It's been a long tough winter in southern Manitoba, but springlike weather is finally returning this week as temperatures rise well above freezing for the next 7 days at least. The stubborn source of Arctic air that has persisted over central Canada for the last 4 months is finally showing signs of retreating back north, which will allow more seasonable temperatures to spread across southern Manitoba this week. Normal highs are now +7C in Winnipeg, as we enter the climatogical period when snow cover has normally disappeared in the Red River valley. This of course is not the case this year as snowdepths of 25-50 cm are still prevalent across much of the northern valley, including Winnipeg (officially 40 cm at my place as of this morning) However, the upcoming spell of mild temperatures will make a big dent in the snowpack by the end of the week, and it's likely some parts of the Red River valley will be snowfree by next weekend. The big melt this year is coming 2-3 weeks earlier than last year when the snowpack didn't disappear until April 27th in Winnipeg, thanks to prolonged cold weather that didn't see temperatures rise above +5C at Winnipeg airport until April 24th, the latest date on record. The good news with this week's big melt is that no significant precipitation is expected until at least next weekend, which will ease major flooding concerns. Nonetheless, the rapid melt this week will likely result in ponding of water in poor drainage areas as well as rising water levels in ditches.
Update on March stats: March finished with an average temperature of -12.7C in Winnipeg, the 19th coldest March on record, and the coldest March since 1996 (-13.0C) The month averaged almost 7C below the 1981-2010 March average of -5.8C. This made the 4 month period of December-March the coldest such period in Winnipeg since the winter of 1898-99 with an average temperature of -18.4C (tied with 1898-99) During that 4 month period, Winnipeg saw 90 days with temperatures of -20C or lower.. the 6th most since 1872. For more details, see Winnipeg weather blog post on this year's harsh winter.
Hi Rob. Do you think that 14C on Wednesday for Winnipeg is a longshot?? Regardless, this upcoming week, really does look like a beauty!!
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. I don't think the airport will hit 14C, but it's possible over parts of the city where there's less snowcover. The warm day Wednesday will be courtesy of a clipper system passing by to our north, drawing a westerly flow of warmer air from southern Saskatchewan that will be giving temperatures in the mid to upper teens over snowfree areas there Tuesday. We'll be getting a taste of that Wednesday, but it will be tough for the airport to climb to 14C with the deep snowpack. I'm thinking more like 10C which is still very nice! 15C more likely over southwest MB and SW RRV where snowcover is almost gone.. (eg. Melita to Morden areas) as well as some forested areas.
ReplyDeleteDouble digit temps today from Melita to Morden with highs of +10-12C. Also hit +10C in the trees east of here in Pinawa and Sprague. The springlike weather will continue this week, especially Wednesday with widespread double digit highs likely..
ReplyDeleteBut I'm not liking what the Euro and GFS are showing for next week. Back to abnormal cold again. Sure hope they're overdoing it.. or it's brief..
Was searching for your stats that show when we are typically snow free and was able to dig it up for anyone who is interested in seeing it. It goes up to 2003 is there any data to extrapolate for the next 10 years?
ReplyDeletehttp://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=&StationID=43185&dlyRange=2004-10-26%7C2014-04-05&Year=2005&Month=4&cmdB1=Go#
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg Charleswood 2 provides snow on ground data starting in October 2004 up to present.
As anonymous noted, snowfall data from my site (Charleswood 2) is available online since Oct 2004.
ReplyDeleteMonthly summaries from my station are also available on my stats page at..
http://members.shaw.ca/wpgwx/robsobs/datapage.htm#summaries
For the record, here are the dates since 2003 that snowcover went to "trace" or zero at my location..
2013 ..... Apr 27
2012 ..... Mar 14
2011 ..... Apr 6
2010 ..... Mar 15
2009 ..... Apr 13
2008 ..... Apr 4
2007 ..... Mar 28
2006 ..... Apr 4
2005 ..... Apr 4
2004 ..... Apr 5
2003 ..... Mar 22
Based on this year's snowdepth and current forecasts, I expect we should be losing our snowcover within a week or so.. (although I suspect we'll still have snowbanks to contend with for a bit longer)
Some very warm air to our south on Wednesday. Fargo has a forecast high of 25C!!
ReplyDeleteYes indeed. Wednesday certainly looking like a warm one even across parts of southern MB, especially snowfree areas over SW RRV into SW MB where afternoon temperatures may approach the 20C mark. Grand Forks calling for a high of 21C Wednesday while Fargo, as noted, is 25c! Snowcover will keep things a bit more chilled for Winnipeg and northern RRV, with highs of 10-14C likely, including Winnipeg. That warm spell will be a one day event however as things cool off for Thursday. Still, it's nice to see these warm airmasses coming in a lot earlier than last year's horrible April.
ReplyDeleteEuro has also backed off on that major cooldown next week.. still below normal, but not as much.
Rob, i've heard that we may see a warmer than normal late April after the snowcover is gone.
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on this?
Rob, still looking like at least 8-10 C for both Thursday & Friday which is stil very nice for early April. Long range does show a cool down late this wkd into early next week for a few days nothing crazy though, & showing a nice warm up again (Double Digits) by Easter Weekend. I think we are finally turning the corner!
ReplyDeleteStorm Predication Center has issued a " see text " for the risk of a few isolated thunderstorms in North Dakota tomorrow. Southern Manitoba could see a few storm cells as the cold front swings through!!
ReplyDeleteRob, could Winnipeg see it's first thundershower of the season tomorrow??
ReplyDeleteEnergy looks weak for any thunderstorms here in Winnipeg this afternoon.. perhaps further south where it will be warmer. Even there, we're only talking about weak instability, although dynamics should be fairly good.
ReplyDeleteSnowdepth is down to 24 cm at my place this morning, a drop of 6 cm since yesterday. Should see another nice drop today with the mild temps and wind.
ReplyDeleteHopefully that snow for Saturday doesn't materialize. Canadian GDPS model giving Winnipeg around 10 cm of wet snow Saturday as low pressure area tracks across central plains with an inverted trof into southern MB, while colder air pushes in from the north. Euro has more of a mix as temps stay near or just above freezing while GFS has main precip just to our south. Hopefully temps will be warm enough that much of the snow melts as it falls.
MB highways has added 8 new highway webcams in southern and central MB on their website. I've updated my webcam page to include those images.. nice way to track weather across the province. The new sites include 3 webcams along the TransCanada Hwy (at Oakville, Austin and Kirkella), Hwy 75 (St Agathe and near Letellier), 2 or 3 in SW MB and one on Hwy 6 way up in the northern Interlake south of Grand Rapids (at Devils Lake).
ReplyDeleteHow do I access your webcam page? When I click on your name it comes back saying profile not available.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Anonymous...
ReplyDeleteMy webcam page is accessible through my main Rob's Obs website (www.robsobs.ca) Click on the webcam image on the main page..
Direct link is..
http://members.shaw.ca/wpgwx/robsobs/ywgcams.htm
Hope that helps!
Warming up nicely in parts of southern MB. Already 13C at McCreary as of 10 am, 12C in Deerwood (Miami)and Morden. +5C at YWG airport which has very little snow on the ground now, (although surrounding fields are still cocvered) I think YWG airport should be able to hit 10-12C today once our winds shift into the west this afternoon before cooling off by evening.
ReplyDeleteThanks Rob. Works great!!
ReplyDeleteWinds will be shifting into the west by 4 pm in Winnipeg, at which time we may briefly pop into the low double digits before the cold advection kicks in and our temperatures start falling. Note the wedge of 10-13C temps to our west (including 13C in Portage) which we'll tap as our winds swing west. Morden has hit 17C this afternoon for the provincial and Canadian hot spot so far today.
ReplyDeleteThose westerly winds could be quite gusty with 40-50 kt low level winds resulting in gusts of 70-80 km/h at the surface later this afternoon into early evening.
Rob, Parts of the city have already reached double digits especially in the south-end.
ReplyDeleteRob, what's the reason as to why we here in Winnipeg have much more snow still remaining compared to most other areas of Southern Manitoba?
ReplyDeleteThanks, Anon
>> Anonymous said... Rob, what's the reason as to why we here in Winnipeg have much more snow still remaining compared to most other areas of Southern Manitoba?
ReplyDeleteUsually, snowcover disappears more quickly over the southwest RRV (Morden area)due to warming effects of downslope winds off the Pembina escarpment. That tends to melt snowcover quite a bit faster in that area. In addition, we've had more snow here in Winnipeg and the northern RRV than areas further southwest. Lastly, snowcover tends to recede from SW MB to the NE based on climatology since warmer air in the spring tends to arrive from the southwest.
Thanks Rob for the webcam info on Mb's Road info page and the linx. Nice touch that they now can be accessed by all Apple OS.
ReplyDeleteWell we're doing much better than last year. Hitting +5 and double digit temps weeks earlier this year. Ironic considering coming off a harsh winter. But I don't like the look of the euro model painting some pretty cold temps for next week with overnight lows at -20. Ensembles show it warming up considerably for the Easter weekend while the euro shows it being much colder.
ReplyDeleteHere's today's snow melt in 2.5s from my front door in Westwood if anyone is interested :) http://imgur.com/7bb74hF
ReplyDeleteLost quite a bit of snow cover over the past 24 hours... Down to a rough average of 14 cm at my place this morning, but it's quite variable between bare areas and deeper drifts. Winnipeg airport is actually indicating no snow on the ground from their automated snow sensor, which seems reasonable as wide open fields are actually pretty much bare now in the city.
ReplyDeleteRob, what are your thoughts on that - 8 C forecast high for Monday?
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said...Rob, what are your thoughts on that - 8 C forecast high for Monday?
ReplyDeleteMonday is looking cold with highs below freezing.. but -8C seems a bit on the cold side, especially given our recent snow melt. The wild card is what will happen with Saturday's system and how much snow we get from it. Right now, models are trending towards a snow event (possibly mixed with rain at first Friday night) but still a lot of uncertainty as to amounts. If we get a decent snow cover (10 cm or so), then that could give us those colder temps for Monday. All in all, looks like a taste of winter coming up this weekend into early next week. (let's hope that's the last of it!)
By the way, apologies for the lag in posting user comments. I'm supposed to get them via email to moderate before posting, but they have't been getting through for some reason. I can still access them through the blog, but I may not access them as quickly. So keep posting comments, I should get them up eventually! :)
ReplyDeleteRob, are there any signs of us breaking out of this seemingly endless below normal pattern at some point over the next few weeks?
ReplyDelete>> Anonymous said...Rob, are there any signs of us breaking out of this seemingly endless below normal pattern at some point over the next few weeks?
ReplyDeleteReally tough to say.. but I'm cautiously optimistic that things will be getting back to more normal conditions this month into May. Losing our snowcover is a big step towards getting back to normal.. and at some point, the atmosphere has to reset from an abnormally long pattern of persistently below or above normal temperatures.
For what it's worth at this point, most long range forecasts are showing a return to at least seasonal temps ,perhaps above even later next week/weekend into the following week after this 3-4 day setback.
ReplyDelete