If the past few days had you thinking that the summer of 2011 was over.. think again. Mid summer heat is set to return to southern Manitoba Monday and Tuesday with temperatures climbing well into the thirties. In fact, Tuesday could see some record highs across the Red River valley as temperatures soar into the 35-38C range. Winnipeg's record high Tuesday (23rd) is 36.7C from 1952, and it's possible we may come close to that mark. Conditions are favourable for very warm air to surface Tuesday as the Red River valley gets a southwest flow tapping a hot and dry airmass moving across the Prairies. Typically these are the set-ups that usually give Winnipeg and the Red River Valley its hottest temperatures. Winnipeg's hottest temperature so far this summer was a 34.4C reading on July 19th.. so Tuesday has the potential to be the hottest day of the summer. After a brief cooldown Wednesday, 30C weather is possible later in the week. More beach weather ahead as the fabulous summer of 2011 continues!
Tornado reported in Goderich Ontario this afternoon with extensive damage.. possible injuries.
ReplyDeleteHave to check out the weather network for more details!
ReplyDeleteMust have been a waterspout prior to hitting the town or did it form right over the them???
It was a tornadic supercell with a well defined hook that actually formed over Michigan and travelled across Lake Huron before directly hitting Goderich. It wasn't a waterspout which is usually weaker and thinner and dissiptes when it hits land. This was a solid tornado over water that continued inland. Click on my name for a video of the rain wrapped tornado over Lake Huron just before it's about to hit Goderich..
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link Rob. Gorgeous yet terrifying all at the same time.
ReplyDeleteAnd bring on the heat, I'm not ready for summer to end just yet.
Whew its already 32C outside, with a fairly low relative humidity. It makes it feel like arizona almost. Along with that EC is mentioning a risk for isolated supercell storms east of the manitoba escarpment with a cape at 2500-3000 J/KG , and an overnight risk of elevated thunderstorms in eastern manitoba with cape at an incredible 3000-3500 J/KG, higher than todays. Although looks like winnipeg will once again miss out on the big weather. I still wonder if we will hit 38C tomorrow. hmmm
ReplyDelete38C may be a bit of a stretch.. but 35C certainly looks possible. We've hit 33C today, and tomorrow 925-850 mb temps are 2-4C warmer, plus we get a downslope SW wind along with even drier dewpoints. That should get us to 35-36C before we start cooling off later in the day.
ReplyDelete34C wow!
ReplyDeleteWe continue to be plagued by that strange split in the upper flow (see the 200 - 500 hPa progged flow). Another disturbance will move across the northern plains tonite.. possibly strong enough to generate a weak LLJ out ahead of it. With best lift/forcing focused south of the border, not much support for any convection along the surface trough as it moves thru tomorrow morning. Once again, moisture and instability won't be lacking with some very high Td's in the 21-23 C range upstream over N Dakota. Winds have veered somwehat to the SW allowing for better mixing and a 34/16 t/td spread... however, winds should back to SSE ahead of the trough making for a very uncomfortable night.
ReplyDeleteCan someone please tell me why everyone looks at the 850 mb temps to determine the air temperature??? What is the significance???
ReplyDeletedaniel..
ReplyDeleteTemperatures at 850 mb (about 5000 ft above sea level) can be used as a good indicator of the potential high temperature for the day, assuming generally dry sunny conditions with no snow on the ground or low level cold advection. The assumption is that the air at 850 mb can be mixed down to the surface at a certain heating rate (known as the dry adiabatic lapse rate) which can be used to calculate the maximum temperature at the surface. At our elevation, you can generally add 10-14C to the 850 mb temperature during the warm season to get your estimated max temp. Today for example, our 850 mb temp got up to 21c and our high was 33.6C. There are other factors to consider, but this technique will give you a pretty good estimate of max temps within a couple degrees in normal situations.
In the winter with snow on the ground, this technique doesn't work since 850 mb temps won't mix down to the surface because of a low level inversion due to the cold surface. As a result, often in the winter you can have warmer air 5000 feet up in the air than at the surface.
Tomorrow, our 850 temps climb to 24C by afternoon .. which by adding 13-14C would give us a high of about 37-38C. NAM continues to indicate 38C for Winnipeg tomorrow (and up to 40C in parts of the RRV!), while the RGEM is giving us a more conservative 33C. Everything points to maximum diabatic heating for Winnipeg and the RRV tomorrow with very dry air moving in (afternoon dewpoints dropping into the single digits), a west to southwest flow (which can add a couple of degrees in downslope warming off the Pembina escarpment) and sunny skies. I think 35-36C looks like a good estimate as we tap some cooler air by late afternoon.
I know its super hot right now but I have noticed the geese are already gathering and flying in formation. Seems a little earlier than normal maybe they know something we don't
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's too hot for them.. they need to find some place cooler! :)
ReplyDeleteOur dewpoints have been steadily climbing this evening with those southerlies up the valley tapping more humid air from ND.. up to 21c now. A muggy night.. but dewpoints will be drying out noticeably by midday tomorrow as we get into a westerly flow of drier air.. with dewpoints dropping to 10C or lower by mid afternoon while temps climb into the mid 30s. It'll be hot.. but a dry hot..
Talking about downslope adiabatic heating (off Riding Mountain), McCreary was 24-25 C all night and still 25 this morning. Dauphin went down to 17 C and Wasagaming was down to 9 C!
ReplyDeleteWell, there's more than the downslope effect going on here, but the numbers are interesting anyway.
ReplyDeleteI was impressed by the temperature and humidity in the early hours of Tuesday morning. You'd think you were in Hawaii or something. It will be interesting to see how high today's temperature event will go!
ReplyDeletedid anyone notice the radar image last night on the weathernetwork? Turns out at 1 am it was so humid outside that the radar picked up what looked to be a line of storms inbetween brandon and portage la prairie, but it was actually the intense moisture content in the air. Kind of like ground clutter.
ReplyDeleteAny opinions?
I was also a little surprised on how quick the dewpoints climbed last night, it almost felt tropical.
Temperature at the airport as of 1pm...34.1. It looks as if we may come very close to that airport record today.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I noticed that Dave's station out here in S St Vital is reading at 36.7 as of right now...does the temperature at the airport tend to be lower than other regions of Winnipeg, or are these home stations a little less accurate?
Ive also been watching the updates on TV from the storm damage in goderich, amazing that there wasn't any high fatalities. It could of been a lot worse. I am very surprised how that storm mantained its strength over lake huron, must have been some very warm waters. Well We give you all the very best in rebuilding your beautiful town "Goderich".
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg airport up to 36.1C as of 2 pm with a 10C dewpoint.. sizzling! Feels like Las Vegas out there.. within 0.6C of breaking today's record high.
ReplyDeleteNot only is today the hottest day of the summer here, but it's also the hottest day in Winnipeg since June 17 1995 when we hit 37.8C.
Mike, you mean this radar image?
ReplyDeletehttp://imgur.com/083Ax
It's a combination of anomalous propagation (ground clutter) and how the radar ranging works. Quite typical of overnight and early morning conditions.
yes thats exactly it. Ive seen that kind of thing happen before and I will keep that in mind from now on.
ReplyDeleteA max of 37.2C at YWG airport as of 2:30 pm.. record high!
ReplyDeleteHmm that 36/10 at YWG seems a bit odd given the lite flow and higher dewpoints back to the west at Portage etc. Seems just like a pocket of well mixed air that suddenly surfaced at the recording station.. from an airplane landing or taking off? lol. Anyways, I would not be surprised if the temp went down and dewpoint up next hour.
ReplyDeleteFlow is weaker and front is slower than progged (almost seems to be washing out a bit).. Fargo still with a southerly flow and a Td of 22 C
Hottest day in Rob's Obs history! (since 2001) 37.9C as of 2:45 pm..
ReplyDeleteJon, Davis weather stations are very good and accurate stations, but temperature readings may be a degree or two different than official airport readings due to less ideal exposure, such as being in a more sheltered location with less ventilation. Generally though, I've found my site is within 1-2C of official readings.
Hottest temperatures today in the northern Red River valley which is benefitting the most from its lower elevation and dry soil conditions.. aiding in maximum adiabatic heating with a southwest downslope flow. Winnipeg at 37C is hottest spot in the country today.
ReplyDeleteIn order for us to hit 40C, we need today's set up, but with 850 mb temperatures of 27C or more.
Bubble of well mixed air with temps between 36-38 C over the northern RRV by looking at the agwx network.. still hasn't surfaced at the forks which is 'only' at 35 C (and is typically a warmer spot). Some higher level clouds moving in will likely halt the temp rise.
ReplyDeleteAll the moisture from last weeks rain is long gone... the drought continues
It is still pretty hot at the Forks Daniel, 36C.
ReplyDeleteYes its 36 C now. The point was mixing hasn't been quite as good there even though its often the warm spot.. obviously still hot though.
ReplyDeleteWOW!
ReplyDeleteOne for the record books!
Weather summary posted by Environment Canada for the record highs!
Is there potential for damaging wind gusts tomorrow in the Red River Valley ???
ReplyDeleteNo not really, looks like the brunt of the strong wind gusts will occur in the manitoba lakes area as strong NW winds aid in wave development with gusts as high as 70 Km/H. Not good for the shoreline or the cottages along the lakes region. There is a strong wind warning in effect for those regions. so your best best for seeing strong winds is near the lakes. Here in winnipeg today we may see the wind at 40 Km/h gusting to 60 today but not as severe here. Overall just a classic winnipeg summer breeze.
ReplyDelete