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Weather map for noon Wednesday shows southern MB
in cold northerly flow behind an Arctic cold front |
Above normal temperatures will continue across southern Manitoba Tuesday as a southeast flow sends temperatures up to the freezing mark by Tuesday afternoon across the RRV including Winnipeg. The mild weather will persist Tuesday night into early Wednesday before a sharp Arctic cold front pushes through the RRV Wednesday morning, shifting winds into the north and sending temperatures falling through the day. In addition, the cold front will be accompanied by a band of snow as it pushes through, with 1-3 cm possible through midday. The gusty north winds will also lead to blowing and drifting snow especially outside the city, with a period of poor visibilities likely as the band of snow pushes through. Driving conditions will likely become poor for a few hours Wednesday across the RRV so be prepared for a return to wintery conditions if you're out and about. Temperatures near -5C early Wednesday in Winnipeg will plummet to -12C by noon, and -18C by 5 pm, so be prepared for a much colder commute home. Cold but dry weather is expected for the remainder of the week into the weekend.
Looks like models have backed off on the snow with tomorrow's front, with only a few flurries as it passes through tomorrow (maybe even a risk of ice pellets or freezing rain early) There's a better chance of some snow spreading in over the southern RRV mainly south of Winnipeg in the afternoon and evening as a system develops over the Dakotas.. so snow and blowing snow may be more of an issue for southern RRV later tomorrow.
ReplyDeletePicked up 3.6 cm of snow this morning as of 11 am from the clipper system coming through southern MB early today. Snow was light and fluffy.. easy to shovel. Winds picking up from the NW now behind the system, so some drifting and local blowing snow this afternoon as winds whip up that loose powdery snow, especially over the RRV from Portage to Emerson.
ReplyDeleteIs +6 a realistic forecast for Winnipeg on Friday, or are the models overplaying it?
ReplyDeleteThe potential is there for Winnipeg to get to +4 or +5C.. +6C may be a bit of a stretch, but with enough sunshine and a westerly downslope flow.. the airport MAY get close to +6C. The air aloft will be quite warm in the morning with 925 mb temps near +6C. That warm air occludes out by midday, but with 925 mb temps near +2C in the afternoon, the potential is there for Winnipeg to get to +5C or so with our snowcover. Without snowcover, we'd easily hit +8 or +9C in that setup. It'll be interesting to see how warm it gets in the usual downslope areas like McCreary and Morden Friday morning.. I bet they hit +8C or so.
DeleteBy the way , record high for Friday (19th) in Winnipeg is 5.6C in 1900 and 1908.
Based on latest guidance, I'll go with Winnipeg airport hitting +4C Friday.. +5C at the Forks.
DeleteCuriously, the forecast high for Morden region tomorrow (+4C) is lower than Winnipeg (+6C). Not likely. I bet Morden sees +8C tomorrow..
DeleteLooking at the progged soundings for tonight and Friday, McCreary has the potential to hit +10C overnight once those downslope winds kick in off the Riding Mtns. Some very warm air aloft moving in overnight (+10C at 900 mb) which will be able to mix down to the surface once the gusty downslope winds develop there (up to 70 km/h possible)
DeleteUpdated forecast highs for Friday now say +5C for Winnipeg, +7C for Morden and Portage, +8C for McCreary. More reasonable numbers.
DeleteSurprised no snow with this warmup.
ReplyDeleteMax of +4.1C at Winnipeg airport today, and 4.7C at the Forks. Not quite a record for the day.. but nice for Jan 19! Manitoba hot spot today was Morden at 6.6C, not quite as warm as I was expecting with those downslope winds.
ReplyDeleteIt's too bad Wpg didn't hit this high yesterday. It would have easily broken the Jan. 18 record.
DeleteMax +4 at my place east of Lorette yesterday. Noticed lots of black earth showing on the farm fields and I have bare spots in my yard. Where's the snow?
DeleteSnow next week!!!!
ReplyDeleteRob, do you think the snow foretasted for tomorrow will materialize to anything?
ReplyDeleteDoesn’t look like much.. maybe a dusting to 1 cm Friday in Winnipeg. Bulk of snow expected through interlake into central MB. Winnipeg may see 1-2 cm of snow with the cold front Saturday morning.
DeleteRob, there are hints of perhaps the 1st real major storm of the season for Winnipeg and southern Manitoba monday night and Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on this?
How about Tuesday?Looks promising!!
ReplyDeleteSorry folks.. was away on holidays this past week in tropical Cancun. I’ll have an update on Tuesday’s system this morning.
ReplyDeleteI hope you had a great vacation! But l am happy you came back !
ReplyDeleteIntense clipper system will be tracking across Manitoba Tuesday bringing strong winds and snow to much of the province. Here in Winnipeg and the Red River valley, winds will be the main story rather than snowfall Tuesday, especially through the midday and afternoon hours when southerly winds will be howling up the valley gusting to 70 or even 80 km/h. These winds, combined with loose and falling snow, will lead to widespread blowing and drifting snow with poor to blizzard-like conditions in the open country. Keep this in mind if you plan on being on the roads tomorrow. Snowfall amounts with this system will be highest over the Interlake and central MB, where 10-20 cm of snow is possible.. while amounts here in Winnipeg and the RRV will be in the 5 cm range. Snowfall amounts however will be impossible to measure accurately as winds will be so strong here in the RRV, with extensive drifting. Winds shift into the NW behind the system by Tuesday evening, with gusts of 60-70 kmh at times bringing colder temperatures for the rest of the week. Get ready for a wintery blast!
ReplyDelete