Monday, January 08, 2018

One more mild day Tuesday, then colder weather pushes in Wednesday with gusty winds and some snow


Weather map for noon Wednesday shows southern  MB
in cold northerly flow behind an Arctic cold front 
Above normal temperatures will continue across southern Manitoba Tuesday as a southeast flow sends temperatures up to the freezing mark by Tuesday afternoon across the RRV including Winnipeg. The mild weather will persist Tuesday night into early Wednesday before a sharp Arctic cold front pushes through the RRV Wednesday morning, shifting winds into the north and sending temperatures falling through the day. In addition, the cold front will be accompanied by a band of snow as it pushes through, with 1-3 cm possible through midday. The gusty north winds will also lead to blowing and drifting snow especially outside the city, with a period of poor visibilities likely as the band of snow pushes through. Driving conditions will likely become poor for a few hours Wednesday across the RRV so be prepared for a return to wintery conditions if you're out and about. Temperatures near -5C early Wednesday in Winnipeg will plummet to -12C by noon, and -18C by 5 pm, so be prepared for a much colder commute home.  Cold but dry weather is expected for the remainder of the week into the weekend. 

8 comments:

  1. Looks like models have backed off on the snow with tomorrow's front, with only a few flurries as it passes through tomorrow (maybe even a risk of ice pellets or freezing rain early) There's a better chance of some snow spreading in over the southern RRV mainly south of Winnipeg in the afternoon and evening as a system develops over the Dakotas.. so snow and blowing snow may be more of an issue for southern RRV later tomorrow.

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  2. Picked up 3.6 cm of snow this morning as of 11 am from the clipper system coming through southern MB early today. Snow was light and fluffy.. easy to shovel. Winds picking up from the NW now behind the system, so some drifting and local blowing snow this afternoon as winds whip up that loose powdery snow, especially over the RRV from Portage to Emerson.

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  3. Is +6 a realistic forecast for Winnipeg on Friday, or are the models overplaying it?

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    1. The potential is there for Winnipeg to get to +4 or +5C.. +6C may be a bit of a stretch, but with enough sunshine and a westerly downslope flow.. the airport MAY get close to +6C. The air aloft will be quite warm in the morning with 925 mb temps near +6C. That warm air occludes out by midday, but with 925 mb temps near +2C in the afternoon, the potential is there for Winnipeg to get to +5C or so with our snowcover. Without snowcover, we'd easily hit +8 or +9C in that setup. It'll be interesting to see how warm it gets in the usual downslope areas like McCreary and Morden Friday morning.. I bet they hit +8C or so.

      By the way , record high for Friday (19th) in Winnipeg is 5.6C in 1900 and 1908.

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    2. Based on latest guidance, I'll go with Winnipeg airport hitting +4C Friday.. +5C at the Forks.

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    3. Curiously, the forecast high for Morden region tomorrow (+4C) is lower than Winnipeg (+6C). Not likely. I bet Morden sees +8C tomorrow..

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    4. Looking at the progged soundings for tonight and Friday, McCreary has the potential to hit +10C overnight once those downslope winds kick in off the Riding Mtns. Some very warm air aloft moving in overnight (+10C at 900 mb) which will be able to mix down to the surface once the gusty downslope winds develop there (up to 70 km/h possible)

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  4. Surprised no snow with this warmup.

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