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| Storm system will spread snow across srn MB Saturday. 10-15 cm is possible along with colder temps behind it |
In the wake of Saturday's system, northwest winds will usher in colder air for the new work week, with temperatures some 10C below normal for early November. With fresh snowcover, temperatures will only climb to around -5 to -8C next week, with lows of -15C to possibly -20C! (Average highs right now are +4C, lows of -5C) Some moderation is possible later next week, but overall, it looks like below normal temperatures will persist well into mid November and likely beyond. This is in sharp contrast to last year when southern MB enjoyed its warmest November on record, with Winnipeg not seeing its first measurable snowfall of the season until Nov 22nd.. the latest start to the snow season ever. No such luck this year! Winter arrives at least 3 weeks earlier this year.. so get ready!
UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTALS:
(source: Env Canada and CoCoRaHS)
Rossburn ........ 23 cm
Roblin ............ 20 cm
Russell............. 19 cm
Woodlands ..... 14 cm
Brandon .......... 13 cm
Neepawa ........ 11 cm
Winnipeg ........ 10 cm
Pinawa ............. 9 cm
Steinbach .......... 7 cm
Virden .............. 7 cm
Portage .,.......... 6 cm
Emerson ........... 5 cm
Bring it on!!! I’m ready!
ReplyDeleteThat moderation late next week, would we be talking about highs getting above freezing and melting the new snowcover? It seems we cooldown signifcantly after that again.
So 10-15cm likely for Winnipeg then?
15 cm may be on the high side for Winnipeg.. but I think we have a shot at 10 cm. Our temps get close to 0C Saturday afternoon, so there may be some melting, but overall, it should stay as a steady snowfall into Saturday evening. That should do it for our bare ground.. I don't see our snowcover disappearing with those temperatures next week coming up. And after that, any milder weather will be too brief to do much.
DeleteThanks. But the weather network is predicting rain for us now... is this actually a possibility? I sure hope not. I want to actually get our winter snowcover going
DeleteAll guidance keeps us as snow Saturday.. me may get some wet snow/melting Saturday afternoon as temperatures hover near 0C, but temperatures aloft are too cold to support rain, at least here in Winnipeg. Might see some rain mixed in near the US border and over SE MB.
DeleteThanks rob. So where could TWN be pulling this from? They said mixed precip.
DeleteHoping for good accumulating snow here. is it likely we should get more than 5cm? Is confidence higher for this one than Wednesday’s?
Apart from the warm near surface temperatures Saturday night.. another caveat may be lackluster saturation/lift in the dendritic snow growth layer (where efficient growth of snow crystals occurs). The layer is deepest and best saturated initially (Saturday morning), with a bit of a warm nose developing during the day Saturday at 700 hPa. Some model soundings also show considerable saturation below the dendritic growth zone down towards the surface. This favors formation/ coalescence of super-cooled water droplets. This may result in freezing drizzle during periods of lesser forcing - which could cut down on snow amounts. Strong cold advection occurs at the midlevels Saturday night into Sunday morning (while it lags a bit at the surface), but saturation height starts decreasing and precipitation band shifts NE.
ReplyDeleteI don’t know much about that weather terminology, but I sure hope we won’t see any drizzle. I want this snow
DeleteGuidance still pretty consistent on Winnipeg seeing about 10 cm of snow with our system tomorrow.. although there will be some melting Saturday afternoon as temperatures hover around the 0°C mark. Actual accumulations for Winnipeg should come in the 5 to 10 cm range.. with higher amounts of 10-15 cm over higher elevations of SW MB.
ReplyDeleteI hope we actually get accumulating snow this time. Do you still think it will start out the winter snowpack?
DeleteYes. If we get that 5-10 cm tomorrow, it will be tough to get rid of with the below normal temperatures expected much of this month. Once you get to mid November, it's rare to lose your snowpack here. It can happen if the pattern flips to mild and dry for a prolonged period, but it's not common.
DeleteThanks.
DeleteI’ve heard of a warmup coming late next week. Would we be talking above zero temps again?
May get to +1C or so, but likely won't last long. Looks like generally below normal temps much of the month.
DeleteSnowfall warnings issued, yes!!!!! Is the upper range of 10-15cm looking likely now?
DeleteSome of those forecasted temperatures next week are insane. Could we really be seeing highs of -7C and lows of -18C?
There’s hardly any snow on the ground... is this another ripoff?
ReplyDeleteIts another dud! Looks like most of the snow is staying North of the city.
ReplyDeleteRelax folks... it's just getting started! Radar should start filling in shortly so expect snow to pick up in intensity through this morning into this afternoon before tapering off this evening. I'm not sure Winnipeg will get 10 cm today (unless we get under a heavy band for awhile) but I think we should still see something in the 5-8 cm range before it's done.
ReplyDeleteI hope so. Why does the radar show all the snow north of the city right now? So disappointing.
DeleteUgh, we always get way less than predicted
DeleteRob how much snow have you received so far?
ReplyDelete7 cm as of 2 pm.. still snowing at a pretty good clip. Back edge of heavier snow should be through here by 3-30 pm, then light snow into early evening. Should be close to 10 cm by the time it's over.
DeleteStill going pretty good now at 2:38PM. Let me know what your final totals are when it stops. Will the snow continue for a few hours still?
DeleteNAEFS giving us a 100% chance below normal temps through November 19th, this really is going to be a month for the record books isn’t it? Wow
ReplyDeleteLooks like around 7 cm still most areas, with about 5 cm in open locations. Finally getting snow pellets or graupel mixing in with these last few bands as dendritic growth layer diminishes. This will probably limit further accumulations somewhat. Wouldn't be surprised to start getting patchy freezing drizzle as well.
ReplyDeleteThere was some freezing drizzle but it seems to be back to light snow again. Temperature has risen to 0C. Rob said he had 8.6cm
DeleteWhat a blast of snow these past 30mins or so. Rob how much accumulation now?
ReplyDeleteIt looks like we broke a snowfall record
ReplyDeleteStorm total of 10 cm at my location.
ReplyDeleteStorm snowfall reports from yesterday (data from EC climate observers):
ReplyDeleteRoblin: 15 cm
Rossburn: 14 cm
St Labre: 12 cm
Holland: 10 cm
Winnipeg: 10 cm
Pinawa: 9 cm
Generally 5-10 cm over Winnipeg/RRV. 10-15 cm over western MB into the Interlake.
Yep, nice snowpack on the ground now
DeleteRob. Does it look like we could be warming up in a week or so?
ReplyDeleteYup.. guidance showing moderation next week. Hopefully they don't back off on it.
DeleteWhat kind of temps could we be moderating to? Warm enough to melt our snowpack? I hope not
DeleteLike above freezing? Please Not well above freezing
DeleteDidn’t even get to -4C today and down close to -7C as of 3PM. It’s going to be cold tonight, this snowpack already showing it’s effects on our temperature. Near-record cold this week. I wouldn’t rule out a -20C low. What are your thoughts rob?
ReplyDeleteYeah, I think a -20C low is possible for Winnipeg sometime this week, but it will have to be with clear skies and light winds under high pressure (perhaps Friday morning?). Lots of sub -20C readings in western SK and AB this morning!
DeleteIncredible cold for so early. The exact opposite of last year. I’d love to see a -20C reading this early.
DeleteIs it true that Thursday may not even exceed -10C? Looking incredibly cold
Thursday is Nov 9th. We hit a record high of 18.8C last year on that date. Record low maximum for the 9th is -11.4C (1986) which we may challenge this week. 30C colder this year.. ridiculous.
DeleteYep! But I Don’t mind it!
DeleteThis really does highlight the extremes our climate is going through this decade. We have had incredible warmth events, March 2012, springs 15 and 16, November 2016, winter 2011-12 and 2015-16. We’ve also had incredible cold events, such as springs 2013 and 14, winter 2013-14, April 2013 notably. And now this.
The pattern this decade has really been drastic swings between extreme cold and extreme warmth. Although this cold really is crazy, it’s so early!!
I remember nov 9th last year, many stations across the city were reading 20C! It was insane. Record warmth last year, to near record cold this year. What a change.
Not always the case, but there are good examples of us getting almost the inverse (much colder in general) the year following a warmest month.
Delete-March 2013 was over 5C below normal, following the warmest March in 2012.
-September 2010 was the coldest September of the 21st century, following the warmest September in 2009.
-Now this November compared to last year.
-The exception this century was January 2007 which followed the warmest January in 2006. In 2007, January was also above normal, but then we had -40C temperatures in the first week of February.
It does seem to trend that way for sure. JJ are we warming next week and how much?
DeleteYIKES! -11.1C as of 7PM!! That’s insane. A -20 windchill too. This cold snap isn’t joking around. Feels like a December night out there. I wonder how cold it’s gonna get.
ReplyDeleteRob could we get above freezing next week? Could it melt all this snow?
ReplyDeleteAnother example of the horrors of automated forecasting
ReplyDeleteTomorrow “ High minus 7, wind chill -29 “
That’s for one hour in the morning but it’s listed for the whole day
Yes, a very misleading forecast. That windchill of -29 would only be valid first thing in the morning when the temperature was -19C (the overnight low). The windchill would moderate through the day as the temperature rose. A more accurate forecast would read.. "Lowest windchill -29 in the morning". Again, poor computer coding that generates poorly worded automated forecasts.
DeleteYeah. It’s ridiculous. I’m disappointed in the poor quality of these forecasts. Was it like this the whole time you were at EC?
DeleteRegarding Thursday, is a low maximum looking possible? What about tonight, could we break the -21.1C in 1936 record?
Rob why are CPC outlooks pasting us above normal? I thought we were supposed to be cold?
ReplyDeleteLooks more like "near normal" for us.. above normal mainly to our south and east. Whatever the case, it does look like we moderate from this abnormal cold this week to something more tolerable next week.. thank goodness. Way too early for this type of cold..
DeleteI am enjoying this cold Rob! I’m ready for it to stay! You never would have survived the winters of the 1800s!
DeleteCould we see a lot of our new snow melt? Are we going to return to cold at any point this month?
We may get a little more snow later this week (2-5 cm), before we lose a bit next week with the milder temps. But I don't think we'll see it go completely. Hard to get ride of a snowpack now unless you get rain and above freezing temps through the night.
DeleteTrue. I hope we don’t lose the snow a snow it might as well stay now. Does this warmer pattern look prolonged or just temporary?
DeleteTemporary unfortunately. Models trending colder after the 15th..
DeleteLike back to the kind of cold we’ve been seeing again?
DeleteCould we be challenging tomorrow’s low maximum record? Remember it was 19C last year!
ReplyDeleteThat’s cold out there today.....
ReplyDeleteRob we broke the record low this morning!
ReplyDeleteWow.. airport dropped like a rock overnight to a record low of -23.7C this morning, beating the old record of -20.6C in 1933 and 1966. Airport site was the coldest spot in the Winnipeg area.. most stations inside the city didn't even hit the -20C mark. Still.. ridiculously cold this early. And to think we hit a record HIGH of 18.8C a year ago!
ReplyDeleteI agree that’s insane. In fact, have we ever been colder earlier than this rob? This is the coldest temp for so early in the year ever isn’t it? And we challenge the low maximum today too
DeleteSince 1872, there have been only 2 days in Winnipeg history that have been colder than today this early. The temperature hit -23.9C on Nov 3 1873 and also Nov 3 1893. Other than that, this is the coldest temperature so early in the winter season, certainly since the airport started keeping records in 1938. (We hit -26.3C on Nov 11 1986 following the big blizzard of Nov 7-8 1986)
DeleteAs of 3 pm, our maximum today at Winnipeg airport has been -11.4C. If that holds as the day's high, it will tie the record low maximum of -11.4C set on Nov 9 1986, the day after that massive blizzard ended. If so, Nov 9th will have the record high max and min both set in 2016, and the daily low max/min both set in 2017. Amazing stat..
Rob, would you call this extreme or unprecedented cold? I don’t ever remember it being this cold this early
DeleteIt's certainly abnormally cold for this early, but I wouldn't call it unprecedented. We had colder starts to November in 2003, 1991, 1936, and 1935 (by average temperature). 1991 had 4 record low maximums of -10C to -12C in the first 6 days. So not unprecedented.. but certainly a top 5 cold start to November in the past 145 years.
DeleteYeah, it’s been pretty cold. That’s for sure.
DeleteAfter next weeks warmup do we cool down again?
Matthew I agree I prefer the snow when our Novembers are cold. I tend to dress more appropriately for the weather and it brightens things up now that our daylight hours are much less.
ReplyDeleteYes I want snow!
DeleteAnother cold one tonight, but not likely as cold as last night as winds start backing to the south and pick oup overnight. Airport may get down close to -20C this evening before temperature steadies or rises overnight. Friday not looking pleasant at all.. a cold gusty south wind of 40-60 km/h with some snow moving in by the afternoon into the evening, so blowing snow and poor visibility will be a concern especially in open areas and outside the Perimeter. Drive home will be impacted. Weekend looking better, and pretty decent for the Bombers playoff game on Sunday... mainly clear and afternoon temperatures around -5C. Winds should be fairly light.
ReplyDeleteOnly got down to -18C and temp already rises. No record tonight. At least we got one out of it.
DeleteHow much snow could we get tomorrow?
Not much.. maybe 2-4 cm, but you won't be able to tell since it will be blowing and drifting so much. Most of it expected between noon and 9 pm.
DeleteWeather network says 5cm and EC 4-8cm? It’s been increased now?
DeleteI wouldn't focus too much on exact snowfall amounts.. blowing and drifting snow will be the bigger issue with this system. The bulk of the snow is expected between noon and 8 pm with 2-4 cm possible for Winnipeg. We get another shot of snow overnight with another cm or so between midnight and 6 am. 5 cm would be on the high side.. I don't see us getting 8. And again, it will be tough to measure accurately anyways due to the wind today.. a lot of the snow will be blowing and drifting so some spots will be bare, other areas will see deeper drifts.
DeleteI think we got more than expected rob. What are your totals?
DeleteI measured about 2.5 cm at my place in non drifted areas.. but as I've been stressing, very tough to measure accurately given our winds today. Lots of bare patches to 5 cm in deeper drifts. Big story today wasn't the amounts, but the blowing and drifting snow this afternoon.. blizzard like conditions at some points! Poor driving conditions that seriously impacted the commute home.. traffic was at a crawl this afternoon. Snow has tapered off this evening, but another round of snow expected between midnight and 6 am with another 1-3 cm possible. Winds however won't be as strong with this next batch, so blowing and drifting won't be as much an issue.
DeleteIt certainly felt like a blizzard out there!
DeleteThat is good news for the game Rob
ReplyDeleteRob, have the models backed off on next weeks warmup? Seems we only get above freezing on Tuesday and then back below again
ReplyDeletePicked up another 2.5 cm overnight, for a storm total of 5 cm. 3.6 mm water equivalent. Tough to measure accurately due to drifting, snowdepth up to 9 cm from 7 cm yesterday morning.
ReplyDeleteThanks. I was right about the 5cm!!
DeleteWhy is our snowdepth lower when we’ve had over 15cm this month?
Snowdepth goes down over time due to settling, compaction, sublimation, and wind.. even without melting. It doesn’t stay at what the total snowfall is..
DeleteBy the way, I seem to be having issues with my Rob’s Obs website not updating my current weather station data. It should be showing updated data every 5 minutes, but lately it seems to be stuck on old cached data from when you first call up the site. Seems to be an issue with my website and newest OS updates (like iOS 11 for example) Works OK on older devices or browsers. Likely an issue with my site and JavaScript coding (which is old). Just letting you know that I’m aware of the issue and am looking at solutions to address it.
ReplyDeleteYeah that’s the issue I was telling you had been happening to me for the last while. Thanks for looking into it!
DeleteWe already have more snow than last November
ReplyDelete