 years. (On average, Winnipeg gets about 76 cm of snow by Feb 10th). Last winter, Winnipeg had seen 121 cm of snow by Feb 10th - over twice the amount this season - thanks in large part to the snowiest December in 58 years.  The meager snowfall this winter has boosted the city of Winnipeg's 2017 municipal budget surplus by another $6 million thanks to less than projected snowclearing operations.

Get ready for a wintery blast Tuesday! Strong winds and snow with blowing snow and poor visibilities on the way for Winnipeg and RRV

Intense clipper system will be tracking across central MB
Tuesday bring snow, strong winds to much of the province.
Winds/blowing snow will be the main issue for RRV

An intense clipper system will be tracking across Manitoba Tuesday bringing strong winds and snow to much of the province. Here in Winnipeg and the Red River valley, winds will be the main story rather than snowfall Tuesday, especially through the midday and afternoon hours when southerly winds will be howling up the valley gusting to 70 or even 80 km/h. These winds, combined with loose and falling snow, will lead to widespread blowing and drifting snow with poor to blizzard-like conditions in the open country. Keep this in mind if you plan on being on the roads tomorrow. Snowfall amounts with this system will be highest over the Interlake and central MB, where 10-20 cm of snow is possible.. while amounts here in Winnipeg and the RRV will be in the 5 cm range. Snowfall amounts however will be impossible to measure accurately as winds will be so strong here in the RRV, with extensive drifting. Winds shift into the NW behind the system by Tuesday evening, with gusts of 60-70 kmh at times bringing colder temperatures for the rest of the week. 

One more mild day Tuesday, then colder weather pushes in Wednesday with gusty winds and some snow

Weather map for noon Wednesday shows southern  MB
in cold northerly flow behind an Arctic cold front 

Above normal temperatures will continue across southern Manitoba Tuesday as a southeast flow sends temperatures up to the freezing mark by Tuesday afternoon across the RRV including Winnipeg. The mild weather will persist Tuesday night into early Wednesday before a sharp Arctic cold front pushes through the RRV Wednesday morning, shifting winds into the north and sending temperatures falling through the day. In addition, the cold front will be accompanied by a band of snow as it pushes through, with 1-3 cm possible through midday. The gusty north winds will also lead to blowing and drifting snow especially outside the city, with a period of poor visibilities likely as the band of snow pushes through. Driving conditions will likely become poor for a few hours Wednesday across the RRV so be prepared for a return to wintery conditions if you're out and about. Temperatures near -5C early Wednesday in Winnipeg will plummet to -12C by noon, and -18C by 5 pm, so be prepared for a much colder commute home.  Cold but dry weather is expected for the remainder of the week into the weekend. 

Coldest final week of December in over 80 years. Frigid weather eases as we head into January

It was a frigid end to December over much of the continent, including throughout the Prairies and southern Manitoba. In Winnipeg, the final week of the month averaged a bone-chilling -27.7C, the coldest final week of December since 1933, and the 4th coldest since records began in 1872. 

The frigid finish to December was in stark contrast to the first 3 weeks of the month which were milder than normal. In fact, through Dec 23rd, December was averaging about 3C above normal (-10C vs -13C)  But that all changed by Christmas Eve as frigid temperatures moved in for the holidays with temperatures averaging over 10C below normal between Christmas and New Year's Eve. As a result, December ended up about 1.5C below normal in Winnipeg with a mean temperature of -14.8C  (vs the December "normal" of -13.2C)  

December 2017 in Winnipeg. Very cold finish
spoiled an otherwise mild month  

Luckily, the massive Arctic airmass that has plagued much of North America over the past week has retreated for the beginning of January with temperatures rising to normal values in southern MB, and even above freezing in Alberta, which had seen temperatures of -40C just a couple days ago. Colder weather will prevail through this week (but not like last week), before another moderating trend sets in next weekend with temperatures near or above normal over southern Manitoba. Seasonably cold weather is expected next week.  Mid January marks the coldest time of the year on average in southern MB with normal highs of -13C and lows of -23C for Winnipeg. Daily averages slowly climb through the latter half of January rising 2C by Feb 1st.  

Mild weather continues Monday.. then turning colder this week with coldest airmass of the season moving in by Christmas

The relatively mild weather over the first half of December across southern MB will continue for one more day Monday, before significantly colder weather moves in this week. Even colder weather is expected by next weekend as the coldest airmass of the season so far pushes in across the Prairies for the Christmas holidays.

Temperature forecast for Winnipeg over next 10 days shows cold trend
setting in this week, with temperatures near -30C possible by Christmas
(graphic from weather.us)

In the short term, a westerly push of mild air will sweep across southern Manitoba Monday pushing temperatures up to the 0 to +1C mark over southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg. There may be some wet snow pushing across areas south of the TransCanada highway to the US border Monday morning through midday as a weak disturbance pushes through. In the wake of this system colder air will move into southern MB for Tuesday with temperatures dropping to the -10C mark by late afternoon. This will be the start of a period of much colder weather with temperatures near -20c expected by Wednesday morning. Highs Wednesday through Friday will only be in the minus teens with lows near -20C which is actually about average for this time of year (Normal hi -10C, low -20c)

Frigid weather expected for Christmas holidays

850 mb temperature forecast by European model for Christmas morning
shows massive Arctic vortex pushing across Manitoba with temps near -30C
(graphic from weather.us)

Unfortunately, things look to get even colder by next weekend just in time for Christmas as a massive push of Arctic air plunges south ushering in the coldest airmass of the season so far into southern Manitoba. This will bring daytime temperatures only in the minus 20s, with overnight lows  around -30C or lower.  Windchills may push into the warning criteria of -40 or lower at times over the Christmas holidays. Weatherwise, it looks mainly dry with no major storms or snowfall expected over the holidays with Arctic high pressure in place, so travel conditions should be okay across southern Manitoba. Otherwise, be prepared for frigid weather as you make your holiday plans!

Forecast temperatures Christmas morning shows widespread temps
of -30 to -35C across much of Manitoba with local -40C possible
(graphic from weather.us)

Surface map for Christmas morning shows massive Arctic high (1062 mb!)
over southern Saskatchewan driving frigid Arctic air across Manitoba
(graphic from tropicaltidbits.com)

Snow on the way Monday as pattern changing storm system impacts southern MB and NW Ontario. Colder weather to follow..

Forecast map valid midnight Tuesday shows strong winter storm system near
Thunder Bay with strong winds and snow on backside of system. Low will
track from South Dakota and increase in intensity as it heads northeast   

A storm system tracking across South Dakota tonight will move into Minnesota Monday and intensify as it heads into NW Ontario Monday night into Tuesday. This system is expected to bring snow to southern MB Monday, with the highest amounts expected near the Ontario border where 10-15 cm is expected by Tuesday morning. For Winnipeg and the RRV, 5 cm is expected with up to 10 cm for eastern and southern areas (Steinbach, Emerson, etc)  However, northerly winds are expected to increase Monday afternoon into Monday night which will lead to deteriorating conditions due to blowing and drifting snow with poor visibilities. Temperatures will also be falling into the minus teens Monday night with little recovery Tuesday. Cold weather is expected for the rest of the week before some moderation by week's end. So be prepared for a return to winterlike conditions for the new work week after a pleasant weekend and mild end to November.  

Mild weekend will give way to colder weather next week as upper pattern shifts

The mild weather of the past week or two will continue for the upcoming weekend.. but changes are brewing by early next week as the upper weather pattern changes. The mild weather this past week has been the result of an upper "zonal" flow which brings milder Pacific air across the Prairies while preventing cold Arctic airmasses from advancing south. This pattern will persist over the upcoming weekend but will begin to change to a more amplified "wavy" upper pattern next week which will allow colder air from the Arctic to advance south into southern MB.  The transition to this colder pattern will be marked by some snow Sunday night into Monday with a few cm possible* (see UPDATE below), before northerly winds bring in colder air Monday afternoon into Tuesday.  Temperatures will drop into the minus teens through mid week before some moderation by the end of the week as temperatures rebound back to normal (or even above normal) by mid December.

After that.. there is some uncertainty in how the upper pattern will evolve over Manitoba. The current thinking is that the upper pattern leading up to Christmas will be dominated by an upper ridge over the west coast and  troughing over the Great Lakes/eastern NA.  This would place Manitoba in a northwest upper flow which generally means below normal temperatures here with occasional very cold outbreaks. However, the intensity and duration of these cold snaps will depend on the strength and location of these upper features. At this point, the core of the coldest air is expected over eastern North America which would imply occasional but transitory cold snaps over southern Manitoba modified at times by periodic clipper systems. Until then, get ready for a return to colder weather this upcoming week.

UPDATE (Sun Dec 3):  Storm system will be intensifying overnight through Monday as it tracks across northern Minnesota into NW Ontario. Current guidance indicates the bulk of snow with this system will fall over SE MB into NW Ontario, with Winnipeg and RRV on the western flank of the snow shield. Snowfall from this system will range from 5 cm in the RRV to 10-15 cm closer to the Ontario border overnight through Monday. Increasing winds Monday afternoon into Monday night along with falling temperatures will produce worsening traveling conditions especially south and east of Winnipeg with blowing and drifting snow likely.  

Mild week ahead.. November ending on a mild note after cold start

After a cool weekend, milder weather is set to return to southern Manitoba Monday as another clipper system brings in a shot of warmer air from the west. Temperatures are expected to climb above freezing again across much of southern MB Monday with afternoon temperatures near +3C and up to +7C over snowfree and downslope areas.  Mild weather last Friday eroded a lot of the snowpack over far southern and SW MB, where a lot of bare ground is now becoming exposed even just south of Winnipeg.  This will make it easier for mild temperatures to surface, eroding even more of the snowpack over the next week.   Tuesday will see cooler temperatures return, but will still be near or above normal (normal highs now are -4C)  Temperatures are expected to remain above normal the rest of the week with highs near or above the freezing mark through Friday.  So after a frigid start to November (7th coldest start on record over the first 10 days), the month will end up on a mild note with above normal temperatures likely persisting into the early part of December.

Clipper system brings brief warmup Monday, then getting windy and colder again by evening

A fairly intense clipper system will track through the Interlake area Monday bringing a brief warmup to southern MB as gusty southwest winds push our temperature above the freezing mark (+1C) by afternoon. There could be a band of snow and/or freezing rain ahead of the warm front Monday morning, but accumulations look minimal over southern MB. The bulk of snow will be associated near and north of the clipper system across the northern Interlake and central MB where 10-15 cm is possible. As the system tracks east towards Ontario later in the day, winds will shift into the northwest and increase to 40G60-70 kmh by evening over southern MB, with temperatures falling below freezing along with occasional snowshowers and local blowing snow at times. Road conditions will become slick as the melting conditions of the afternoon quickly freeze up Monday evening. We could see a cm or 2 of snow in the wraparound behind the clipper system before things clear out by Tuesday morning. Colder conditions will return through mid week before a brief moderation again by late week with another clipper system.

Milder week ahead.. but changes loom for late week

After a frigid start to November, the weather pattern is expected to moderate this upcoming week with temperatures more typical of mid November. The first 10 days of the month have averaged -8.8C in Winnipeg, some 7C below normal for the time period, and the 7th coldest start to November since records began in 1872. The past week featured the coldest Nov 9th on record when the temperature fell to -23.7C at Winnipeg airport, with a record low maximum of only -11.4C. This cold start is in sharp contrast to November 2016, which had the warmest start to November on record at +7.0C, an astonishing 16C warmer than this year!

The good news is that temperatures will be a lot more tolerable this week as the persistent Arctic airmass moves off allowing milder air to move in. Conditions look pleasant for the Bombers game Sunday with partly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures near -5C with light winds. Milder temperatures will move in for the new week with temperatures climbing above freezing by Tuesday (high of +2C)  Generally seasonal temperatures are expected through mid week (highs near freezing) before a storm system moves in Friday bringing windy and colder conditions by next weekend.  Until then, enjoy the milder weather this week!  

Get ready folks.. winter arrives this weekend. Snowy Saturday followed by Arctic cold next week

Storm system will spread snow across srn MB Saturday.
10-15 cm is possible along with colder temps behind it

We've had a few tastes of it over the past week or so, but after this weekend, there'll be no doubt about it.. winter will have arrived in Winnipeg and southern MB. A storm system tracking through the Dakotas will spread snow across all of southern MB Friday night into Saturday with a general swath of  5-15 cm possible for many areas including Winnipeg. Winnipeg dodged a bullet Wednesday missing out on an earlier system, but Saturday's system looks more significant and will be harder to miss.  So get ready for a snowy Saturday and poor travelling conditions through the day into Saturday night. And sadly, say goodbye to that bare ground.. this system looks like the start of our winter snowcover that will likely last into next spring! If you haven't done so already, get those snow tires on and get your car winter ready.. or consider postponing travel Saturday if you are not prepared for winter driving yet.

In the wake of Saturday's system, northwest winds will usher in colder air for the new work week, with temperatures some 10C below normal for early November. With fresh snowcover, temperatures will only climb to around -5 to -8C next week, with lows of -15C to possibly -20C! (Average highs right now are +4C, lows of -5C)  Some moderation is possible later next week, but overall, it looks like below normal temperatures will persist well into mid November and likely beyond. This is in sharp contrast to last year when southern MB enjoyed its warmest November on record, with Winnipeg not seeing its first measurable snowfall of the season until Nov 22nd.. the latest start to the snow season ever.  No such luck this year! Winter arrives at least 3 weeks earlier this year.. so get ready!  

UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTALS: 
(source: Env Canada and CoCoRaHS)

Rossburn ........ 23 cm
Roblin ............ 20 cm
Russell............. 19 cm
Woodlands ..... 14 cm
Brandon .......... 13 cm
Neepawa ........ 11 cm
Winnipeg ........ 10 cm
Pinawa .............  9 cm
Steinbach .......... 7 cm
Virden .............. 7 cm
Portage .,..........  6 cm
Emerson ........... 5 cm

Chilly but dry for Halloween.. snow moves in to start off November along with below normal temps

After a blustery and cold Monday with gusty winds and occasional flurries, things will settle down somewhat Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure crosses southern MB. That will give lighter winds much of the day along with generally fair conditions.. so no rain or snow to contend with for Halloween (unlike last year which saw 16 mm of rain.. Winnipeg's wettest Halloween on record). Temperatures will be on the cold side of normal Tuesday, with afternoon highs only near freezing, and evening temperatures of  -2 to -4C. Winds will also be picking up by late afternoon, with brisk southeast winds of 20 to 40 km/h Halloween evening producing wind chills near -10. Bundle up if you're out with the kiddies!

On Wednesday, a clipper system will track through the Dakotas spreading snow across much of southern MB Wednesday into Wednesday night. At this point, it looks like a general 2 to 5 cm is likely with this system, including Winnipeg, with locally higher amounts of 5-10 cm possible in some areas. Below normal temperatures will persist through at least the first week of November behind this system.. a far different story than last year when Winnipeg and southern MB recorded its warmest November on record.