Wednesday, November 17, 2010

First general snowfall on the way for southern Manitoba.. 10-15 cm expected Thursday into Thursday night

So goodbye to that snowfree ground.. snow is on the way for much of southern Manitoba Thursday as a fast moving Alberta clipper system spreads snow across the region. Snow will be moving into western Manitoba early Thursday morning and will spread east towards Winnipeg by early afternoon. Snow will become heavy at times with snowfall rates of 1-2cm/hr at times giving poor visibilities and road conditions. For Winnipeg, snow will become heavy by mid to late afternoon into the evening before tapering off after midnight so be prepared for a slower than usual commute home Thursday evening. General snowfall amounts of 10-15 cm are expected with this system along the TransCanada corridor, including Winnipeg, as well as Dauphin through the southern Interlake regions. (see snowfall warning for southern Manitoba) Easterly winds of 30 to 50 km/h will also accompany the snow resulting in local blowing and drifting snow. This will be the first general snowfall of the season for Winnipeg and the Red River valley so be prepared for wintery road conditions and slower travel times Thursday as this clipper system moves through.

39 comments:

  1. Thanks for the update!

    Tomorrow Winter Storm Warnings could be considered for areas outside the city especially if those winds do materalize!!

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  2. Spectacular sunrise !! What snow.

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  3. Checking the radar the snow is moving in really fast!

    Already snowing good in western Manitoba!

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  4. Brandon's visibility dropped in the past few mintues to 0.8 km in heavier snow!

    Regina is showing the same thing...so this system means business!!

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  5. Snowing in Portage now with visibility down to 1 mile.. with 2 cm of snow in Brandon as of noon. Radar shows leading edge of snow is now up to an Oakville-Carman line spreading east. Snow should be moving into Winnipeg from the west by 2 or 3 pm or so.

    Poll results are in.. the majority of respondents agree with the official forecast of 10-15 cm falling in Winnipeg with this system, with another large group thinking 5-10 cm. Poll ensemble average is 9.3 cm using midrange values. My snow ruler is ready to see who's right!

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  6. When does EC change over their radar to snow from rain

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  7. For the record, I picked 10 to 15cm, with my 'official guess' for an exact amount being 11cm in Winnipeg. My prediction for Steinbach is 5 to 10cm, with my guess for an exact amount being 7cm.

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  8. Daryl.. I believe it's Dec 1st. It's too bad they just can't show both rain and snow rates all the time so you can pick which one is more applicable (like on the U of M radar site) Dec 1st is way too late to be waiting for a snow rate on the Prairies..

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  9. Those sthrn MB roads are all reduced vis and slippery/drifting Hwy 1 & 2 or reduced vis seasonal 23
    from NS line Portge St/ Eustache to the west. North south rds are the same.

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  10. Even winter weather advisorys for areas of extreme northern North Dakota!

    This one snuck a little further south than first anticipated.

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  11. Snow is taking its time getting heavier in Winnipeg.. looks like some drier air is eating away at the snow as it moves over us. Down to 1/2 mile in moderate snow in Portage so things should start picking up here shortly. Given the later start time and rather modest snowfall amounts upstream, we may end up in the 5-10 cm range here in the city by morning..

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  12. Rob!

    You might have to put away the snow ruler and take out the caliper instead for snow measurements....lol!

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  13. Thnx 4 the suggestions..3.5 hours in fading light Eyeball measurement Brandon snow on ground 3 or 4 cms currently heavy blowing sideways. Austin to Brandon particularly bad driving cond's

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  14. Finally getting a bit of accumulation on the roads and sidewalks here in Winnipeg!

    Usually the roads are the last to get a coating of snow but not this time!!!

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  15. As of 7:00pm I have about a half a cm on the ground. That's the north side of the city at #8 and the Perimeter.

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  16. As of 7pm there is 1cm in Steinbach...our first centimetre of the winter!

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  17. The current snow to liquid ratio is right around 10:1. As of 7pm I had 1cm of snow on the ground and 1mm of snowfall (after being melted) in my manual rain/snow gauge.

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  18. Almost 9:00pm and about a 1cm here just north of the city. Snowing a little harder but a look at the radar shows a slightly heavier band overtop right now. Just judging by the radar it would seem a stretch to make it to 10cm let alone 5cm. Is it going to wrap around on us and hit us again?

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  19. Snow rates have really picked up here in Winnipeg!!!

    Now it's really looking like a winter wonderland....I mean wasteland!!!

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  20. The ground is white...so I'm happy!!

    Question is , with all those strong winds tomorrow will the lake effect machine kick in???

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  21. About 3-4 cm here in Charleswood as of 930 pm.. Looks like things will be tapering off after midnight so we'll probably end up in that 5-10 cm range, unless we get a good burst of heavier snow overnight..

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  22. Just under 4cm in Steinbach as of 10:30pm. We received about 2.5cm over the last 2.5 hours, so the snowfall rate has been fairly steady.

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  23. Some strong winds have entered Winnipeg!!!

    Quite the front!!
    According to Environment Canada 10 cm of snow fell in Winnipeg...so just enough for the warning!!

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  24. Storm total of 5cm in Steinbach. Liquid equivalent in the 3-5mm range (don't have exact liquid amount...my weather station reported 3.3mm, but it always underestimates frozen precipitation)

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  25. Temperature is falling like a rock this morning!

    -2 this morning when I got up.
    -7 two hours later!!

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  26. Welcome to winter! 9-10 cm here in Charleswood.. winds are starting to drift the snow now.

    Congrats to the 5-10 cm pollsters! (honourable mention to the 10-15 cm group) But the top prize goes to the poll ensemble average - 9.3 cm! Bang on!

    NAM had the right idea in showing the heaviest axis of snow north of the TransCanada.. but GEM was better with overall amounts south of the TransCanada.. so call it a draw model-wise. Now let's see how much we can get from Sunday's event.. (although it looks like this time Dan GF will get more of the fun!)

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  27. Portage La Prairie forecast calls for temperature drop to -10 this afternoon.... 8:00 am and their already there.

    This cold front is amazing!!!

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  28. You know it's windy when Rob is getting 42 km/h wind gusts in his back yard!

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  29. Neat ICON on the Obs site Rob. Did you use that before xmas last year.

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  30. Max Wind Gust of 69 Kph just south of St Norbert (GlenLea) this am. Many in 60s and one 71 Thornhill along the RRV, Pembina Valley and the 49th.

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  31. Will that snow now off Lake Manitoba reach Winnipeg today?

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  32. Jim
    Looking at the radar it would seem Winnipeg will be getting some snow from that lake effect band!!

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  33. Heavy snowsquall heading through the west side of the city right now!
    Winds are really whipping up the snow.

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  34. Sitting looking out the window of my office on the 7th floor of the Cancercare Manitoba building.....moderate to heavy snow falling at the moment.

    This should add a few more centimeters to the storm totals.

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  35. Blizzard like conditions at my place in west Winnipeg!!!

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  36. Whiteout on the westside of the city!!!

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  37. Lake effect snowbands off Lake Manitoba to our northwest giving occasional whiteouts in snow and blowing snow in the west end of the city.. I've picked up another 2-3 cm here in Charleswood this morning from off lake activity with a 300 degree wind off Lake Manitoba which is required for these bands to reach the city.

    Don't bother looking for these bands on conventional radar (such as what Weatheroffice shows), especially rain rate. Lake effect bands are typically low based convection, and conventional radar overshoots the returns so they're bascially invisible at these modes. They show up best on low angle Doppler. Will post a Doppler image later showing the snowbands coming off the lakes..

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  38. Ya know Rob!
    If you tried to explain to someone downtown that it is very heavy snowsquall in the west side of the city they think you would be crazy....
    The biggest snowsquall I've personally seen!!

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  39. Local Winnipeg webcams show the dramatic difference today between downtown and the southwest part of the city.. not a flake downtown, heavy snowsqualls on the Pembina/Bishop-Grandin webcam.

    This reminds of the snowsqualls we used to get down in southern Niagara off Lake Erie.. very light fluffy snow, easily blown around with gusty winds giving very poor visibilites at times.. then some sunny breaks, then heavy snowsqualls again. Love it.

    You'll notice the snow today is very light and fluffy.. quite typical for convective snow (such as lake effect snowsqualls) which are typically 20 or 30:1 snow:water ratios.. sometimes higher. I've received at least another 3 or 4 cm of new snow today, but it probably would melt down to 1 or 2 mm. Kind of ironic that lake effect gives drier snow, but it's all due to the convective process that forms the snowflake. That's why you can get a lot more snow in lake effect compared to the same amount of liquid water with a storm system.

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