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RDPS model valid Monday evening
showing large winter storm system
grazing southern Manitoba |
The never ending winter of 2013-14 is set to close out March with a bang as a major winter storm develops over the central US later this weekend, bringing heavy snow and strong winds to the Dakotas and northern Minnesota by Monday. The bulk of the heaviest snow with this storm is expected to fall mainly south and east of Manitoba, however the southern Red River Valley and SE Manitoba will likely get snow from this system along with strong winds and blowing snow. This would include Emerson, Steinbach and areas close to the Ontario border. Current indications are that Winnipeg will be on the northern edge of this large storm system, but some snow is also possible here Monday along with cold northerly winds. Note that Winnipeg will see worse conditions if the storm tracks further north, so it's important to keep updated on the progress of this storm as it develops over the next day or two.
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Blizzard watches (light green) and
winter storm watches (blue) are in
effect south of the US border |
This storm has the potential to be a major snow producer over the Red River valley of North Dakota with amounts of 20-30 cm possible Sunday night into Monday night. In addition, strong northerly winds will cause extensive blowing and drifting snow with blizzard conditions likely over much of eastern North Dakota. In fact, a
blizzard watch has been issued for much of eastern North and South Dakota from late Sunday through Monday night. Travellers should be prepared for poor driving conditions and possible road closures south of the border with this storm. This storm will also impact NW Ontario Monday into Tuesday as it heads east, so be prepared for poor travelling conditions if you're heading into northwest Ontario early next week.
Projected snowfall amounts (inches) from WPC/NOAA. Map shows swath of heaviest snow setting up between Grand Forks and Fargo through northern Minnesota into NW Ontario where 20-30 cm is possible Sunday night into Monday night
Winds are still howling out there tonight. 73km/h gusts at the Winnipeg airport last check!!
ReplyDeleteLooks like Winnipeg COULD see some big effects from this storm. Winter storm watch in effect!!
ReplyDeleteWinter storm watches now in effect for all of RRV and SE MB for Monday, including Winnipeg. Amazing how a system that models had passing well to our south just a day or so ago is now a major threat for southern MB. Euro has been the best model at catching this more northely track, while NAM has been the furthest south. Canadian RDPS model from 06Z is now going all out for Winnipeg showing 15-20 cm Monday, while most other models show us on the northern edge of the heaviest snow.. with more like 5-10 cm for us, and 20-30 cm south and east of the city towards the US and Ont borders. Whatever the case, a wild end to March coming up!
ReplyDeleteIt's fun to look at the HPC snow map for an event like this.
ReplyDeleteBetter than 50/50 odds for a foot of snow in Grand Forks and Fargo when it's all said and done, and a slim but not out of the question (10-20%) crack at 2 feet for Fargo.
Seriously? I am so sick of this.
ReplyDeleteMeh it's April people it'll all melt soon enough so don't fret! It's the cold I don't like
ReplyDeleteAt least we're not alone in our suffering. The Maritimes are getting yet another major snow storm as well.
ReplyDelete-Garth
I want spring to come as much as anyone else, but Winnipeg always misses on these big storms. I actually wouldn't mind experiencing this one... Definitely more interesting than all the darn clippers this winter.
ReplyDeleteEnvironment Canada is only forecasting 2-4 cm now.
ReplyDeleteBlizzard warning has been issued for RRV south of Winnipeg for Monday.. with winter storm and snowfall warnings towards Ontario border. Winter storm watch has been ended for Winnipeg with worst of storm expected just to our south and east. But we will still see some snow and blowing snow out of this.. perhaps 5 cm.. with blustery cold north winds. Axis of heaviest snow won't be too far away, so conditions will quickly get worse for anyone travelling south and east of the city Monday.
ReplyDeleteAh yes, perhaps an element of surprise setting up here for us in the city. We have seen this before especially this winter with that famous 2-4 CM forecasted snowfall turns into a 10 CM event or more.
ReplyDeleteEither way, winter still does not want to go away. Also noticed that the advertised warmup for this week has been pushed back and is not likely to be a trend towards a pattern change according to latest long range model runs.
>>Anonymous said... Ah yes, perhaps an element of surprise setting up here for us in the city. We have seen this before especially this winter with that famous 2-4 CM forecasted snowfall turns into a 10 CM event or more.
ReplyDeleteVery true. Often what happens with these big storms is that the snow piles up along the northern edge of the system along a deformation axis, with very little falling north of this zone. If that deformation axis edges slightly north, it could be the difference between 5 cm and 15 cm for areas along that northern edge.
Models have been fairly consistent in having that deformation axis set up to the south and east of Winnipeg maintaining the heaviest snow over SE MB.. but we'll have to watch radar carefully over the next 24 hours to see where it's actually setting up. I'm cautiously optimistic the heaviest snow will fall southeast of Winnipeg based on fairly good model consensus now.
So many times, we have missed out on these Colorado Lows, no surprise if this one misses as well.
ReplyDeleteRob, what's the latest on that warmup for later this week? is it still in the works for us and could it be a sign of a pattern change perhaps?
ReplyDeleteThe 12z GFS just came out and it is still showing that North Dakota and extreme southeastern Manitoba getting the worst of the storm. A very major storm indeed!!
ReplyDeleteYeah, definetly a major storm, Anon.
ReplyDeletecheckout this map: http://a.disquscdn.com/uploads/mediaembed/images/922/317/original.jpg
It shows up to 40 inches in parts of ND and Minnesota!!!I don't think i've ever seen a Colorado low bringTHAT much snow!!! Crazy Crazy Crazy stuff!!
Todd.. The yellow values are cm, so the 40 refers to 40 cm or 16 inches. Still a good dump! NWS GFK saying up to 2 feet possible within that main axis!
ReplyDeleteWhy do we always get to miss out on the best storms?
ReplyDeleteSorry for the mistake, Rob. I am SO jealous of those people in that area. Seems like we can never get a good 30+ dumping round here. When was the last time that happened, end of December 2006? And what kind of storm was that?
ReplyDeleteRob, do you know why we barely gat any big dumping in souther MB? Is it becuase the biggest storms like colorado lows usually go south and east of hear?
Thanks, Todd
Todd, I can understand your love for big storms, but seriously this is not the year to be hoping for something like this after this winter we've had, give your head a shake!
ReplyDeleteThats where I'm coming from at too. As much as we all want winter to go away when was the last time we had a REAL storm give us some of those juicy amounts that places not too far away are about to get? If it was 2006 then thats 8 years! We've been in such a slump over the last few years for both snow storms and thunder storms, with these systems often just missing us. We were even teased with a winter storm watch this morning, which they've abruptly retracted (I've never seen a winter storm watch issued and then removed that quickly). I'm just hoping to high heavens that this isn't a repetitive pattern for the summer storm season cause this is getting really old and annoying for someone who just wants a good storm
ReplyDeleteAnd who cares if we get lots of snow because its all gonna melt soon anyways. April is here its not like its the middle of winter. Its the cold that has been ticking people off I think. Most people want no storm to come but some do. Nobody has to give their head a shake. Some just like extreme weather and storms, no matter what the seasons been like. And since they are so often far and few between (take a look at when the last 30+ cm storm was) why knock something that someone loves that hardly EVER happens when you'll be back to your warmth and sunshine in no time, and most of the time?
ReplyDeleteI agree with you, Anon. My question is just what cuased this huge break from thunderstorms. Would it have anything to do with climate change?
ReplyDeleteI love the snow, but i hate the cold. Thats my opinion though, and i think most people in winnipeg would say they hate both. but when you think about it, winnipeg dose'nt really get all that snow compared to some areas. Its just that here, it stays for so long, and it seems we always get it from those boring alberta clippers. I would much prefer a place like the maritimes (for winter); they get warm winters (at least compared to here, if you asked someone who lives there, they'd probably say the have "cold" winters, they don't no what they're talking about) and they get GOOD storms. However, you may think Winnipeg has been having few thunderstorms the last few years, but the maritimes get l litterally NO severe thunderstorm, and barely any thunderstorms.
Just wish winnipeg had thunderstorms like they used to, and a winter like the maritimes...
Looking at the NAM runs from yesterday morning to the most recent 18Z run, you can clearly see a trend towards the west, towards Winnipeg, with the heavier snow.
ReplyDeleteIf there is any accuracy in what the NAM is saying and those trendw continue in the 0Z update, I feel Winnipeg will see more (possibly much more?) than the forecasted "2-4 cm."
My call is that EC should have at least kept a winter storm watch up for the winnipeg region.
NWS Grand Forks has upgraded to a blizzard warnings for portions of the state, and are now calling for 10 -20 inches of snow and 50 -60 mp/h wind gusts. WOW!!
ReplyDeleteTemperatures sure have dropped since this afternoon. Downright chilly out there this evening!!
ReplyDeleteRob, with the latest radar trends, are you thinking that this system is starting to take a slightly more northern track ??
ReplyDeleteLatest discussion 1201am puts its solution further North and a little later tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteDoes that imply it will hang around longer, more snow or both?
Apologies but I won't be able to provide updates on the storm tomorrow as I'll be out of town with limited internet capability. Will try to post updates and comments when possible..
ReplyDeleteAs for Winnipeg, guidance is still calling for about 5 cm for the city.. with higher amounts south and east. I'm thinking this still looks reasonable as latest radar is showing heavier snow setting up just south of US border right now, with signs of the deformation axis setting up between Winnipeg and Steinbach (which would mark northern edge of heavier snow) We'll see how it looks tomorrow morning, but at this point, it looks like Winnipeg should escape the worst of it. Should be quite the wallop though towards Emerson and Sprague and into ND, MN and NW Ontario.
This storm is almost identical to the March 22-23rd, 2011 storm to the point where almost the exact same places were impacted with similar conditions, with Winnipeg of course getting teased and screwed at the same time. Except in that storm, Grand Forks was in the position that Winnipeg is in today. One day that spot will be over us and we will finally have our turn. I'm just amazed how this area seems to be impacted over and over again with repeated storms. What makes this spot so popular for storm tracks? Still frustrating being on the edge of the action all the time. The edge is often the most frustrating place to be.
ReplyDeletehttp://robsobsblog.blogspot.ca/2011/03/increasing-threat-of-significant.html
As a woman who shovels her own driveway I am glad this storm missed. Why anyone would wish for more snow after this winter I don't know. Kinda an insult to those who shovel their own.
ReplyDeleteWhy is wanting it to a snow an insult? I shovel my own and I don't mind. To each their own. If people want snow then let then have it. If they don't want it then let it not happen. Nobody is insulting anyone so why take it personal anon? Some people just like a bit of wild interesting weather now and then. Seems silly to get all worked up over someone who wants it. Unfortunately a passion for extreme weather seems to strike a nerve with people, like its our fault if it inconveniences someone :p
ReplyDeleteI like extreme weather like the best of them, but enough Spring snow. Bring on the thunderstorms!
ReplyDeleteA good 5cm of fresh snow in South St-Vital. :(
ReplyDeleteAre you updating your RobsObs webpage? There's no monthly data for February or March - why not?
ReplyDeleteI notice that the TWN has updated (todays)road conditions for #75 from Wpg @ 748am but the province has "Bare and wet" not updated since 13:28 yesterday.
ReplyDeleteDoes that mean TWN cares more or that the province is too busy with the ice covered roads?
Where does TWN info come from?
Anonymous ... Feb and Mar monthly stats will be updated this weekend.
ReplyDeleteFinally some warmer more Spring like weather starting this wkd! Time to say goodbye to the snow & don't come back until at least next Dec.
ReplyDelete