Sunday, August 07, 2011

Showers and scattered thunderstorms possible tonight.. cooler weather moving in Monday

A cold front over southern Saskatchewan will push eastward across southern Manitoba tonight. This front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms over western Manitoba this evening.. some possibly severe.. before they move into the Red River valley overnight. Rainfall amounts are not likely to be heavy as the band of showers will be fairly short lived and fast moving, but local amounts of 5-10 mm with up to 20 mm in thunderstorms are possible. The line of showers will move east of the RRV overnight with cooler weather on tap Monday along with clouds, brisk NW winds and a chance of showers. Temperatures are only expected to be in the low 20s over the next couple of days. Drier and warmer weather is expected Wednesday before another chance of showers Thursday. Overall, it looks like temperatures will be averaging near to slightly below normal over southern Manitoba over the next week or so. (Ignore the eternally optimistic warm and sunny Day 6-7 forecast.. it has a warm and dry bias and fails to capture cooling trends properly)

26 comments:

  1. I washed my car today, which is usually the signal to the weather gods to rain. So if all is equal, it should rain just as I leave the house to go to work in the morning.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'm getting kind of fed up with EC's severe weather warnings...there are cells in Eastern Saskatchewan right now. My friend just sent me a picture they took to their phone 5 minutes ago...a small rope tornado (touching the ground so yes, a tornado) just north of Canora, SK. Yet the cells in that region have no warnings whatsoever. If you would like to see the picture I can post it, also.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi:

    Can you post that picture of the rope tornado?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Did your friend bother to call EC to report this tornado?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Canora isn't covered by doppler radar (just plain'ol regular radar), so EC would not issue a specific tornado warning for that area unless they received a credible report.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I believe there's a watch for the Canora, SK region. That should be enough in itself to warn people of inclement weather. If you take the time to read EC's watches they happen to tell people to "remain on the lookout for severe weather". I don't think there's any need to start up EC "bashing" on this blog... take the time to actually get educated about severe weather and your surroundings and then call in the report instead of bashing EC.

    ReplyDelete
  7. No, he said no warnings whatsoever, which is true. However they do have a watch for that zone.

    ReplyDelete
  8. To be fair to EC, the latest model data available for Canora does not exactly suggest tornadic activity would be possible. Indices for 6 pm at Canora: Showalter -0.3, LI -5.1, CAPE 1080, and Storm Relative Helicity only 18. Apparently the model was wrong.

    Indices from the NAM model are only marginally more unstable. Helicity does have a little spike at 6pm to 111.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I'm hoping that those storms into western Manitoba will hold together all night, looking foward to a good light show!!!

    ReplyDelete
  10. Looking at the RADAR, Brandon is gonna get wacked with a CB in an hour!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Tornado warnings for southwestern Manitoba!!!

    ReplyDelete
  12. anonymous..

    I wouldn't get too discouraged with a non warning on a brief weak tornado out of Doppler radar range. Even if EC receives a tornado report, they may decide not to issue a warning based on the timeliness of the report, or signs that the cell may have weakened or dissipated, or the cell was in an environment that wasn't supportive of further tornado development. Tornado reports are taken seriously, but EC must also be careful not to issue a tornado warning if the threat is very low or over (cry wolf syndrome). If they think the tornado threat is still high based on a report, they will of course issue a tornado warning.

    So it is very important that people continue to send reports of severe weather to EC whenever possible to help them in their decision making process and post event analyses. The more information they have, the more effective warnings can be issued for everyone's benefit. Send reports of severe weather to storm@ec.gc.ca.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Doesn't look like this line will hold together all they way to Winnipeg. Strongest cells going to our southwest, and some to the north.. again! Hopefully some stuff fires up in between the two main areas as it moves across the RRV tonight..

    ReplyDelete
  14. Looks like these storms are moving along the border in kind of a slanted fashion, i also see that they are trying to spit up storms north of it and to the east of it. A very unstable environment so far, will see if we get a good lightshow to the south.I wonder will EC issue warnings around here?
    Best looking Night in years.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Rob I beleive some of the cells are giving their energy to the northern teir, as a squall line always does. So I assume we'll see something similar looking in the north as the south does. whats odd is that these look to be moving southeast when they are actually slanted and moving completly east because I don't see any southward progression in the south part just plain east. So they are moving toward us. 50-50 chance of either mising or hitting.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Thanks for the info Rob, you learn new things everyday.

    I was told the tornado went a few miles north of the town itself through a farmers property. No damage reported, though. Here are the pictures, as linked from her facebook profile.

    http://a3.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/284608_10150751051765265_655785264_19783523_5274133_n.jpg

    http://a8.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/281608_10150751051455265_655785264_19783519_5958720_n.jpg

    http://a6.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/185436_10150751041670265_655785264_19783399_8207914_n.jpg

    http://a3.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/282404_10150751041295265_655785264_19783397_3877971_n.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  17. Looks like those links are too long...here are shorter links to the images...

    http://tinyurl.com/3wekd8r

    http://tinyurl.com/3eabnpv

    http://tinyurl.com/42p4rwn

    http://tinyurl.com/3kxxqx4

    ReplyDelete
  18. I think you'll want to put a facebook icon to your site. I just bookmarked the blog, however I must complete it manually. Simply my suggestion.

    My site:
    Rachat de credit www.rachatdecredit.net

    ReplyDelete
  19. Thanks for the pics.. looks more like a funnel cloud than a tornado to me, but it may have touched the ground briefly. (Sometimes a funnel cloud may look like it's touching he ground, but it's actually obscured by hills and trees.)

    ReplyDelete
  20. Looks like the protective shield theory still lives on :o

    ReplyDelete
  21. Ooops we missed it again.
    The radar showed rain.
    But it split up again.
    Oh when will it rain?

    Bad Britney Spear lyrics aside, showers and thunderstorms once again bypassed Winnipeg and the northern RRV last night. Rain got as close to Winnipeg as Brunkild, Domain, Niverville and Steinbach with about 5 mm in those areas according to CWB mesonet, with 10-15 mm over parts of southern RRV including Morris, St Pierre and Dominion City.

    Another chance of showers for us later this afternoon with daytime instability in the dry slot, maybe even a thunderstorm to our east, but rainfall amounts won't be much as airmass becomes drier and cells move quickly.

    6 weeks and counting since Winnipeg Airport has had a rainfall of 5 mm or more (last time was back on June 22nd when they picked up 7 mm).

    ReplyDelete
  22. I give up!

    Time to install a comprehensive irrigation system. At least the Seine River is close, I can steal the water from there.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Being out in Red Lake this last weekend I was sure close to the forest fire action there. That smoke actually made it to Winnipeg last night!

    ReplyDelete
  24. It's ok Rob, .....you can just admit that you have a stockpile of Britney Spears cds :-)

    ReplyDelete
  25. I just don't remember anything about rain and radars in her songs though.....

    ReplyDelete
  26. Buffalo, I give up as well. If we don't get a good storm before the seasons over we will live until next year. If we get a storm even if its light in strength, I'll be happy I know you will too. Somehow we need to divert the water from lake manitoba to here in the peg using a irragation system as to what you were reffering to. It's Just Another stinker of a summer.

    ReplyDelete