Sunshine and warm temperatures capped a fitting end to March 2012 as temperatures once again soared well into the upper teens Saturday. In Winnipeg the high of 18.8C Saturday was just 0.1C off the record high of 18.9C for the 31st, set back in 1963. The balmy finish however propelled the monthly mean temperature in Winnipeg to +2.2C, easily the warmest March on record in the city since records began in 1872. The month was a whopping 8.3C above normal (30 year normal = -6.1C) and 0.6C above the previous warmest March of +1.6C set back over 130 years ago in 1878. Top 5 warmest Marches in Winnipeg (since 1872)
1. 2012 .......... +2.2C
2. 1878 .......... +1.6C
3. 1910 .......... +1.0C
4. 1973 .......... +0.5C
5. 2000 .......... -0.1C
Normal .......... -6.1C (1971-2000 normal)
A historic 12 day March heat wave through mid month was responsible for the record breaking month, which helped set all time March records throughout southern Manitoba and a wide swath of central North America into the Great Lakes. The heat wave obliterated Winnipeg's 25 cm snowpack in just a few days between the 10th and 14th, with temperatures more typical of early May between the 11th and 23rd. The month set 8 new daily record highs in Winnipeg, including all time warmest March temperature of 23.7C on the 19th. The warm spell also helped kick start the growing season by a full 3-4 weeks.. a concern for plant growers worried about a return to more typical freezing temperatures in April and May.
A look at past history shows that their concerns are indeed warranted as a warm March does not necessarily translate into a warm spring. In fact, of the past 9 previous warmest Marches in Winnipeg, only 4 were followed by above normal temperatures in April, and ALL had below normal temperatures in May! Those springs had an average of 20 freeze days in April, and 9 in May with frosts well into mid to late May (even the first week of June some years!). And if history is our guide, don't put away the snow shovels just yet. Of those past 9 warm Marches, all were followed by some measurable snow in April (including a 25 cm snowstorm April 15-17, 1910), and 4 had snow in May. So don't let the warm start to spring fool you.. this is southern Manitoba after all, and a warm March is no guarantee that cold weather is over.
WOW! What a recap.
ReplyDeleteLet's start out April right, with more record highs :)
Record high for today is 19.4C (1928) We'll need to clear out of this band of cloud by early afternoon to have a chance to beat that. 20C is possible with enough sun today, otherwise 17 or 18C.
ReplyDeleteRob, question.
ReplyDeleteI know the official snow measurements for Winnipeg are your place in Charleswood, but what about rainfall? Is your station the official rainfall as well, or do we have to use the annoying and false measurements from the airport?
Thanks
Anon..
ReplyDeleteNo, the airport is the official site for rainfall/melted pcpn measurements.. as faulty as they are sometimes. I only take official precip readings (both snow and rain) through the cold season.
Rob, question.
ReplyDeleteModels are indicating possible storm system by next Saturday. Does this look like anything major in terms of possible thunderstorms and precip amounts?
I also noticed much colder temps forecasted for alberta and saskatchewan for the end of next week as well with possible snow, do you think that 10c forecast for next saturday is optimistic at this point?
I noticed that ec is calling for above normal temps this month, do you agree with that?
Hey everyone!
ReplyDeleteJust checking out some of the temps in the midwest and there is some very warm air to our south!
St Louis is sitting at 28 C with a 16C dewpoint and 11:51 in the morning! That is amazing for this time of year!
Rob Where does that place the March rainfall total, and is March considered one of the cold months??
ReplyDeleteJust noticed that the Winnipeg Airport temp went from 15.9c to 16.6c in the last hour. Not a big rise that's for sure. Not sure we will get to that high of 21c today. With still some cloud lingering around and a more easterly than southeasterly breeze this afternoon may be enough to prevent us from breaking the record...still fabulous for this time of the year regardless. I agree with Daniel on those midwest temps pushing 30c at this hour...absolutely amazing
ReplyDeleteDT.. I don't have Winnipeg rainfall data, , so I'm not sure where this past March ranks for rainfall, but it must be up there. And yes, I take rain and snow data through March and April, and also May if it snows!
ReplyDelete32 C temperatures in Sioux Falls South Dakota and Omaha Neb. Downright HOT!!
ReplyDelete32C in South Dakota and Nebraska today is just insane for this time of the year.
ReplyDeleteYWG Airport now at 17.8C which will not be enough for a new record and 3 degrees shy of the forecasted 21C today. Too much cloud and a stiff easterly breeze likely prevented us from breaking the record...all in all still a beautiful day for April 1st. I see EC is now calling for rain tomorrow again and much colder temperatures. better enjoy the evening while the warmth lasts.
That stiff breeze has kept it much cooler (16.1) on the west bank of the Red River today. Usually a degree warmer
ReplyDeleteLots of weather to talk about!
ReplyDeleteNext weekend looks interesting!
If that GFS model verifies, we could be looking at a cold rain changing to a heavy wind swept snow. Lets see what the models show in a few days!!
I've been holding my breath over my forecast for tomorrow ever since I put it out on Friday morning. I went with what looked best at the time, which was rain for tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteThe models promptly obliterated that thought.
I've been wondering what exactly seemed to have changed, and I couldn't figure it out. And now the models have come full circle and are forecasting rain again for tomorrow.
Just goes to show that unless you can validate changes in the model against what's happening in real life, don't trust them.
(In fact, there were plenty of showers that I was able to mention in my blog that none of the model runs over the weekend caught).
Great start to today early this morning within 5° of todays record 16.9
ReplyDeleteToo bad we're not going to budge any higher today. If anything, we'll drop 4-6°C when the winds switch to the NW a bit later and bring in cooler air.
ReplyDeleteStorms are firing South of the Border, we may get some here in the next hour or so....
ReplyDeleteLooks like they'll be moving mainly southeast of Winnipeg.. and that band to tour northwest looks like its fizzling out. We may escape with little or no rain here in the city.
ReplyDeleteTHanks for the update Rob.... I knew that we likely were going to miss the storms. We always seem to end up missing out on the good stuff...
ReplyDeleteMike, I couldn't agree more
ReplyDeleteAlthough 2 decent storms in March, can't complain :)
ReplyDeleteMissing one more system has kept us from the record books See Comment 55 in Robs March 24th Blog
ReplyDeleteI can't agree more, 2 thunderstorms aren't bad for the beginning of the season. At this rate, we may have more thunderstorms than we did last year. The odds are in our favour, considering how much rain we have already gotten, plus the jetstream is diverting those storm systems towards us...
ReplyDeleteTwo thunderstorms in Grand Forks this afternoon....both with hail up to one half inch in size.
ReplyDeleteNot to bad, Dan! I was wondering if there was any decent hail under those cells!
ReplyDeleteHow are you doing with this sweltering spring? A little disappointed? Wishing for -15°C, a 40mph wind and a foot and a half of snow?
Tornado Emergency for Dallas as two tornados reported on the ground!
ReplyDeleteAmazing footage of tornado in Dallas of tractor trailers getting thrown hundred of feet into the air!
ReplyDelete