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Water jugs being delivered to Winnipeg homes
affected by frozen water lines. The long cold winter
has resulted in an unprecedented number of homes
being affected. (CBC news image) |
After a record breaking cold start to the month, some warmer weather is finally spreading into southern Manitoba this week, as a milder Pacific flow of air brings above seasonal temperatures across the Prairies. For southern MB this will mean temperatures climbing to and even above the freezing mark much of the week, the first prolonged spell of above normal temperatures here since mid January, and the first spell of above freezing temperatures since November. This will be welcome news to frozen Winnipeggers who are coming off the coldest winter in 35 years that has plagued the city with a growing crisis of frozen water pipes and bursting water mains across the city. The prolonged severe winter has resulted in a much deeper ground frost than normal (
up to 3 metres deep in places!) which is playing havoc with water lines, with news today that up to
5000 properties in the city may be impacted by frozen water lines. The mild weather this week, although favourable, will do little to ease the situation in the short term, as it will take several weeks for the ground to thaw given the frost depth and deep snowpack.
But the mild weather this week will be a welcome sign that spring weather is finally arriving in southern MB, something residents here didn't think would ever happen this year, even as recently as a week ago. Temperatures in Winnipeg will be climbing to the +2 or +3C mark Sunday and an even warmer +4C for Monday as we get a westerly flow of mild air from Western Canada, where temperatures reached the low teens in southern Alberta today including +12C in Calgary. Temperatures will cool off slightly Tuesday and Wednesday before another surge of above freezing temperatures moves in for Thursday. Slightly colder weather is excepted for the weekend into next week with temperatures near or slightly below seasonal values which are now around -3C for daytime highs, and -13C for lows. All in all, a nice stretch of weather coming up this week for winter weary Winnipeggers. Enjoy it.. we deserve it!
Just hoping like hell that the warm weather CONTINUES for once. The past few times "milder" weather was in the forecast, it only lasted less then a week, then right into the "polar vortex" we have been under all winter.
ReplyDeleteYou never know what Mother Nature has to give to us; just becuase the first 2-3 weeks of March look warm doesn't keen the rest of it (and possibly April to) will be brutally cold...
-frank in wildwood
Frank..
ReplyDeleteYes, you're right.. this week's mild stretch of weather doesn't mean winter is over. But by next week, we'll be into the latter half of March, and the threat of really frigid weather (-25C or lower stuff) becomes significantly lower. Crossing my frost-bitten fingers that we're done with the deep Arctic air intrusions for this year (although we'll certainly get stretches of below normal weather through the spring)
Rob, do you think it's safe too say that we won't repeat last year or is too early to say that?
ReplyDeleteI sure hope we don't repeat last year after this horrible winter.
Freezing Drizzle -- a Spring like harbinger
ReplyDeleteHi rob, I want to thank you for all your great work!I have a snow removal business and always rely on your site for any news regarding weather...Greatly appreciated
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. Thanks! Glad you find the info here worthwhile!
ReplyDeleteAmazing warm up in South Dakota today. Rapid City hit a record tying +23C this afternoon, exactly one week after hitting a low of -28C. Philip went from -30C (-23F) last Sunday to 23C (74F) today, an almost 100F change in a week. Now that's a warm up!
ReplyDeleteI love WN long term forecast. 10 cm on the 17th. Boy do I hope they are wrong.
ReplyDeleteIt 17.3C in Penticton, BC yesterday, the warmest temperature recorded in Canada this year.
ReplyDeleteBeautiful spring-like day out there, feeling much warmer than the +2C at YWG airport thanks to sunshine and light winds. Up to +6C at my place in Charleswood.
ReplyDeleteA bit of a roller coaster pattern this week as we cool off tomorrow into Wednesday, then warm up again for Thursday, before cooling off again for the weekend. Thankfully, no major storm systems expected this week, but models are hinting at the potential for a clipper bringing some accumulating snow (possibly 5-10 cm) next Monday-Tuesday time frame (17-18th)
Rob
ReplyDeleteIs that a typo at EC Tomorrows low -25. I hope so.
Daryl.. No, that low of -25C Wednesday morning is not a typo. Models have us bottoming out Tuesday night as an arctic ridge passes through. Most guidance is in the -20 to -23C range.. -25C is the coldest I've seen. But it will be short lived as we quickly recover Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
ReplyDeleteRob Are my calculations correct? We will have a colder march this year than last if the mean for the remaining days of the month is -5. !!!
ReplyDeleteWe thought last spring was cold?
Anonymous..
ReplyDeleteI don't get the same numbers. Last March, we had an average temperature of -10.9C. If we average -5C the rest of this month, we would end up with an average temperature of -8.6C.
Thanks Rob. I was using OBS Stats page Mo. to date and comparing it to Obs March 2013 Summary. 8.5C .
ReplyDeleteRob March MTD at 'A' CS is missing the coldest March day in over 100 years. Makes it difficult to compare but if we substitute any reasonable number we will still be slightly warmer than last year. If we also substitute the next 7 days predicted mean, we would need an epic warm-up to be warmer than last year.
ReplyDeleteEnormous east-west gradient in temperatures across the Prairies. Sunday's high is expected to be +14 in Calgary. Sunday's low is forecast to be -21 in Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteThis resmbles March 1962 Dry fall 61 Lots of snow and Brutally cold start to march with a lamb like last half Melting days and then freezing overnight. Rear ended someone with my new VW at Christmas on that snow and froze on New years eve with that air cooled engine and imaginary cabin heater. Don
ReplyDeleteHey Rob
ReplyDeleteOn one of the other weather blogs their is mention that a GFS model has consistently been calling for a Colorado low coming up soon in the Winnipeg area. There is no other information given. Do you have any comment/opinion in regards to this and when could this possibly happen?
I see the snow is back on for Sunday/Monday. Assuming this is a clipper and not a Colorado low.
ReplyDeleteDaryl.. There's an Alberta clipper tracking through later Sunday which will likely give us some snow later Sunday into Sundya night/early Monday.. perhaps 5 cm or so. I don't see any Colorado low systems until possibly later next week, but there's not a lot of concensus on that at the moment.
ReplyDeleteRob, what are the chances of a repeat of April 2013 this year?
ReplyDeleteBased on past history, it's very likely that April will be below normal... Virtually every April following a very cold winter was below normal in Winnipeg. Now, that doesn't mean it will be as bad as last year, but it does suggest a later than normal snowmelt this spring.. likely mid April to third week or so before the snow is gone, or mostly gone. That's based on past history. Maybe Mother Nature will take pity on us this year and reward us with a nice April. But that would be a major change from tradition for her.
ReplyDeleteTruly remarkable to get two straight years of cold and late springs like this after one of the warmest winters ever just before. I'm looking foreward to a more 'normal' year again! I think what makes it so difficult for many people to accept this cold is the fact that people expect that global warming will mean warmer weather at all times and that we wont have to deal with cold like this anymore. Truth is, we'll likely continue to more frequent dramatic swings between extremes, with a ''normal'' no longer existing.
ReplyDeleteTo those who want spring sooner than later, can I just say this - Due to the HUGE amount of snow received this winter we NEED a cooler than normal April at the very least aka a SLOW melt similar to last spring to prevent flooding. How can people not see this most basic common sense truth.
ReplyDelete-15C in Windsor, Ontario (Canada southernmost city). The record low was -13.9C (1960) so they broke the record.
ReplyDeleteWith the record ice coverage of the Great Lakes, it's going to be a brutal spring in Eastern Canada as well.
Seems like only BC and to some extend Alberta had an above average winter.
Hey Anon,
ReplyDeleteNot my problem if there is a flood.
How many months do we have to go with below normal temperatures and above average precipitation?
Every few years popular new phrases to describe trends appear.
ReplyDeleteWhat phrase do you see replacing global warming, & polar vortex??
>> Anonymous said... To those who want spring sooner than later, can I just say this - Due to the HUGE amount of snow received this winter we NEED a cooler than normal April at the very least aka a SLOW melt similar to last spring to prevent flooding.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. You're correct in that a slow melt is ideal to minimize flooding potential. The good news is that snow cover in North Dakota is actually below normal.. and well below this time last year over much of the state. Latest satellite imagery shows a surprising lack of snow over much of ND, with a lot of bare areas showing up west of the RRV. If we can stay relatively storm free over the next few weeks with minimal precip, that would bode well for our flooding prospects here, despite the abnormally high amounts of snow we have on our side of the border.
That lack of snow cover in ND has allowed Fargo to hit 57F today, its first day of 50F or more this year. Compare that to last year when Fargo didn't hit 50F or more until April 26th, over 6 weeks later than this year! Hopeful sign that spring will perhaps come a little earlier than last year!
ReplyDeleteMoreover, last year we did not get anything over 0 until the end of March. This week would have seemed balmy in 2013.
ReplyDeleterob said... That lack of snow cover in ND has allowed Fargo to hit 57F today, its first day of 50F or more this year. Compare that to last year when Fargo didn't hit 50F or more until April 26th, over 6 weeks later than this year! Hopeful sign that spring will perhaps come a little earlier than last year!
Rob Our solution has arrived. As we enter these sunny days, thousands of Paint it Green Canadian Troops will begin arriving any day now. Honking and Blaring and Painting our snow dark Green . Voila our new green snow will absorb the heat of the sun and, of course,melt so that our army can swim and nest and do whatever else Canada Geese do. Yeah, there goes some now. KEEP GOING
ReplyDeleteCBC must get their forecasts on the weekend from some type of alienware or something.. forecasting a low of -13°C tonight. Wont even reach that for a high today..
ReplyDeleteBy the way, under the CBC forecast graphic on my main Rob's Obs website, I added a link to the 24 hr "hourly" Env Canada forecast for Winnipeg. (Click on "24hr" on the first line under the forecast graphic) This is a new product that just started earlier this week. It provides a table of hourly forecasts of temperature, weather conditions, precip chances, wind, and windchill over the next 24 hours, updated on the hour.
ReplyDeleteThe table can provide more detail to the forecast than you get with the standard worded forecast for your site. For example, the forecast for tonight is for a low of -24C but the hourly table shows that value will be reached overnight, with temperatures rising to -18C by 8 am tomorrow as southerly winds pick up. Similarly, the strongest winds are expected tomorrow afternoon acccording to the hourly table, which is not obvious from the worded forecast. SpotWX graphs this information with nice meteograms.
In terms of temperatures, I think spring 2011 may be the best recent analog. It was a cool and late spring, but not crazy late like 2013. I recall that the melt began in mid-March after a very cold start to March, similar to this year. April was cooler than normal but not enormously so. May was near-normal. And of course the summer was warm and dry.
ReplyDeleteRob, are your thoughts on the potential storm system stateside on Monday night into Tuesday?? I see NWS Grand Forks has a special weather statement for the potential for ICE and snow. I wonder if that could affect also effect us next week ??
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteI see that WN is calling 5-10 cm now. That is quite a bit more that the 2-4. Also, is that another potential clipper for next Friday?
thanks.
Todd..
ReplyDelete5-10 cm seems on the high side for tomorrow. Most guidance is in the 2-5 cm range between noon and 9 pm spreading in from western MB. But it will tough to measure anyways due to some strong southerly winds accompanying the snow. That will likely result in some poor visibilities in snow and blowing snow in Winnipeg/RRV Sunday afternoon into early evening.
Another stronger system tracks through the Dakotas Monday into Tuesday, but the bulk of snow with that system should stay mainly south of the US border, perhaps clipping SE MB.
As for next Friday.. long range guidance showing we may get brushed with another system tracking south of the border.. but too much uncertainty to say much more at this point.
Thanks Rob!
ReplyDeleteRob Re 1977,78 and particularly 79 Spring wise might that be a better analog.? Thats the last time the Great Lakes were 92% or more frozen and that was the last PDO change. The only other recent time we were anything near 90% frozen was 94 & 96. A few days ago Superior and Michigan and Huron were all more than 95%.
ReplyDeleteAre we effected by the same weather systems? Jeff Masters has suggested that the lakes take a lot of energy (heat) out of the atmosphere to melt and they will be a lot cooler this year and deeper after the melt See Jeff masters Blog
I wonder whether that enormous ice and snow sheet that extends From Buffalo Detroit and Chicago all the way west to Red Lake and the man/ont Border wont do the same for us or at least alter the normal spring. Don
On March 16, two years ago we were basking in near 20C heat. This year we are battling -20 windchills and a over a foot of snow in my yard. The joys of living in Manitoba :)
ReplyDeleteWow.. Snowing and blowing pretty good out there with band if moderate to locally heavy snow moving through along with strong southerlies gusting to 70 kmh producing blizzard like conditions. Snowfall amounts tough to say with the winds, but 5 cm looks likely before snow tapers off by mid evening. Careful on the roads this evening!
ReplyDelete400 meters visibility at the Winnipeg airport. I noticed that the snow has turned into more of a fine powder in the past few minutes which is really blowing around now!!
ReplyDeleteWOW! What is the snowfall rate right now in Winnipeg?? 5 cm/hour?? I can barely see across the street in the city here!!
ReplyDeleteSnow is tapering off in Winnipeg now, but it was an intense 3 hours of snow and blowing snow. I measured about 7 cm of new snow, but there was heavy drifting with general averages of 5-9 cm in drift free areas. I underestimated the effects of the drifting, and the snow itself was pretty intense. Similar to the March 5th afternoon event which dropped a quick 6 cm in blizzard like conditions with southerly winds.
ReplyDeleteHi Rob, could you please tell me how much snow you have now received for this winter season??
ReplyDeleteStorm total of 7.6 cm here at my place this evening.. puts me at 151 cm for the season.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the update. This snow pretty much ensures that we will have snowcover into the month of April.
ReplyDeleteCloser to 10 cm downtown with last night's mini-blizzard. That system was more intense than I was expecting.. with a band of heavier snow that set up right through Winnipeg last evening. Add those southerly winds gusting to 70-75 km/h, and it was pretty bad between 5 and 9 pm. Thankfully it happened on a Sunday.. that would have been a much bigger impact had it occurred during a weekday.
ReplyDeleteRob We seem to be sharing our springtime misery with other Central Canadians this year. What would a typical third week in March be like on the Niagara Peninsula? Don
ReplyDeleteDon..
ReplyDeleteLate March in Niagara can be quite variable.. from cold and blustery with snow, to warm and springlike. Typically, they average around +7C for highs by the third week of March, with little or no snow on the ground by then. If they do get snow around that time, it usually melts within a couple days. Note however that temperatures near Lakes Erie and Ontario can be quite a bit cooler than inland due to winds coming in off the cold or still ice covered lakes, sometimes with dense fog along the shorelines.
The nice thing about Niagara is that warm air over the Ohio Valley can often push across the peninsula, while cold easterly winds off Lake Ontario blocks that warm air from reaching Toronto.
I spent 20 of my years living in Niagara Falls. If you need any specifics about the region, etc, let me know.
ReplyDelete-Aaron.