Spinglike weather finally made an appearance over southern MB this week with the first double digit temperatures of the season in Winnipeg Wednesday (high of +10.4C), and almost 20C temperatures over the southwest RRV (19.3C in snowfree Morden) The mild temperatures have made a significant dent in the snowpack across southern MB, with most areas west of the Red River valley and south of the TransCanada now snow free. Here in Winnipeg, snowdepth at my location has dropped to 14 cm this morning after being at 40 cm just last weekend. Snowcover should continue to go down over the next couple of days as daytime temperatures remain above freezing.
But don't put away the snowshovels and boots just yet! Believe it or not, indications are that Winnipeg and much of southern MB will be seeing more of the white stuff this weekend, especially Saturday as a couple of disturbances track across the southern Prairies, while colder air flows in from the north. The first wave of snow is expected to spread over SW MB and along the US border Friday night into early Saturday, before another disturbance from central Saskatchewan brings a second wave of snow across the western Parklands into the Red River valley through Saturday, including Winnipeg. There is still a lot of uncertainty about how much snow will fall with these systems due to temperatures hovering near the freezing mark, but it's possible Winnipeg and the RRV could see 5-10 cm of snow Saturday, while some higher elevations of western MB may see 15 cm of snow or more. Colder air will follow in the wake of these systems with daytime highs remaining below freezing early next week, well below normal for this time of year (normal highs now +9c). Temperatures are expected to moderate by the end of next week with near normal temperatures again by next weekend. Until then, get ready for another taste of winter.. hopefully the last parting shot of the season!
Models are trending colder with this upcoming system Saturday, so it looks like precip will be in the form of snow for southern MB, including Winnipeg. Latest timing is for snow to develop Friday night in Winnipeg and continue into Saturday morning before tapering off. Amounts still tough to say based on possible melting initially with near freezing temperatures, but 5-10 cm not out of the question for Winnipeg and much of the RRV, with local amounts of 10-15 cm possible. Expect a few profanity laced tweets Saturday morning when people look out the window!
ReplyDeleteSpecial weather statement issued for Winnipeg and RRV. Snowfall warnings out in western Manitoba.
ReplyDeleteIt was so nice to see some grass for all of a few days....
Looks like snow will be spreading into western MB tonight reaching Winnipeg/RRV overnight/early Saturday. Snow will continue much of Saturday, possibly moderate to heavy at times Saturday morning through midday before tapering off in the afternoon/evening. 5-10 cm still looks like a reasonable estimate for the city.. but with daytime temperatures near freezing, there should be lots of melting/slush on roads, but 10 cm possible on ground/frozen surfaces. Heaviest snowfall amounts still expected mainly west and NW of Portage La Prairie where elevation will allow for heavier accumulations.. 10-15 cm or more possible.
ReplyDeleteThe snow is bad enough.. but the cold weather behind it will not be welcome at all. We'll have at least 3 or 4 days of sub-freezing weather, with highs staying below freezing and lows of -15C or lower possible some mornings. Not nice. Snow in April I can handle if it melts right away.. but getting another prolonged spell of sub-freezing weather will be tough to accept, especially after this past week of springlike weather.
Latest model runs this morning are bringing in some warmer air tomorrow as SK low remains a bit deeper and tracks further north through the interlake. This results in a feed of slightly warmer air over southern MB which would cut down on snowfall amounts for Winnipeg and RRV as temps rise to above freezing while axis of heavier snow shifts further north. Hopefully this is the case, and we get more of a sloppy mix of wet snow and rain here tomorrow instead of all snow.
ReplyDeleteStill a lot of uncertainty, as only a 1-2C change in temperature can mean the difference between all snow or rain.
Click on this link to see what a May 11 snowstorm looks like in Winnipeg. Bring back memories Winnipeg ??
ReplyDeletehttp://www.umanitoba.ca/environment/envirogeog/weather/may2004/may04pics.html
Tricky forecast for Winnipeg Saturday as models have been flip flopping with how close rain/snow line comes to city. Looks like areas south of city will see snow mixing or changing to rain by midday, while areas north of the city will stay as all snow. Question is, what will happen in Winnipeg?
ReplyDeleteMy best guess is that snow will spread into Winnipeg between 7-10 am, becoming heavy at times between 10 am and 2 pm before tapering off to light drizzle or wet flurries after 2 pm. We could see a quick burst of 5-8 cm of heavy snow between 10 am and 2 pm before main precip area moves east and temp rises to plus 1 in the afternoon. That should result in melting and compacting of the day's snowfall leaving a slushy sloppy layer of wet snow by afternoon. That all freezes up Saturday night into Sunday as temperatures fall well below freezing. I'll try to fine tune the forecast with tonight's model runs and radar trends..
Rob, i'm hearing rumblings that a more significant warmup could be on tap for the Easter long weekend.
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on this?
Snow is spreading into areas just west of Portage La Prairie as of 7 am.. MB highway webcams show snow covered roads in Austin, Souris, west to SK border. Snow still on track to arrive in Winnipeg by mid morning, with 5 cm or so possible through midday into afternoon. Hopefully we get mild enough that much of it will melt as it falls..
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