Saturday, March 17, 2012
Warmest March day on record forecast Sunday
Record books have been taking a beating the past few days as a historic March warm spell over the past week rewrites temperature records across southern MB and much of the central US. Winnipeg has recorded 5 new daily record highs since last Sunday, smashing previous record highs by as much as 6-7C yesterday and today. Incredibly, even warmer weather is forecast Sunday into Monday as a southerly flow pumps a summerlike airmass into southern MB with temperatures soaring into the 20s. The forecast high in Winnipeg Sunday is 26C, which would set a new mark as the warmest March temperature ever recorded in the city since records began in 1872. (Winnipeg's current all time high for March is 23.3C set back on March 27, 1946) The warm weather is forecast to persist into Monday as southerly winds continue with temperatures again in the 20s but an increasing chance of showers and even some thunderstorms. Cooler weasther is forecast Tuesday through the rest of the week, although still above the normal high of 0C for this time of year.
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Vast majority of poll respondents (73%) think that Winnipeg will set a new record monthly high Sunday or Monday of 23.4C or higher, while a small minority (19%) think we'll fall just shy of the mark. One brave individual went for the tie! 2 others thought we wouldn't even break the 20C mark.
ReplyDeleteModel wise, GEM is the warmest and sunniest for us Sunday, with a projected high of 28C for Winnipeg which seems unlikely. NAM is the coolest with a high of only 19C and plenty of low cloud keeping insolation at a minimum. The Euro is in between, calling for 24C for Winnipeg and cloudy to partly sunny skies. Hopefully the low clouds that are spreading north from the Dakotas and Minnesota this evening will be clearing out by midday Sunday to help us set that monthly record. If not, we may have another shot at it Monday.
International Falls MN set an all time March record today at 77F (25C), over 20F above the previous day's record of 55F! Very unusual to set an all time March record in the middle of the month, rather than near the end when it's climatologically warmer. That shows how abnormal this warm spell is.
ReplyDeleteTemperature has cooled off quickly this evening as NE winds advect cooler air from the Interlake area into Winnipeg and the RRV. Increasing pressure gradient has tightened up the warm front which now lies along the US border into central ND. The northward push of this front Sunday will be the key as to who gets into the 20s.
ReplyDeleteYou can smell the humidity out there this morning.. almost like a summer morning. Dewpoints have climbed dramatically the past couple of hours in Winnipeg as winds have shifted into the SE tapping the warmer and more humid air to our south. This means the warm front is actually passing though us already which bodes well for us getting to that March record today. Also we have sunshine already here with low clouds and fog not as widespread as some models were suggesting which will also help us warm up.. All in all, looks promising for a record breaking day!
ReplyDelete15C as of 10 am in Winnipeg, already tops record high for the day of 14.4C (1910). Just 8C to go for all time March status.
ReplyDeleteIn comparison to old records did we blow thru before 9CST vs 10CDT??
ReplyDeleteLeonard.. yes, I guess that's right. I'm not sure when we started DST here, but regardless, we broke a 102 year old record by mid morning. Extraordinary.
ReplyDelete20.2C as of noon at YWG airport. March 18, 2012 officially becomes Winnipeg's earliest 20C day on record. (prev record Mar 23 1910)
ReplyDeleteRob: I was wondering if you might be able to ‘help me out’:
ReplyDeleteI've looked ‘high and low' for a source on the Web where I could find the following information:
For a 'given Calendar Day of a year', what are the HIGHEST AND LOWEST Temperatures ever recorded 'in' Winnipeg?
(ie. 365 times 2 = 730 values)
(ie. Temperature Extremes By Day of the Year, regardless of year)
'That' (the above) would probably do, tho' *IDEALLY* it would be nice to have the HIGHEST *AND* LOWEST *DAYTIME* AND *OVERNIGHT* temperatures on record.
(ie. 4 values per day times 365 days = 1460 values)
If you might know of a source, I would appreciate it very much if you could either post a link (or whatever) on your blog or, alternately, email me at:
hgmannister@hotmail.com
Thanks.
BTW: really enjoy your blog. In fact, for almost two decades now I’ve never used anything other than ‘blank’ for a browser home page but I recently finally changed it to yours. Thanks again.
Also amazing are the dewpoints today.. 15.6C at YWG airport! Those high dewpoints however may prevent us from attaining the all time March record of 23.3C. Extensive area of low cloud to our south spreading into the city.. which will limit the afternoon sunshine. That may be enough to keep us from hitting that record today.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous..
ReplyDeleteYou can access daily record highs and low for Winnipeg on my "stats page" (under the "STATS" tab) At the very top of the stats page are links to each month showing records for each day of the month (for highs and lows)
Hope that helps. And thanks for visiting my site!
Rob If this hot dry spring is anything like 1980 you may want to move your Davis equipment farther away from any trees. That April May seems very similar to this. 13 days over 30C including 9 in a row in May and 21 days over 80F Strong south winds. and Extremely Dry. All time April and May records of 34.3 and 37 occured
ReplyDeleteMy question.. I recall but cannot locate source confirmtion The CNR tracks along Wilkes were suspected as grass fires started there on a regular basis One of the largest fires was blown by the strong south winds between Harstone and Buckingham(?) from Wilkes almost to Roblyn. It was estimated that 70% of Winnipegs fire dept was involved in controling this blaze
Can you or anyone provide a source for this
Anonymous.. I don't have any info on the 1980 wildfires as I wasn't in Winnipeg at the time (living in Niagara back then) But I do know how hot and dry that spring was, and drought is definitely a concern going into this spring. But as we've seen in other years, things can change quickly from a dry warm pattern to cool and wet, so I wouldn't be too concerned just yet.
ReplyDeleteOfficial high of 20.9C at YWG airport today before that darn low cloud moved in just after noon. If clouds had held off just one or two more hours, we would have broken the all time March record today. One more shot at it tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteOne last chance for Winnipeg breaking the all time March record on Monday. Low clouds should dissipate overnight with slightly drier air in the low levels Monday. Southerly flow continues with 925 mb temps of 18C by afternoon.. which would give us a high of 24-25C provided we have enough sun. Some thicker mid and high clouds moving in by late afternoon, but likely late enough not to limit heating too much.
ReplyDeletePlus I work all day tomorrow so of course it will happen then. :)
At least we broke highest March humidex today ;) Although maybe we'll break it again tomorrow
ReplyDeletelooks like thunderstorms are starting to pop up around central Saskatchewan along the Manitoba border.
ReplyDeleteJust came back from a trip to Neepawa the past few days. Noticed that humidity as soon as I got out of the car this afternoon. Very humid for March. Here's hoping that we can break that record tomorrow. Right down to the wire!!
ReplyDeleteRob!!!
ReplyDeleteIf we do have a overnight low of
14 C tonight as forecast, will that smash the warmest overnight low in March?????
Yes, a low of 14C would easily be the warmest low on record. Currently, the warmest overnight low in March for Winnipeg was 7.8C on March 25 1945. So a low of 14C tonight (tomorrow) would not only be an all time record, it would also be the only time that Winnipeg had a double digit low in March (provided it doesn't fall below 10c by midnight Monday night)
ReplyDelete