Saturday, March 01, 2014

Frigid start to March

Early morning lows across southern MB -  March 1 2014
Winnipeg came within 0.8C of record low for Mar 1 (-37.8C Mar 1 1962)
Note sub -40C readings in Wasagaming and Carberry

(map courtesy of @jjcwpg)
It was a frigid start to March over southern MB as a massive outbreak of Arctic air swept across the Prairies overnight.  Temperatures early this morning bottomed out in the -35 to -40C range over much of southern MB, with the coldest reading of -42.8C at Wasagaming in Riding Mountain National Park.  In Winnipeg, the temperature fell to a low of -37.0C, over 20C below normal for March 1st (normal low of -15C)  The reading came within 0.8C of the record low for the day, which was set during a similar Arctic outbreak in 1962 when Winnipeg hit a record low of -37.8C on March 1st.  (That 1962 Arctic outbreak was even colder than this year's, with temperatures bottoming out at -41.7C in Brandon, and -45.6C in Sprague!)

Wind chills got down as low as -50 in Winnipeg
around 7 am on March 1 2014 setting a
new record low wind chill for March
The cold temperatures this morning were made even worse by winds of 15-20 km/h that produced dangerous wind chills down to -50 in Winnipeg around 7 am (-36C with a 18 km/h wind).  That set a new all time record low wind chill for March in Winnipeg, beating the previous low of -49 set on March 1 1962. (Note: Wind chill records only go back to 1953 in Winnipeg. They were not calculated before then) The cold conditions continued through the day with an afternoon high of only -26.0C, over 20C below normal for the day (normal high of -5C)  That was cold enough to set a new record low maximum for the day in Winnipeg (previously -22.2C on March 1st 1972) and was also the 2nd coldest maximum daily temperature ever in March (second only to a high of -26.7C set on March 7 1880)

In addition, the average temperature of -31.5C for the day made it the second coldest March day on record in Winnipeg since 1872, behind the -32.0C daily average of March 7 1880 (max -26.7C, min -37.2C)   Note that the daily average of -31.5C was about 21C below normal for the day (normal for March 1st is about -10.5C)  Daily anomalies of 20C are very rare, and indicate extreme out of season type weather. The last time Winnipeg had a daily anomaly of more than 20C was on March 19 2012 when we posted our warmest March day ever at 23.7C (with a low of 13.3C) That day was 23C ABOVE normal. In other words, yesterday's cold for this time of year was as unusual as the warmth was in 2012! An interesting statistic that really highlights the extreme volatility we've seen in the weather these past couple of years.

The unseasonably cold weather will continue for the next few days, but a moderating trend is expected by the end of next week as temperatures climb closer towards normal for early March.     
  

19 comments:

  1. I was looking back at that very warm March that we had back in 2012, and still cannot believe that we had temperatures as warm as that.

    I'm equally as stunned at these horribly cold temperatures we are getting this year!!

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  2. Yeah, 2012 was something else. And March was just a culmination of that incredibly mild winter. It's like we lived in Nebraska that year, and moved to Churchill this year! Crazy stuff!

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  3. Rob today's high temp must have been among the lowest highs of this winter right?

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  4. Mark..

    Yes it was. 4th coldest daytime high of the winter. Coldest highs in Winnipeg this winter as of today are as follows..

    1. Jan 5 ..... -30.2C
    2. Dec 31 ..... -29.3C
    3. Dec 30 ..... -28.0C
    4. Mar 1 ..... -26.0C
    5. Jan 27 ..... -25.5C

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  5. this week on the national they did a piece on how cold its been in Winnipeg this year. they said that Winnipeg had received 127 cm of snow this year which is 50% higher than normal. this surprised me as I thought that sounded like a fairly normal year for snow. what do you think rod?

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  6. >> magnolia_2000 said...this week on the national they did a piece on how cold its been in Winnipeg this year. they said that Winnipeg had received 127 cm of snow this year which is 50% higher than normal. this surprised me as I thought that sounded like a fairly normal year for snow.

    I think that's based on how much snow has fallen to the end of February. Normally, we should have about 85 cm by the end of February, but we've had 127 cm this winter so far, or about 40 cm more than normal up to this point. That works out to about 50% more than normal through the end of February.

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  7. Yesterday's daily average of -31.5C (average of both high and low) makes it the second coldest March day ever in Winnipeg, behind March 7 1880 at -32.0C. (thanks to Julien from JJ's Winnipeg Weather blog for those stats)

    That makes yesterday about 21C below normal (daily average for March 1st is around -10.5C). Daily anomalies of 20C are very rare, and indicate extreme out of season type weather. The last time we had a daily anomaly of more than 20C was on March 19 2012 when we posted our warmest March day ever at 23.7C (with a low of 13.3C) That day was about 23C ABOVE normal. In other words, yesterday's cold for this time of year was as unusual as the warmth was in 2012! Interesting statistic that really shows the extreme volatility we've seen in the weather these past couple of years.

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  8. We are experiencing a really bad winter in Saskatoon as well. The ground here has frozen much deeper than normal because of the relatively sparse snow cover (January chinooks melted some of it away). Ground temperatures at the 1 meter depth are nudging the -5C mark, whereas normal is just over -1C. The normal frost line is 1.3 meters - this year I think it is down to more than 2 meters.

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  9. Adi..

    We're having the same issue here in Winnipeg with the depth of ground frost. I read it's over 1.5m which is unusually deep here. Causing lots of problems with frozen water lines and burst water mains.. one of the worst winters in many years for that.

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  10. Rob, to what extent is that warmup going to be later in the week and how long will it last?

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  11. Anonymous.. Tough to say at this point. Looks like a definite warming trend by Thursday with a system bringing in some snow, then a bit of a cool down behind it before we bounce back up again early next week. But there's growing uncertainty in the models about how mild we'll be next week and how long it will last, which may be a sign of more changeable weather on the way.

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  12. For Thursday's system, preliminary estimates of snowfall are around 5 cm for Winnipeg and the RRV, along with gusty south winds ahead of the system Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Will refine those amounts and timing as we get closer..

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  13. One more crazy statistic from this winter is graphically portrayed in Chilling Horror Flick Áttack of the Car Eating Pot Holes on Bloomberg Business Channel http://mobile.bloomberg.com/video/winter-horror-show-attack-of-car-eating-potholes-x8sLZE4QQW64G7FmoCOTJQ.html
    Do you think Winnipeg can take pride in the knowledge that ours may be bigger than Chicago's
    or at least deeper?

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  14. Don.. Funny video.. or not funny if you happen to hit one of those suckers. I expect potholes will be popping up in droves over the next couple weeks as our temperatures warm up. Could be a very bad year for them..

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  15. Thanks Rob. Can not understand why it didnt win best mockumentary at the oscars last night.lol
    Agree and ours are already galacial n'est pas.

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  16. Latest guidance spreading that snow for Thursday in a little earlier, perhaps starting up Wednesday afternoon, continuing off and on Wednesday night into Thursday. Possibly one shot of snow ahead of the warm front Wednesday afternoon, then another shot with the main low tracking across Thursday. Still looking at about 5 cm or so in total. Winds will be an issue later Wednesday into Wednesday night, with strong southerly winds gusting to 70 km/h giving blowing and drifting snow.

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  17. Hi Rob,

    I see WN is now calling for up to 10 cm Wed/Thur. Is this overblown?

    Also, another storm next Monday?

    Is this ever going to end?

    Thanks

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  18. Todd..

    No, 10 cm isn't overblown.. but it's on the high end of current estimates. Looks like we'll get an initial shot Wednesday afternoon, possibly 2-4 cm or so, then another 5 cm or so overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Not all models are on board with Wednesday afternoon's snowfall.. with the NAM model showing just minor amounts. At least the snow will be falling with milder temperatures.. so salt should be effective at keeping roads slushy instead of icy. But there could be a few hours of poor vsbys with the snow moving in Wednesday afternoon with increasing southerly winds.

    And then yes, more snow by early next week with another clipper for Monday/Tuesday.. possibly 10 cm or so with that one based on early projections. Welcome to March!

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