Friday, November 05, 2010

Beautiful early November weekend on tap.. changes brewing for mid to late week

Looks like a beautiful first weekend of November shaping up as the fine late fall weather continues. Under sunny skies and diminishing winds, temperatures on Saturday will reaching the low to mid teens, some 10 degrees above normal values for this time of year. 15C temperatures are even possible in Winnipeg as our southerly flow shifts to the west in the afternoon (record high for November 6th in Winnipeg is 16.7C in 1975 - we may come close) The nice weather will continue through Sunday into early next week with double digit highs, before a change moves in by mid week. A low pressure system will be passing across southern MB late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing some rain that may change to wet snow as it moves out. Colder air will follow in the wake of this system for the end of the week with more seasonable highs near +2C along with occasional flurry activity. So enjoy the nice weekend.. you may want to get those Christmas decorations up while it's still nice!


  1. Right now it would seem that we will be brushed by that storm system this upcoming week!

    Still we might see a few cm of snow and temperatures near normal which will seem like a deep freeze compared to what we have been spoiled with!

  2. Bring on the colder weather....I shouldnt have to worry about going outside and sweating on Nov 6th. The EMCWF and GEM are closest in agreement for Wed-Thu versus weaker and farther west GFS. Transition to colder will take a while but I do believe it will come...

  3. Interesting localized temperature spike this morning in the downslope flow north of the Turtle Mountains around the Boissevain-Deloraine area. Temperatures there are already at 15-17C as of 10:30 am.. while it's 7-10C just east of the area. (click on my name for local temperature plot) Amazing what a local chinook-like wind can do off the higher terrain there!

  4. Looks like some records will fall today in Manitoba and Saskatchwan!

    Winnipeg will come close to a record today!

  5. Rob the 1-3 day QPF is showing 25 -30mm of pcpn over the next 3 days for most of South Central and SE Sask. and Southern MB with more on days 4- 5.

    Any comments?

    Will we see snow with this?

    PS that Chinook wind seems to be there or at least in Deloraine this am (13.4 at 1pm)

  6. Jim..

    Models have been fairly consistent in bringing the bulk of the precipitation with this next system over southeastern SK and western MB .. with most of the heaviest pcpn bypassing the RRV to the north and west. Localized amounts of 25 mm possible but generally 10-20 mm most areas Tuesday into Wednesday. Latest runs have been trending slower and warmer with this system, with snow less likely for RRV.. perhaps limited to higher elevations of western MB by Wednesday night. By the time it's cold enough for snow here on Thursday, most of the system pcpn will have pulled off to the northeast of us.

  7. This morning a look at enviroment canda shows them calling for snow on thursday. No amounts given but are showing 4 snowflakes on the graphics which usually means more than 5 cm. Any wisdom for thursday

  8. With the warm and soggy ground, and warm air temperatures it would be tough to accumulate anything more than 5 cm but a few cm is possible!

    All I can say is...finally some winter weather!!!

  9. Rob!
    Take a look at the 8:00 observation for Dauphin!

    "FOG bank near"
    How can the fog bank be near when their is 0.2 km visibilty???

  10. Re: Dauphin "fog bank"

    Interesting observation daniel.. I have no idea why Weatheroffice would code it like that, I'll have to look into that..

    As for Thursday's snow.. GEM/GLB indicating rain changing to snow over Winnipeg early Thursday morning as a secondary low deepens over SE MB tracking into the Interlake during Thursday. Depending on the timing of the transition, we could see a quick 2-3 cm of wet snow Thursday morning before the bulk of the system precip moves off to our north. Better chance for more significant snowfall to our west over higher terrain Wednesday night into Thursday.

  11. Could see a record high today in Winnipeg.. record for today is 14.4c in 1923. We have a good shot at seeing 14-15C this afternoon. We should break at least one record with this exceptionally nice weather!

  12. Spent most of last night after 8pm and this am til noon in that fogbank on hwy 1. Thickest was in the escarpment east and west of Carberry (Austin to camp hughes.) at 8pm last night and again at noon today.

    Night Visibility of well lit approaching vehicles was at times 5 seconds. Looking ahead was limited to two to three lane stripes . Today at noon oncoming vehicles were invisible and those in the same direction were almost as bad.

  13. Portage La Prairie's forecast is calling for 5- 10 cm of snow with the risk of freezing rain tomorrow night!!

    Winnipeg's forecast is calling for rain!
    Could this be a repeat of just a few weeks ago where the snow line never made to Winnipeg???

    1 C and snow on Thursday??
    I'm sure the forecasters will be ripping their hair out!!!

  14. Next week we may have to break out the heavy winter gear!

    Some indications of a major cold blast coming!

    Dan GF will be jumping for joy!

  15. Certainly a nice stretch of weather in Steinbach. I think we really got the best of this was 17C here on Sunday, 14C on Monday and 17C again today. Still 13C at my house as of 9:10pm this evening due to an increasingly strong SE wind.

  16. This Link or see below Nov 10-11 Incredible Extreme Weather Day
    is to a commemorative weather underground post written about the most severe upper midwest storms (Nov 10 -11) to affect the US.

    Scott did any of these reach Steinbach ?

  17. Looks like Regina got a good snow out of this storm!

    Here in Winnipeg I guess the temperatures will be a litte to warm for any accumulations!

  18. Don.. very interesting link on this historic date in weather. The Nov 11 1911 event is especially impressive.. several cities recording both a record high and a record low on the same calendar day! (Oklahoma City: 28C to -8C within 12 hours! Now that's a cold front!)

  19. Nice batch of convection popping up over southwest Minnesota complete with a few lightning strikes. This batch of precipitation will move due north and is progged to affect mainly SE MB into NW Ontario.. with the bulk of the precip occurring east of Winnipeg. Meanwhile the area of snow affecting eastern SK will lift into central MB tonight into Thursday. Bottom line.. Winnipeg may not see much in the way of rain or snow tonight into Thursday as the two main areas of pcpn bypass us. We will still likely see some light rain or drizzle tonight which will change to some wet flurries Thursday.. but at this point, it looks like Winnipeg may be spared from much in the way of accumulating snow tomorrow.

  20. And that cold front of ours creeping in from the west has reached the south end of lake Manitoba. Portage La Prairie is now posting 2.2 to 3.2 from West to East.

  21. I wonder if there could be any lake effect snow in Southern Manitoba today???

  22. Lake effect not likely today into tonight.. low level flow has too much of a westerly component which limits the amount of fetch over our north-south oriented lakes.

    Just a few melting flurries here in Winnipeg.. but more significant amounts to our west overnight. Some snowfall reports from this morning..

    Elkhorn......... 14 cm
    Rivers ......... 9 cm
    Gilbert Plains... 8 cm
    Mafeking......... 6 cm
    Belmont.......... 3 cm
    Snowflake ....... 2 cm
    Portage.......... 1 cm
    Holland ......... 1 cm
    Miami............ Tr-1cm

  23. Thanks for the Snowfall amounts. Tried to ID the amount for Brandon but all I see is light snow since last night total of .2cm CYBR Rivers at 8cm makes Brandon .2cm suspect..Do you have Brandon or an alternate source.?

  24. Don..

    Brandon airport recorded 3.2 cm of snow up to midnight last night, with little after that.


  25. thanks for great informations It's a wonderful

  26. Some people at work were telling me about a blizzard that hit Winnipeg in November 1986!

    There is very little information on the internet about this storm!

    Anyone have info such as snow amounts or winds on this storm???

  27. Re: Nov 7-8 1986 blizzard over southern MB. I remember it well. Classic Colorado low moving up through Minnesota into Lake of the Woods.. with Winnipeg and the RRV in the "sweet spot" to the west of the low. Snow moved into Winnipeg around 4 pm Friday Nov 7th.. picking up in intensity that night. By the next morning, we had a raging blizzard with NW winds gusting to 90 km/h and zero vsby. City was shut down.. as was much of southern Manitoba and NW Ontario. Conditions started to improve during the evening of the 8th after 35 cm of snow at Winnipeg airport.. one of the heaviest snowfalls on record for us. City was shut down for two days so crews could clear the massive snowfall and drifts. I was a junior forecaster at the Winnipeg weather office at the time and had to pull a 24 hour overtime shift since no one could get in! Memorable storm!

  28. I've always understood the most significant blizzards of recent decades (not sure about the city's early history) to be 4 March 1966, 7-8 November 1986, and 5-6 April 1997. Not sure I'd say we're "overdue" for a big one just yet, but you never know... ;)

  29. Nov 86 Charleswood, near Vasa Lund : north and south of Roblyn resembled an angry sea with snowdrifts sweeping in waves over every obstruction. Power lost on some homes/apts/. Walked directly over drifts/fences some as high as 6 feet. In November!!

    IMO 86 Did not have as great an impact on the city as 1966 but statistically similar. Could be because there was very little snow on the ground to blow and snow clearing equipment was much improved as was communications. In 1966 for 2 days the Eaton Store Telephone Switchboard became the emergency assistance line as virtually all transportation was halted and streets were impassable.
    Could also be because snow covered, not just fences but houses and buildings Drifts which buried Buses for 2 days, rose to the top of the 2 story CKY TV building at Polo Park. Near Hurricane velocity wind gusts to <120 will do that. In North n South Dakotas trains were buried by the 66 Blizzard as were X0,000 livestock.
    1997 Blizzard had more rain/sleet than the others and less wind power . Impact was watched 10 days later on CNN in Grand Forks and then later in Winnipeg with the Flood of the Century.

    There are books and several web resources covering the 66 blizzard one by the former Senior Met. from Grand Forks.. It was just one of three winter curses bestowed on Winnipeg with record cold and one of the last pre floodway floods.

  30. Rob!

    Looks like we might need the heavy parka by Wednesday timeframe!

    Also with some light snow it will feel and look like winter!!

  31. feeling very antsy regarding the lack of cold so far....I do see much colder weather to come but without any real snowcover outside of western Manitoba and Sask that got some a few days ago how cold can it get. I would like at least a few inches of snow then it can drop and stay well below zero.

  32. Dan GF!
    Snow all around you now!
    Twin Cities getting a massive snow of 9 inches today!


  33. Thanks for the sympathy Daniel P...

    Talking about that storm in Minnesota...I am working mid shifts currently and during the morning hours of Saturday thunderstorms formed in the Fairmont to Mankato areas of south central Minnesota. Intense winds were brought down to the sfc...incredible winds. I chatted with WFO MPX and they believe they are legit as winds at 1000 ft were 50+ kts. But the 1555z obs at KMKT (Mankato) was 26G70kt M1/4sm and in Fairmont MN (KFRM) they just prior to 12z had wind gust to 64 kt. A family friend has parents who live in that area and trees are down all over with power out. Can't imagine 70kt wind in a snowstorm....we have had 50 mph wind here in GF but that is all.