A weak system tracking through the Dakotas will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms later today into tonight mainly near and south of the international border. Scattered thunderstorms are possible over the Red River valley, but the more organized activity is expected mainly south of the border, as has been the case most of the summer. Sunny and warm weather is expected over southern Manitoba for the weekend into early next week, with temperature climbing to the 30C mark once again by Sunday. Great weather for beach lovers, but not for farmers in the northern RRV who are desperately looking for some significant rainfall.
Tuesday possibly something impacting us. That jet streams gotta push more north for us to have any chance of seeing some storms this year
ReplyDeleteWill we see those fall colors in the next few weeks and the leaves fall before the end of August. IMMIC they did in 1980 after a drought of Less than 10mm/mo 5 mo ending June 10 and less than 15 mm/mo 6 mos ending July 10.
ReplyDeleteA poll for those of us who can't get enough sunshine?
Rob let us know when the jetstream shifts north and moves over us.
ReplyDeleteThanks, TTYL.
A storm developing/developed north of Dauphin. Its neat to watch this storm develop on NavCanada's wx cam for Dauphin. Hit the play button on the bottom of the photo! Click the link below or on my name
ReplyDeletehttp://www.metcam.navcanada.ca/hb/player.jsp?lang=e&site=CYDN
That storm north of dauphin is a great example of a trigger off the escarpment! And then there are the storms east of Lake Winnipeg which could be triggered by the lake itself! With no fronts or anything else present in this unstable atmosphere this is how I think they’re being triggered (which someone can correct me if I’m wrong). Check the visible loop here (or click my name) to see what I mean. Watch the 12 image loop
ReplyDeletehttp://weather.cod.edu/satrad/index.php
If I had to put a guess, I'd say we'll get nothing here, just because... Anyone have an idea when was the driest summer ever in WPG? (June-July-August) Would be interesting to see if we're close.
ReplyDeleteLook at the radar, there are some widely scattered storms popping up all around the south. Amazing, I wonder if one would form to the NW of us and hit us. Thats what happens with unstable days like these, I truly would love a storm now. especially If I had the power to bring the storms in dauphin over to us. Cheers to a chance of seeing a storm.
ReplyDeleteBest shot for Winnipeg would be for something to form off the east shore of L Manitoba and drift ESE. The one advantage about a NW flow is that it brings lake breeze enhanced stomrs into the picture for Winnipeg. The highest instability is pooiling along a weak front that has stalled just south of Winnipeg (surprise surprise ;) However, the organized convection is occurring where there is better lift closer to the upper wave in the dakotas.
ReplyDeleteThere are some hints that the front is stalling a bit further north and hopefully (but unlikely) forcing from the distrubance will be a tad further north as well allowing us to tap a bit of rain overnight.
Thanks for the briefing daniel, you know I betcha well see something form off that lake. I wish I had a magic wand to make something develop. Its also good to see we have that front to make some storms, finally summer is here.
ReplyDeleteHuge storms ongoing down in south/north dakota some storms are even going severe storm warned. This year is a lot different than last year as La Nina is keeping the Jet stream to the south feeding all the weather along it, but last year El Nino had kept the jetstream further north allowing for us to get more nasty weather. Never knew there was such a difference between the two. Still Todays storms are being fed by CAPE Values in the 1400-1700 J/KG range, in dry weather but unstable above due to the upper level trough. Am I right?
ReplyDeleteAgain, the M word today, 'miss' :p. I spoke with some family out in south west Manitoba, and they were shocked to hear we haven't had a storm since July 4. They've had many more this summer. What a nightmare
ReplyDeleteAnon.....
ReplyDeleteI am also annoyed as we haven't seen anything since that day, if we even get one before summers end I'll be happy. How many did they exactly get this year since that day, I'm curious?
On the other end earlier today I looked the GEM Model, looks promising. starting Tuesday August 16th-19th 2 systems will develop and move east throughout the prairies, they will bring with it another round of storms and heavy rain for the first time in a while. Right now its pointing at about 45mm of rain in total with these 2 storm systems. I suspect the models might be overplaying it a bit. It only makes sense for these amounts if we were to get severe storms. who knows. At this point on all I know is that we can see storms within the near future.
I have a better chance of getting hit my lighting right now while typing this than Winnipeg getting a thunderst.....ZZZZAAPPPPPP!!!
ReplyDeleteCRACKLE!!!!!!!! ARHHHHHH.....
I don't know how many Mike, but I know they had several in June, and at least half a dozen in July and so far this August. I'm really jealous of them :P lol Definitely better than our lone July 4 storm. Same lets hope the summer ends with a bang to end the relentless heat this summer =)
ReplyDeleteQuick question for anyone who knows the answer: is the intense "rain" on radar that has been sitting east of Brandon over Spruce Woods Provincial Park actually rain, or is it background noise that occasionally shows up on radar? It's hard for me to tell, as I know the cells are supposed to be slow moving today - I was thinking about heading out there later today and whether or not I go depends on the answer. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteThere are actually a couple of storm cells basically sitting out there. Check this link - http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Summary.aspx?location=USND0037
ReplyDeleteSome of what is being shown on radar is AP (Anomalous Propagation) which are false echoes which usually show up around there probably from some of the hills in the area. However there is an isolated, slow moving storm occurring in that area. With the lack of shear in the enviornment any storms that maintain will be slow moving and could give high amounts of rain.
ReplyDeleteI for one are also done with this lack of tstorm weather. I wish I could blow up that deformation zone that prevents us from getting storms! Most activity staying south of the Trans Can again today. Its funny how a highway or an international border seem to be controlling the weather patterns we’ve been seeing lately. Its actually been like that for a long time around here.
This year really reminds me to appreciate every single storm we get. I often forget how bad a season can get, especially on years like last year when storms were frequent. Well this year we've really hit rock bottom.
ReplyDeleteOn the bright side, it can only get better from this year on ;)
Thanks Kinguni and Adam. No hiking for me today. It looks like there's been moderate to heavy rain from that parked cell for a number of hours now. If there's a rain gauge somewhere between Carberry and Glenboro, it would be interesting to see the info.
ReplyDeleteYou might be ok now the activity around spruce woods has seemed to have diminished.
ReplyDeleteMb-ag mesonet showing 32 mm in Glenboro and 21 mm from Treherne. Band having a tough time progressing eastward into Winnipeg/northern RRV. Our NE flow of somewhat drier air isn't helping matters. (That NE flow is also bringing some smoke from NW Ontario into our area.. you can really smell it out there today)
ReplyDeleteIt's kind of funny when the smoke gets blown in from the NE, you can tell there is a counterclockwise flow in the winds meaning a low pressure system must have to be nearby. You don't even have to look online, it's natures indication.
ReplyDeleteOur next chance to miss out on thunderstorms will be Tuesday.. warm frontal stuff in the morning, then possible cold frontal activity Tuesday evening. We'll see if the perimeter shield holds again.. ;)
ReplyDeleteRob, have a look at the GEM Precipitation Model. We may have a pretty good chance of seeing severe weather as the model is pointing to about 30 mm in between the 2 inter-lakes (around winnipeg). Most of the precipation will fall in manitoba. It really depends on several dynamics and factors on that day such as temperatures,dewpoints,capping,location of fronts, jet stream location, and many others. Overall I'm more optimistic this time as the GEM showed heavy rain/storms at the same time of the passing fronts. I'll follow this closely through several weather sources within the next few days, and I'll tell ya what I think come Tuesday. This May be our only chance.....
ReplyDeleteThe models have been consistent with that system to impact us on Tuesday/Wednesday over the last couple of days. Thats a goog sign. Lets hope it holds out and that all the future model runs will still show us getting something.
ReplyDeleteGEM has been too aggressive on convective precip amounts all summer.. almost to the point of discounting it. That being said, GFS and NAM, which have been better, are also showing fairly significant rainfall possible Tuesday for Winnipeg/RRV with showers and thunderstorms likely. Whether or not Winnipeg sees much remains to be seen. The convective mechanism Monday night into Tuesday morning appears to be warm frontal which is notoriously difficult for models to predict both in intensity and location, especially this far out. Bottom line.. potential is certainly there.. but still too early to say that Winnipeg will see something significant.
ReplyDeleteBTW, that forecast of RAIN for Tuesday and Wednesday is somewhat misleading. It appears to suggest two straight days of non stop rain, when in fact, models are showing some showers/thunderstorms Tuesday, followed by a break Tuesday night, then wrap around showers by Wednesday afternoon. Certainly not a two day rain that the forecast seems to imply..
Last eves rain seems to have dropped copious amts in Cass and Clay county ND.. up to 4.7 inches
ReplyDeleteIs that accurate?
Dan GFks... some storm?? Jim BC
Thanks rob. Seems to me during the summer months everytime a big storm system is forecast they would always say rain. I'm curious to see what comes out of their forecast on Monday/tuesday. Although 2 days of non stop rain wouldn't be bad for us as we need it.
ReplyDeleteHi Jim
ReplyDeleteI was on radar fri evening and once again the areas that keep getting the rain got more. On the north side of the surface low there was a band of intense thunderstorms...but core coverage was quite small a mile or two wide at most...in a band north and northeast of Fargo. The 4.7 inch report was via our facebook page 3-4 miles south of Georgetown MN (along the Red just north of Fargo). The guy is a farmer and his father keeps local weather stats for personal use....and said his farm has had about 20 inches of rain since April. Similar affair west a bit into northern Cass county ND.
The Red River at Fargo has been below flood stage only two days since March 29th. FS is 18 ft.
By the way....is Facebook as big north of the border as here. Each NWS office now has a FB page....just get onto facebook and search for US National Weather Service Grand Forks. We just hit 1,000 likes. I often post during weather to keep folks updated, and also to get reports back. We have found tremendous success in getting reports by monitoring area TV station FB pages. Especially ValleyNewsLive which is NBC/CBS in Fargo. WDAY/WDAZ a bit less traffic.
ReplyDeleteHi Dan..
ReplyDeleteSocial media such as Facebook and Twitter very big up here in Canada, but EC very slow to adopt into their program. We'd really like to get Twitter going up here to get instant storm reports, but between security concerns, bilingual obligations, and maintenance issues, it's a tough sell trying to adopt anything like Facebook, Twitter or even a regional website within EC. Very frustrating.. EC is really falling behind in terms of using modern communication methods to share information with the public..
Thnx DanGF.Followed the Facebook page for a few weeks in spring. Primarily use the Link on Obs to your NWS site and the Storm Reports and Precip Analysis etc. Jim BC
ReplyDeleteOne word to describe tuesday/wednesday now: poof! Of course it was too good to be true
ReplyDelete:(
Rob just like the GFS has been accused of having a dry bias, would the GEM be guilty of having a wet bias? 9 out of 10 times the discussions EC puts out seems to always say that with the GEM, systems are too deep and QPF too high.
Hi Rob
ReplyDeleteTwitter is in use among many NWS offices...but not nearly as many people use it...more is seems for people to follow their latest celebrity tweets. The FB pages NWS offices started up are still in the experimental mode so could be some changes. I am a very chatty person, so I like to post updates a lot, whereas most are not. There are not rules per se and FB page isnt meant for real time weather info....more of a way hopefully for the public to communicate with us. HAM radio use seems to be waning big time...we get few reports that way.
I understand about behind the times in social networking. NWS is always that way...we have a bit more freedom than maybe EC but not much.
I hope all goes well up there and few people are affected by the staff cuts. I did read some comments on cbc.ca and winnipeg free press regarding the EC cuts, and I have to say, we have the same people here who dont have a clue how weather fcsts are done. I must say though weather here is much more at the fore-front of everyday life in terms of TV/radio,etc than up north. So have some of that to save us for when the cutting comes to the NWS, which will happen at some point due to our huge debt fiasco.
NWS has a freeze on pay raises for 3 yrs now...and may be extended.
Hi Rob again
ReplyDeleteI heard your office got permission to log onto NWS chat? is that true...would love to see you on. great way to share info across the border.
prev post from from me...
ReplyDeleteGood to see you back Dan GF!!
ReplyDeleteFor a while there I was wondering where you had gone!
Check in more often :-)
Hey, if you are wondering when we will see some storms it looks like a cold front will pass through on Tuesday morning allowing for some severe weather to occur, an MCS could form overnight in the manitoba escarpment and move west it will possibly evolve to cover a larger area hitting winnipeg at 06Z. I will know more tomorrow, when some more significant information becomes available.
ReplyDeleteAny Opinions on my outlook?
Dan..
ReplyDeleteSome of our staff use chat with the Edmonton office.. but I'm not sure if anyone uses it with NWS offices. I'll have to check.. but you're right, it would be a great way to communicate with you guys..
As for staff cuts, looks like EC's weather service will be pretty much spared, for now anyways. This latest announcement was mainly sunsetting certain projects, relocating some military staff, and not extending some term positions. The concern is that all federal departments are being asked to come up with scenarios on how they would operate with a reduced budget of 5-10%. This may mean some restructuring within EC down the road. But it's all speculation and heresay right now. For now, it's business as usual at EC's Winnipeg weather office..
NOTE: Wind data from my weather station will be unavailable for the next week or two (will be displayed as "0") I've moved the anemometer on to my roof, but I need more cable to hook it up to my main weather station in the backyard. I've ordered some extra cable, and as soon as it's in, I'll hook up the wind sensor. That should give me better wind data than I've been having so far (too sheltered by trees)
ReplyDeleteExcellent PASPC discussion this morning. Highlights the threat and potential downfalls really well.
ReplyDeleteSPC has southern Manitoba in a 30% hail, 30% wind, and 2% tornado risk tonight.
Rob -- glad to the impacts on the job front isnt severe. I recall our WCM mentioning a month or so ago that EC had given permission for Winnipeg to join NWS chat or at least to get the software to join.
ReplyDeleteDaniel P -- yeah been busy this summer with other projects. Winter is my time of the year so look for me more then. I am much more cold weather tolerant than heat.