Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Strong westerly winds to buffet Manitoba lakes this afternoon into Wednesday morning

A cold front pushing across southern Manitoba today will usher in a westerly flow of drier and cooler air this afternoon into tonight. West winds gusting to 60 or 70 km/h are likely this afternoon into this evening across the Red River valley as drier air pushes in from the west (see real time wind readings from Winnipeg airport). Strong wind warnings have been posted over the Lake Manitoba and southern Lake Winnipeg marine areas for sustained westerly to northwest winds of 30 knots later today into tonight, with west to northwest gales of 40-45 knots forecast over the north basin of Lake Winnipeg by tonight. These strong winds will cause already high lake levels to rise another 0.5 to 1 metre on the east and south side of the lakes, with waves of 1-2 metres on top of that. See real time lake levels for Manitoba (click here for Victoria Beach or Lk Wpg north basin), and here for latest Manitoba marine observations.

55 comments:

  1. I do feel bad for people on Lake manitoba they have been going through a lot lately, theyve already lost their homes to damage, with this it will make their homes unliveable. It will be twice as worse in the fall and winter, what are we going to do?

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  2. Just a reminder.. wind readings from my weather station are currently unavailable as I wait for some parts. Winds are not calm in Charleswood!

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  3. rob...
    as winds are strong where you are, they are also quite gusty from my NW in St.James. Easy ride home from work with the winds pushing me.
    Good luck on getting your wind readings back up, you don't want to go without it.

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  4. Rob

    Curious how much rain in Winnipeg since Jun 1st... useful to compare to what our sites have had.

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  5. Some towering cumulus very close, to my northwest!
    Maybe areas to the east of the city could get a storm this evening!

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  6. Nasty little storm just NE of the Peg, must be one of those towering cumulus.

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  7. Dan..

    As of today, officially 62 mm (2.5") at YWG airport since June 1st (45.5 mm in June, 10.0 mm in July and 6.5 mm so far in August) Normally we should have had about 200 mm by now, so we're running about a third of normal rainfall over the northern RRV.

    See pcpn graph for YWG past 90 days at..

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/sn71852_90.gif

    Other parts of the city have had more rain over that time, including my site just southwest of the airport with about 90 mm since June 1st. Things much better just 30 miles south of us down to the border with almost normal amounts of rainfall since June 1st.

    This map from Drought Watch petty much tells the story:

    http://www4.agr.gc.ca/resources/prod/doc/pfra/maps/nrt/pr_60_av_s_e.gif

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  8. Tornado over NW Ontario this afternoon.. possibly long tracked from near Kenora to Sioux Lookout.

    Click on my name for video from Dryden ON..

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  9. Thanks Rob for the rain info...

    I put a link to the Dryden TOR video on NWS Grand Forks FB page.

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  10. Small storm to my north. A few lighting strikes could be seen from my balcony!!

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  11. Rob

    I forwarded this info to our media TV mets here and John Wheeler who is the main met for wday/wdaz said a winnipeg viewer e-mailed him info about this...odd that the lawns are dormant but the river is normal flow levels. He wrote a piece about for Thursday's Fargo Forum weather column.

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  12. sorry....meant Wednesday's Forum...

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  13. Yeah, I have a good view of that storm to the north here in Transcona, daniel. Quite a few lightning strikes out of that cell!

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  14. Radar is showing some light rain areas heading down from the northwest! Could Winnipeg get something tonight???

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  15. WHOA!
    Got a very quick burst of strong winds!!! I'd say around 70-80 km/h!
    Here in St James!

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  16. Dan..

    Yes, it's been a very odd summer. The Assiniboine River is still flowing as fast as I've ever seen it in the summer around here, and the downtown river walkway is still under water. Yet, lawns are yellow and earth is cracking here. Bizarre juxtaposition of drought and flood this year..

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  17. Winnipeg airport officially recorded a thunderstorm with that passing cell last evening.. first thunderstorm observation since July 4th. Not much of a "storm" though.. only 20 minutes with a light thundershower (I didn't even notice it). 0.5 mm of rain yesterday at YWG airport.

    Unofficially, no good thunderstorms here all summer.

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  18. The extended forecast for Saturday says SUNNY over Winnipeg. Yet all around to the immediate east-west-north-south is MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD WITH 40 PERCENT CHANGE OF SHOWERS. Looks like we've found our culprit. It's that darn EC computer.

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  19. Rob!
    Always wanted to ask you:

    What is your most memorable weather event that you have ever experienced?????

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  20. 100mm + south of Thompson from this last system, and still coming down.

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  21. Rob, do you know what's the driest August on record? At this rate, we may just break that record, depending what the record is.

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  22. Haven't had to cut the lawn for over a month, so I guess that's one advantage of the drier weather :P But it looks horrible..

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  23. Daniel..

    For me, most memorable weather event would have to be the Blizzard of '77 that hit the Niagara Peninsula of southern Ontario, including my hometown of Welland, during the last 4 days of January 1977. We never experienced such a prolonged Arctic style blizzard before. We were stranded for a week.. unheard of in southern Ontario. Drifts over 30 feet high buried houses, roads, vehicles.. It was the first time I really noticed the power of nature, and I was hooked. That storm is what triggered my interest in meteorology.

    Other memorable events include.. the Barrie tornado outbreak of May 1985 (didn't experience it but saw the aftermath), the 50 cm snowfall in north Toronto Dec 1992, getting brushed by the east-coast Superstorm of March 1993, getting the tail end of a damaging derecho at 3 am in north Toronto July 1995..

    As far as Winnipeg events go, my most memorable event was the November 1986 blizzard.. 35 cm of wind whipped snow that paralyzed the city for 2 days. That, and some nocturnal thunderstorms with tons of lightning and flooding rains back in July 2005. And of course, the severe weather outbreak of June 2007 (even though it didn't hit here) Overall though, Winnipeg weather has been pretty uneventful over the past decade or so, at least in my experience. Still waiting for that big memorable storm here.. either summer or winter!

    How about yourself?

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  24. Anonymous..

    August 1915 had a monthly total of only 3.3 mm. August 1961 was another dry one with only 4.1 mm. As of today, Winnipeg airport has recorded 7.0 mm so it won't be the driest August. But we could be approaching all time driest summer (JJA) which currently stands at 76.7 mm in 1929. Currently YWG airport is at 62.5 mm, so we need 14 mm or less over the next two weeks to break that record. Normally, getting 14 mm over 2 weeks would be no problem.. but the way it's been going this year, we may have a shot at it.. (watch we get a 15 mm downpour just before midnight August 31st!)

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  25. Rob,

    2005 was a memorable summer in terms of thunderstorms in Altona. We had numerous great events. The early morning of Father's Day, June 19th featured a bowing storm move through. Wind gusts over 100 km/h and non stop lightning.

    You may also remember the June 2nd event. Dave Carlsen got some good video of a large multi vortex tornado near Pilot Mound. That was a classic set up for southern Manitoba.

    Interesting to see that 2005, overall, was a cooler than normal year. Seems like we were in the perfect spot for high impact thunderstorm events.

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  26. Sorry, I meant to say July 2nd.

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  27. with the lack of rain we have less of grass to cut in our backyard in st.James, normally this time of year we'd be mowing it daily as it would be quite thick and green. Although i got a spout of rain last night, saw some awesome lightning to my north last night. i thought we were gonna get it but we never did (not in st.james). I guess N.Kildonan got it. I watched it on radar as it tracked east, it ended up hitting my grandparents house in beausejour. We will get our turn, it'll just take a while to hit.

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  28. Rob....


    My most memeroble events would have to be the snowstorm back in 2007 here in winnipeg. It was one of the worst to hit the city in years with snow as high as 25cm. Cars were buried and couldn't be moved until the snow plows cleared it. The worst of all our street was so full with snow, traffic couldn't even drive through. The worst of all was the visibilty in the storm. My second most memorable event was the Wicked summer storm on June 18th friday of 2007.along with the elie tornado I was scared out of my mind on that day.

    2010 was also memorable for the storms. We had a lot. Such as the May 20th flooding at 10am, storms of july that brought our rainfall up. July storms that battered the city and its river walk, and the lightning from them was amazing a ton more than this year.

    In august we happened to be up in victoria beach and saw such an amazing strobe lightning spectacle that wouldn't let up for a full hour, bringing with it very heavy rain and wind that eventualy was to harsh on the powerlines, making us lose power. You don't know the true power of lightning until your out at the cottage. That was august 20th. But I will always have more to tell about our storms in the future,as we see many more in the years. feel free to comment.

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  29. Most memourable for me in the 12 years I've lived here would easily be the storms of 2005 as well. Especially July 16/17 with the unbelievable 100mm in south end where I lived. It got me interested in weather for sure.
    Second would be the two heat waves of July 2007, with extreme humidex. Definitely the hottest stretch I've ever been through.

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  30. Thank you for the numbers Rob, definitely will be counting down to driest summer!! :) Would be quite something indeed.

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  31. ........

    I'm bored, where are all our wicked summer weather. I can't keep busy. Speaking of which I beleive our lightning count is twice as low as last year, due to the lessened frequency of storms hitting us. weird aint it? well I guess it's time to bring out my photo album of all our previous storms. That should help.

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  32. Well Im done talking for now until we start getting some weather here. TTYL Everyone.

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  33. Hi rob!
    My most memorable weather event is the April Blizzrd of 1997 which capped off an incredible winter of 96/97! The flooding aftermatch was also something none will forget!

    I'm confused....did you live in Winnipeg in the late 80's and then went back to Ontario for the early 90's???? Came back to Winnipeg again after that>>>>????

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  34. YIKES!!!
    Rob, I typed the Blizzard of 77 into Wikipedia and read the GRUESOME details. That storm was a MONSTER! A storm of BIBLICAL proportions....ok how many more superlatives can I use???? :-)

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  35. I was just on a webpage that had listed the TOP TEN weather diasters of the year so far.
    They forgot to put Winnipeg down.
    A DIASTER of a storm season here.
    Total losses in dollars is unknown but years of depression for sure....

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  36. daniel..

    I was in Winnipeg briefly off the met training course from the summer of '86 to the spring of '88 before returning to Ontario. I came back to Winnipeg in the summer of 1998 and have been here since. Interesting that I experienced one of Winnipeg's worst blizzards when I was here briefly in the mid 80s. I thought that was normal for a prairie winter!

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  37. One of my favorite severe weather events in my region.

    http://www.umanitoba.ca/faculties/environment/envirogeog/weather/wpo.html

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  38. Derek. I tried that link, seems to me you might have got the website wrong, as i was directed to the environmental faculties of U Manitoba. Is this the website? if so where would I go to see your favourite severe weather memory.
    let me know

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  39. Dan GF

    I see that some of the NWS offices are upgrading their dopplar radars to dual polarization!! Fancy stuff!

    Any chance of Grand Forks getting that technology or is that a extreme long shot???

    I wonder if Canada could get in on some of that action too....

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  40. Sorry, the link seemed to have been cut off. Here it is..

    http://umanitoba.ca/environment/envirogeog/weather/wpo.html

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  41. I typed it into my name instead. Should work better that way. Seems to get cut off otherwise.

    One of the best radar images I can remember. Tons of lightning that night, too.

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  42. More hot weather next week. Models haven't been consistent on whether its short lived or if it will be an extended stay. Any ideas?

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  43. Speaking of those winds I was out at Hillside Beach yesterday and the day before and it was incredible! Winds were just buffeting the cabin we were in like crazy. And the waves were huge! Looking at the lake levels on lake winnipeg you can definitely see a noticeable rise from tuesday into wednesday by almost a meter I'd think.

    And Mike I remember the exact storm you mentioned at victoria beach on the evening of August 20th last year. We were staying at Hillside beach not far from victoria beach and the power was knocked out at the cabin we were staying at for most of the night. The storm seemed to have formed just over the lake and moved right in. The cabin we were at had a lake front view so it was neat seeing the storm right on the lake with all the intense lightning right out from our window. I could see the storms just off to the SW over lake winnipeg and thought we would get missed then to my absolute joy ended up getting definitely one of my most favourite storms ever! I love seeing storms at the lake! Thats funny that somebody else remembered that same storm last year.

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  44. Those pictures are reminders of two most memorable events. One was the the the August 5 2006 F2 Tornado near Netley Golf Course. An avid watcher of the Robs obs radar links but oblivious to the true direction of the storm as Cottage dialup connections were slow!!
    Driving south away?? from the apparent path of the tornado we ran into the wood frame clubhouse for shelter. Noise was horrendous on the tin roof. Views were black out the windows and the golf afterwards was strangely distractive. Couldn't watch the sky n swing the club at the same time.
    The first and most memorable was three nights of insane storms inside a Triple E 15 foot trailer on the edge of Minneapolis in the mid 70s. Tornado warnings all around, power out and people pounding at the door to come in for shelter!! Turns out it was three nights of tornados the nearest of which was in the same campground less than a km away. Noise was akin 2 going over Niagara Falls in a metal barrel. O' yeah that was us screaming!!!..

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  45. Flew in last eve and the contrast is eerie. Emerald and lime green fields full of standing water (in August?) They consume the landscape. Then you cross the perimeter to little swirls of dust and a dusty straw beige organic carpet.
    Who's sitting on the switch to the Dome Shield?

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  46. The worst storm I've experienced is the 1998 Ice Storm...

    -35 deaths, about 1000 injuries
    -6 Billions in damage
    -120 mm of rain freezing at ground level.

    To date, it's still the worst (and costliest) natural disaster in Canadian history.

    Only one power linkage didn't go down in Montreal. Had that power linkage gone down, the second largest city in the country would have had to be evacuated.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_ice_storm_of_1998

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  47. It was also the 98 ice storm that got me interested in storms/weather.

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  48. Seems we all have a particular event that got us interested in watching the weather. Interesting.

    Well, hopefully we can squeeze in some storms later on today along the cold front, but I'm not going to get too optimistic or we'll be dissapointed.

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  49. thanks derek I'll have a look.

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  50. Adam....
    It Is really neat knowing you experienced the same storm as I did. As a matter of fact I forgot to mention that i paid attention quite closely to the storms to our south before getting hit, at albert beach near victoria beach. At first i had noticed some odd flashes of lightning with the southern storms while riding my bike they apparently were moving east, I'd thought they would miss us. I eventually went storm chasing with my dad to investigate, the lightning over by pine falls was insane. Turns out on the way back we had noticed a second storm moving in from our west southwest, seemed like it formed out of the blue. It got to us within 15 min after getting back. I did have my trusty weather radio with me and it never went off, while there was warnings. I checked the historical radar after getting home, it showed storms gathering northeast of winnipeg moving north to us,then they all bunched together and rotated northeast clipping lake winnipeg and directly hitting us.check out the radar here you can advance and choose timeframes.

    http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?RadarSite=XWL&sYear=2010&sMonth=8&sDay=21&sHour=02&sMin=00&sec=00&Duration=2&ImageType=Default

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  51. Adam.....
    Click my name and that should bring you to the website.

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  52. looks like EC is mentioning a threat for supercell thunderstorms west,north and east of winnipeg. Including here in the peg. breaking of the Cap will probably determine the chance of us seeing anything.
    what do you think?

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  53. If you want to see why we are experiencing a drought, just check out the progged 500 hPa flow on NAM and RUC. Very good example of a splitting flow around an amplifying upper ridge. One shortwave and LLJ going across the northern and central plains and a northern stream wave going up to thru the interlake.. same old story.

    There is little in the way of a cap and it looks like just enough moisture may ooze northwards to produce higher instability, but the lack of lift/dynamics might make it difficult for storms to initiate and any devolopment further south may cut off moisture supply. Already some ACC and elevated convection around Bismarck back thru Dickinson..

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  54. Not sure if it's my favorite storm because of the tragic results, but I witnessed the 2006 Gull Lake tornado while driving east on Hwy 317. I was straight south and saw the whole thing. Also saw another small tornado that touched down near Hwy 59 a few minutes before the Gull Lake one. Then continued driving east to a cottage near the mouth of Bird River, just pulled up and another tornado passed by a few hundred meters away (didn't see it due to a wall of rain, but the clouds were emerald green). Quite scary but strangely fun as well.

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