 |
Forecast map valid midnight Tuesday shows strong winter storm system near
Thunder Bay with strong winds and snow on backside of system. Low will
track from South Dakota and increase in intensity as it heads northeast |
A storm system tracking across South Dakota tonight will move into Minnesota Monday and intensify as it heads into NW Ontario Monday night into Tuesday. This system is expected to bring snow to southern MB Monday, with the highest amounts expected near the Ontario border where 10-15 cm is expected by Tuesday morning. For Winnipeg and the RRV, 5 cm is expected with up to 10 cm for eastern and southern areas (Steinbach, Emerson, etc) However, northerly winds are expected to increase Monday afternoon into Monday night which will lead to deteriorating conditions due to blowing and drifting snow with poor visibilities. Temperatures will also be falling into the minus teens Monday night with little recovery Tuesday. Cold weather is expected for the rest of the week before some moderation by week's end. So be prepared for a return to winterlike conditions for the new work week after a pleasant weekend and mild end to November.
Snow continues over southern MB this morning, with the bulk of the heaviest snow staying to the south and east of Winnipeg. Total snowfall for us should be on the light side.. perhaps 2-5 cm, but increasing winds today into tonight will give more widespread blowing and drifting snow, which will lead to poor travel conditions through the RRV. Worst of storm to impact SE MB into NW Ontario (and nrn Minnesota) through tonight.
ReplyDeleteEnvironment Canada has 2-4 cm in the forecast both tonight and tomorrow. Do you consider that to be likely, or is that a bit *optimistic*?
ReplyDeleteI think that's overdone.. bulk of snow is already pulling off to our southeast today, so we should be left with only flurries this afternoon. I don't think we'll see much more than what we got this morning. Winds will be picking up though, so blowing and drifting snow will be more of an issue this afternoon into tonight.
DeleteWestern edge of snow shield is pushing through west Winnipeg as of 130 pm.. so snow should be tapering off across the city from west to east this afternoon. I've had about 3 cm so far.. so in general, about 3-5 cm across the city by the time it tapers off by evening. Again, I don't see much additional accumulation tonight or Tuesday.. but blowing and drifting will be more of an issue as winds pick up.
DeleteYeah, I had similar accumulations, 20km northeast of Winnipeg. It is snowing lightly now, but I don't see it going anywhere. And it is windy. Hopefully visibility and such improves by morning.
DeleteThanks Rob for the info and updates. You're extremely helpful and most appreciated!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the kind words Mark. Glad you find this info helpful!
DeletePicked up about 2.5 cm at my place today.. not a lot, but enough to make things slick on the roads. Things turn windy and colder tonight into Tuesday with occasional flurries but not much additional accumulation. We stay generally dry the rest of the week with below normal temps before a nice, albeit brief, recovery to above normal temperatures by next weekend. Back to below normal again next week.
ReplyDeleteAnother clipper on the way for tonight. This one is coming from northern Alberta and will track southeastward across southern Manitoba tonight spreading an area of snow into the RRV by 6 pm this evening. Snow will be spreading in from the northwest later today, starting out in Dauphin/Swan River areas by mid to late afternoon. Snow will increase over us through the evening before tapering off overnight. Amounts should total in the 4-8 cm range, with a general 5 cm for most areas from Dauphin across the nrn RRV (inc Winnipeg) into SE MB. Snowfall will be light across SW MB where there's a risk of some ice pellets or freezing rain west of the RRV later today. Temps will be mildest over far SW MB which will tap into mild air over western Canada.. so highs will be above freezing today over the SW corner of the province. (Melita, Virden, etc) Winds shift into the north behind this clipper overnight into Monday, so we get colder again with brisk winds and falling temps during the day. Monday morning drive will be a little slippery due to overnight snowfall and brisk winds.. so give yourself some extra time to start the day.
ReplyDeleteForecast low of -18C for Winnipeg tonight, but that will be reached this evening with temperatures rising overnight as clouds move in from the west and winds become southerly overnight. Temps will likely climb to around -10C by morning. Surprised abnormal trend isn't mentioned in the latest Winnipeg forecast (usually is, and even the gridded data table shows this moderating trend overnight) Could see a band of snow moving in by early morning with a dusting to 1 cm possible through the morning rush hour.
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteAnother system moving in on Friday?
Yes, another clipper moving into southern MB from the northwest.. much like Sunday night's system. But it may track a bit further west than Sunday's, with more of the snow falling over SW MB. GFS has a track more over the RRV, while Canadian and Euro have it tracking further west. We'll se how models trend in the days ahead..
DeleteLatest models show that clipper Friday into Friday night bringing about 2-5 cm for Winnipeg/RRV with 5-10 cm possible over SW MB. We'll see if model track stays like that or shifts east over the next day or two.
ReplyDeleteRob are you still thinking 2-5 cm for today / overnight ?
ReplyDeleteYes, things still looking on track for 2-5 cm for Winnipeg today through tonight.. likely closer to 2 or 3 cm. A bit more expected in the Dauphin/Riding Mtn area where 4-8 cm is likely.
DeleteEnded up with 3 cm total snowfall at my place yesterday through last night. 1 cm of light fluffy flurries during the day, and then 2 cm of more crystal like fine snow (almost like baking powder) last evening and overnight. Total water equivalent was 2.3 mm, mostly from last night's snow.
DeleteHey Rob, Do you see anything significant in the next 2 weeks?
ReplyDeleteAny chance of a good storm before the end of the year?
Storm wise, not much being indicated on the long range models right now. A couple of clipper systems pass through southern MB next week, but then it gets brutally cold by Christmas through the last week of December with Arctic high pressure. Temps in the -20s and -30s likely. Things can change of course, but right now, no big storms on the horizon.. just trending much colder by the Christmas holidays.
DeleteLooks like the coldest airmass of the season will be flooding into southern MB next weekend, just in time for Christmas. Big outbreak of Arctic air will be plunging across the Prairies by the 24th, with highs only in the -20s and lows in the -30s in southern MB through the Christmas holidays. Windchills likely hitting the -40s at times. Plug in the car type of cold. Moderating a bit after Boxing Day but still cold into early January.
ReplyDelete