Sunday, November 19, 2017
Clipper system brings brief warmup Monday, then getting windy and colder again by evening
A fairly intense clipper system will track through the Interlake area Monday bringing a brief warmup to southern MB as gusty southwest winds push our temperature above the freezing mark (+1C) by afternoon. There could be a band of snow and/or freezing rain ahead of the warm front Monday morning, but accumulations look minimal over southern MB. The bulk of snow will be associated near and north of the clipper system across the northern Interlake and central MB where 10-15 cm is possible. As the system tracks east towards Ontario later in the day, winds will shift into the northwest and increase to 40G60-70 kmh by evening over southern MB, with temperatures falling below freezing along with occasional snowshowers and local blowing snow at times. Road conditions will become slick as the melting conditions of the afternoon quickly freeze up Monday evening. We could see a cm or 2 of snow in the wraparound behind the clipper system before things clear out by Tuesday morning. Colder conditions will return through mid week before a brief moderation again by late week with another clipper system.
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Rob could we really get up to plus 5 on Friday?
ReplyDeleteQuite possible. Similar setup Friday as today with clipper system tracking through Interlake and we briefly warm sector. We got to +3C today and Friday’s warm sector looks even warmer than today (temps will be in the double digits over southern AB and SW SK Thursday) But like today, mild temps will be short lived as cold front quickly pushes through by Friday afternoon/evening.
DeleteThat sucks. We are probably going to lose our snowpack won’t we? But is it true we will fall rapidly to the minus double digits Friday night? After that it looks cold into early December doesn’t it?
DeleteA few hours of plus temperatures won't do much to our snowpack at this time of year. Look at yesterday.. +3C and our snowpack is still here. You need a sustained period of above freezing temperatures, both day and night, along with dewpoint temperatures above 0C and some rain to really eat at our snowpack. So one day at +5C is not going to do much.. unfortunately.
DeleteYeah that makes sense. Our snowpack is rather thin though isn’t it? About 6cm? I suspect it will stay until spring though. There actually is lot of grass poking through in a lot of places
DeleteI have 8 cm snowdepth in my yard, while the airport is down to 3 cm snowdepth due to its more exposed location. Snowdepth will vary depending on wind exposure, urban effects, etc. Certainly starting to see bare spots but again, it will require a longer duration of above freezing temps to really get rid of the white stuff completely.
ReplyDeleteRob, when is winter actually expected to set in for good? Seems we’ve been up and down this month
DeleteCan't really say. All I know is that temps will near to above normal over the next week or so into early Dec. I expect weather to turn colder after that.. but too far out to say how cold or how long. I don't like to get into long range forecasts too much since they're so uncertain.
DeleteReally warm temps flooding over western Prairies today and Thursday. Lots of double digits spreading into southern AB this morning.. and moving into srn SK Thursday. We will get a taste of this warm sector briefly Friday morning but a cold front will quickly blow through by midday with falling temps and strong winds by afternoon. Friday morning will see some interesting temps in the traditionally warmer downslope locations to our west.. places like McCreary and Morden could be close to 10C at daybreak!
ReplyDeleteI’m sure they will see an elimination of the snowpack for sure. Crazy warmth after the record cold to start the month.
DeleteUp to 16C in southern AB today (Lethbridge) and 19C in southwest ND! Expect plenty of double digit temps over SW SK Thursday (Moose Jaw, Swift Current, etc)
Delete19C!! Wow! And considering we’ve been locked in winter since early November. Rob where does the line of the continuous snowpack end of the western/southern edge?
DeleteHow warm could we get?
Much of North Dakota and Montana are snowfree, with the snowline running along the US border into NE ND. Snowcover is patchy across far southern SK into SW SK. Those areas will be he warmest places over the next day or two.
Delete3 pm temps in southern SK include 19C in Val Marie, 18C in Coronach, 14C in Estevan, and 12C in Swift Current and Moose Jaw. +7C in snowcovered Regina. Found it odd that yesterday, the forecast high for Regina for today (10C) was higher than Moose Jaw (9C) Not likely with a SW downslope flow. By the way, ground is pretty much bare (no snow) over far southern and SW SK.
DeleteRob didn’t southern SK get the early winter cold snap really severe? Did they have a snowpack that melted now?
DeleteWarm air out west will be flooding across southern MB tonight into Friday morning. Temps will be climbing towards the freezing mark this afternoon in Winnipeg, before going above freezing this evening. (Forecast high of +2C in Winnipeg won't occur until evening. Temps will be below freezing much of the day) Temps really climb tonight as winds shift into the southwest and tap that milder air out west. Even in Winnipeg, we'll likely climb to +5C or so by midnight, with some downslope areas west of Winnipeg possibly hitting +8 to +10C overnight! We'll start off balmy Friday morning with temps near +5C, but then gradually cool off through the day as winds sift into the NW behind a cold front. Still, I think our temps will stay above freezing much of the day before slipping below freezing by late afternoon.
ReplyDeleteTemperatures have already climbed to the +10C mark this afternoon to the lee of the Turtle Mtns in SW MB, thanks to warming downslope winds tapping some of that very mild air over North Dakota. Bismarck is up to 22C as of 2 pm, their warmest Thanksgiving on record! Going to see dramatic warming developing over srn MB tonight into Fri am, especially in the traditionally warmer downslope areas to the lee of the Riding Mtns and Pembina escarpment tonight into Fri as winds shift into the SW.. in places like McCreary and Morden. Winds could also be quite strong as inversion breaks down Friday, with westerly gusts of 70-80 km/h possible esplly in those downslope areas.
DeleteWOW! 4C as of 11PM here but Morden up to 9C, incredible..
DeleteBismarck always gets very warm during situations like this in the spring and fall, much warmer than this. Why is this? Are we going to lose to our snowcover?
+10C OVERNIGHT in late November. That’s honestly insane.
DeleteSatellite and webcam imagery shows snowcover has become very patchy over the southern RRV and SW Manitoba, with virtually no snow on the ground now along and south of the US border. Lots of bare ground popping up south of Winnipeg with minimal snowcover by the time you get to Morris. I'm surprised how quickly snowcover has disappeared given the rather brief nature of this warmup.. impressive as it was. With temperatures at or above freezing next week, snowpack will continue to erode even in Winnipeg.
ReplyDelete