Friday, November 19, 2010

Winter arrives in southern Manitoba.. more snow on the way Saturday night into Sunday..

An Alberta clipper brought the season's first widespread snowfall over much of southern Manitoba Thursday into Thursday night, including Winnipeg where about 10 cm of snow was reported by Friday morning. General snowfall amounts of 10-15 cm were recorded mainly along and north of the TransCanada into the Interlake regions with 20-30 cm over the Riding Mountain Park area. Behind the system, cold northwest winds produced snowsqualls off Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg Friday, bringing additional snow and poor visibilities southeast of the lakes (see Doppler image left) In Winnipeg, the squalls off Lake Manitoba mainly affected the southwest portion of the city with another 3-5 cm of new snow and whiteout conditions at times. Things will clear up tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.. and that will mean a very cold night on the way as temperatures drop into the minus 20s for the first time since last winter.

After a break Saturday, it looks like another general snowfall is on the way Saturday night into Sunday as a storm system tracks across North Dakota and spreads another wave of snow over southern Manitoba. This system has the potential to produce another 5-10 cm of snow across Winnipeg and the Red River valley with up to 15 cm possible along the US border and SE Manitoba. Like it or not.. winter has arrived in southern Manitoba!

Snowfall reports past 24 hours..

Winnipeg.... 10 cm
Portage....... 10 cm
Brandon...... 10 cm
Dauphin ..... 17 cm
Gilbert Plains..... 20 cm
Rossburn .... 28 cm /Riding Mountain Park/
Wasagaming... 15 cm
Roblin ......... 12 cm
Rivers.......... 11 cm
Beausejour..... 12 cm
Pinawa......... 12 cm
Arborg......... 17 cm
Winkler........ 7 cm
Morden....... 5 cm


  1. Impressive lake effect snowbands off Lake Manitoba keep generating snow and poor visibilities to southwest Winnipeg.. I've picked up another 4 or 5 cm today on top of the 9 last night. Things should wind down this evening as high pressure builds in from the west..

    Then we turn to the next event Saturday night into Sunday. Models have trended a little further north with this next wave, which should put the heaviest axis along the Canada-US border or over the southern RRV/SE MB. General amounts of 5-10 cm likely with 15 cm along the heaviest axis. How much will fall in Winnipeg? Let us know in the new snow poll!

  2. We went from Weather Boredom to weather overload within 48 hours!!

    Tonight's overnight low could be colder than -20 C

    With vaules as cold as -25 this morning in Saskatchwan and that airmass over us now!
    I think -24 C for Winnipeg airport tomorrow morning!!

  3. Having officially asked if anyone else voted more than 30cm this weekend, I've made up the difference from the first poll (20) by selecting 10 to 15 this time. 30 for the whole thursday to weekend end.

    Jesters award... drum roll please and I thought i'd win with the 30 comment but ...

    so far a tie to the comments on thursday and it seems so long ago
    "what Snow"
    "Get out your Caliper"

    I'm sure we will all make many more.

  4. What are the water temperatures of these lakes now and when do you think they are going to freeze up?

  5. That lake effect band just won't die away. At least it's out of the Winnipeg area and into the Elie area!!

  6. Lake effect clouds still keeping us warm at 'only' -11 C while its -23 C at Regina and -20 C at Brandon. The sudden onset of bitter cold arctic is the most distasteful part of living here.. I never get used it

  7. Rob!

    What are the latest model runs showing in terms of amounts for tonights/sundays event???

  8. Those lake effect clouds certainly saved Winnipeg and the Red River valley from a frigid night last night keeping temperatures in the -12 to -15C range. Clouds cleared out just west and northwest of the city allowing temps to drop to the -20C mark as close as Elie and St Eustache..

    Then there was western MB, where temps bottomed out at a way-too-early -30C mark in the Roblin/Swan River areas.. Ouch..

  9. daniel..

    Models still calling for a general 5-10 cm across Winnipeg and the northern RRV, with up to 15 cm possible over the southern RRV and SE MB. One thing to consider is that although the main surface low is moving south of us, we have an inverted trof poking into southern MB with this event, which sometimes can surprise us with enhanced snowfall amounts further north along the trof. We shall see. FWIW... latest blog poll ensemble is 7.7 cm for Winnipeg.

  10. Snowfall warnings for area's along the international border.

    Must keep an eye on things to see if heavier bands make it further north. If we make it on the high end of the forecasted totals here in Winnipeg then that will be quite the snowcover here!!

  11. Seems our habit of picking up a lot of Precip in short bursts hasn't been interrupted by anything so trivial as a -20C weather change. Current predictions plus last thursday friday accumulations produce a minimum of 40 to a Max of 63 cms of snow. We are well on our way to challenging the 1955 Nov monthly record.(this week?)

    In one week Robs 9 thursday Friday,
    Squalls for another 5 on Friday,
    plus (Ensemble 7.7) 10-15 tonight thru Sunday,
    plus TWNs 16 to 26 Tues/Wed/Thursday.

  12. People who run their own snow clearing business will be kept very busy the next while!!

  13. Situation seeming to unfold again with the NE wind causing to help keeping the snow delayed for a while!

    Still snowing at a good clip in North Dakota and only a of matter time before it arrives here.

    Latest GFS showing more of a major storm for North Dakota on Wednesday poking into Manitoba!!

    We went from snow drought to snow uforia just like that!!

  14. Daniel brings up an interesting prospect with the potential for another snow storm on Wed-Thurs. 18Z GFS, 12Z GEM and Scribe all showing fairly significant accumulations (10 to 20cm). ECMWF is showing next to nothing, but it is the only model in that camp. Ensemble model not very aggressive either...but this situation will bear watching nevertheless.

  15. Hi everyone!
    If you want a good radar to use right now that gives a good perspective on the northern plains that shows where the snow is!
    click on the storm tracker icon and then from there you can go to the regional doppler or grand forks view for a close up!!

    Does not really show southern Manitoba very well but gives you an idea of what's heading here!

  16. Thanks for the Tip Daniel..and for those nighthawks who use the channel changer WDAZ (ABC) runs many of those from 1:30 to 4:30 on Channel 13 on MTS Cable. They rotate every few minutes thru many of those those Graphics

  17. 7cm so far in Steinbach. Looks like at least a couple more cm possible today.

  18. Is that ICE on Lake Winnipeg in ROBS Gimli WEBcam?

  19. 7 cm of fresh powder in Charleswood as of 8:15 am and still snowing.. 20 cm snowdepth on the ground. X-country skiers and snowmobilers must be loving this! A winter wonderland morning with nice gentle flakes falling down, no wind and a balmy -8C.. if only our winters could be like this all season long!

  20. Rob interesting post & image on Nov 19 2008 of the lake Winnipeg Freezeup. Unfortunately the link for MODIS sattelite is no longer valid

    Do you have a new link?

    Post and graphic on my name or

  21. Don.. yep, looks like ice is starting to form in the harbour and along the shores.. freeze-up is starting!

    Snowfall roundup as of 8 am this morning..

    Miami........ 12 cm
    Winkler...... 10 cm
    Snowflake.... 10 cm
    Steinbach ... 7 cm
    Winnipeg .... 7 cm /my obs/
    Oakbank ..... 6 cm
    Pinawa ...... 6 cm
    St Labre ..... 4 cm
    Portage ...... 3 cm

    Looks like a few more hours of snow this morning before it starts tapering off.. we'll likely end up around the 10 cm mark or so by the time it's over.

  22. Don.. no I don't have the updated link to the MODIS imagery.. I'll have to get back to you on that.. (if anyone knows it, please post)

  23. Looking at the webcams this morning seems Grand Forks got a nice coating of snow (whew....Hey Dan GF)!

    I'm sure he has his eyes set on Wednesday's system!!!

  24. Here are a few totals of interest down here in northern ND...

    I called PAASPC in Winnipeg with these as well...

    Sarles ND border station south of Pilot Mound 6.5 inches....
    Rolla ND 7 inches
    Bottineau ND 7 inches
    Minot ND 6 inches
    Cavalier-Neche ND 5.5 inches
    Grand Forks had about 2 (but promising for wed night-thu).

  25. MODIS imagery:

  26. Thanks Scott!

    Noon yesterday shows Southern Basin up to Wpg Beach/ Patricia Beach.

  27. Hudson Bay appears to be Ice along the MB and ON SW shoreline as well.
    Jeff Masters Blog Friday commented on the absence of ice at this time of year (a month late) and the effect on NAO and Eastern NA weather. More tomorrow promised by his blog

  28. Rob warned us about the "TROUGH" of low pressure!

    Now snowfall warnings issued for the city and surronding areas!!!

    Man....these troughs always get us.

  29. Wow is that for real. Radar made it look like it was moving off. Is it now going to spin back around. The crews were getting ready for a 2:00pm start for snow clearing now I wonder if I should be holding them off. I just can't see another 10-15cm

  30. Thanks Scott/Don for the MODIS images.. I'm surprised how ice covered Lake Manitoba is given the lake effect we got off it Friday. I suppose the ice is fairly thin and there's still moisture flux off the lake, but still surprising. As the ice thickens, that will end the lake effect season off Lake Manitoba, and soon off Lake Winnipeg..

  31. Rob!
    Can I change my guess for the snow

  32. Daryl.. I think you're right.. looks like an area of "wrap around" snow coming into Winnipeg from the west.. may give us that 10-15 cm after all!

  33. Exactly 10cm of snow in Steinbach as of 11am. As mentioned, precip is now wrapping around, so another 2-4cm certainly possible.

    Liquid equivalent of that 10cm is 6.9mm, making for a ratio of about 15:1.

  34. Judging by the movement of the system I'm thinking that most of that snow will fall in the next 2.5 hours in the Winnipeg area. What do you think? I'm hoping.

  35. Daryl.. that's about right. Heaviest wrap around stuff is moving through the west end of the city now and should be pulling off to the northeast over the next hour.. then it should pretty much over by 130-2 pm or so.

    I've had another 5 cm since this morning, 12 cm storm total so far.. maybe another 1-2 cm before it's done. A beautiful snow.. dry and fluffy.. easy to shovel.. and very picturesque.

  36. Is that Lake effect snow a major heat transfer?

  37. ROB Comments one day about the poll ensemble being a great forecaster (9.3).. right on. Next poll comments, the "trough and FWIW poll results" in the same post.
    Thanks we were well warned.

  38. Now that today's snow is over, I guess it is time to start focusing on the potential for more snow on Wednesday and Thursday. Most models showing 10 to 15cm for all of Southern Manitoba, with the potential for 20cm closer to the US border. The main concern is what the wind will do. If the storm tracks far enough north, then we could be in for blizzard conditions on Thursday morning.

  39. Ended up with 12 cm today.. congrats to the 10-15 cm pollsters! (for the record, I chose 10-15 cm for Thursday's storm, and 5-10 cm for this latest one) That makes 26 cm since Thursday night, with another 5-15 cm possible Wednesday-Thursday. Another snow poll on the way.. 3rd in a week! (If this was the east coast, they'd be calling this "snowmageddon". Around here, we call it "winter" :)

    Most models showing the axis of heaviest snow from Wednesday's storm falling across ND into nrn Minn and NW Ontario.. although southern MB is certainly in line for more snow. As Scott mentioned, wind will become a factor by Thursday which could result in greater impacts than the actual snowfall amounts. Will be interesting to see how this next one unfolds..

  40. 00Z GFS shows an all-out blizzard for Southern Manitoba on Thursday. 15 to 20cm of fresh snow, along with winds of 40km/h gusting to 60km/h, or higher. NAM shows similar snowfall amounts, but locates the heaviest bands in different areas. Things are getting more interesting by the model run!

  41. OK....
    Who mad mother Nature mad....LOL

    I think that we could by the end of the week could be getting close to almost half of all the snow we had last one week!!!

    Does anyone have the maximum snow depth for Winnipeg for this time of year????

  42. Latest ensemble gives a 90% chance of at least 5mm in Winnipeg with the next storm and a 100% chance of the same amount in the Southern RRV and SE MB. There is a 60-70% chance of more than 10mm in the Southern RRV and SE MB. GFS, ECMWF, and GEM all show 10 to 20cm of snow in all of Southern Manitoba based on the 00Z/06Z runs. Heaviest accumulations look to be near the International border, where 20cm is most likely.

  43. Rob!
    You recall last year's blizzard!

    Last year we had some snowpack with a little fresh snow was enough to cause blizzard conditions in the city!

    This year.
    10 cm of FRESH powder. Could be another 10 or more. Now throw those winds on top of that....Blizzard????

  44. 1955 holds the records. Totals of 80.3 cms Snow and a carry over of 50 on ground at the end of the month.

    This year seems to be similar although two weeks late starting.

    In 1955 9cm of snow on Oct31 Started the month off with 8 cm on the ground Nov1. Despite some melting and rain that first week new snow 23.3cm on Nov 05 to 8th (very similar to the fine lake effect snow we rec'd this weekend left 20cm on the ground by the 9th of the month. Another 28.3 cms the next week left 26cms on the ground by the 16th. A final 23.9 cms fell that 3rd week (and Wpg was lucky as much more across western Canada from a blizzard. Peak snow on ground of 55cms by Nov 22nd.

  45. I don't know if Lucky would be the word
    Winds gusted over 30kpmh on 28 days.In fact wind gusts exceeded 50k on 18 days over 60k on 13 days. Two days of 77k and peaking at 82 K with all the snow on the ground
    Only 3 days of less than 31K winds left Winnipeg residential and many regional streets virtually impassible for the entire winter.

  46. Seems like that system stateside might brush southern Manitoba with some more snow!!

    Fargo is getting slammed with heavy snow this morning!
    Lucky we miss this system or we could have been buried under a moutain of snow!!

  47. Airport low of -21 last night We didn't see anything below -12..Is that a West Winnipeg thing.

    Confirmation from Robs webcam page showing snow today, dusting here all morning.

  48. latest report is 8 inches in Fargo ....

    For wed-thu....I did see internal hpc snow graphics and they going with ECMWF (which they often do) and they have 8+ inches of new snow thru thursday aftn over nearly all of southern manitoba and nrn nd...

  49. hi Dan GF!
    What are you thoughts on blizzard conditions for this next system???

    Maybe 8 inches of new snow!!!

  50. Is it me or does that system south of the border seem to be heading due north for Southern Manitoba??

  51. Hi

    For the next system...I do think winds will be an issue... but so much depends on how wrapped up it gets and where. If the storm wraps up more in north central or northeast MN...then highest winds on the southwest side of the system may impact more central ND into SD... but I do think regardless there will be some wind Thursday over our area...just how strong. will not take much with the fluff out there.

    Latest spotter report in south Fargo of 11.5 inches...officially 10.1 at noon.... snowing now in Grand Forks I would expect 3-4 inches here of fluff.

  52. ahhh.. la nina

    Edmonton -25 C
    Regina -20 C

    Meanwhile temps across the midwest from northern illinois to the south shore of Lake Erie are in the lower twenties with dewpoints in the midteens in some cases... wouldn't it be nice if in just one la nina winter we could get on that warm side of that temp gradient? lol

  53. Il semble que vous soyez un expert dans ce domaine, vos remarques sont tres interessantes, merci.

    - Daniel