Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Warm and muggy weather for Canada Day..

Things will be getting noticeably warmer and more humid in southern MB Thursday ahead of a weak area of low pressure moving in from southern Saskatchewan. In advance of the warm air, there is a chance of some thunderstorms over southern MB tonight into Thursday morning with some warm frontal elevated convection that is expected to fire up tonight. Most of this activity however is expected to push through the Interlake. Then we should get a break in precipitation through much of the day, with conditions getting noticably more warm and humid by the afternoon as temperatures climb towards the 30C mark in Winnipeg, and dewpoints near 20C.. giving humidex values of 35-38C. This will be the warmest day of the year so far for us so be prepared for warm and muggy weather for Canada Day activities since we haven't acclimatized to it yet this year. Additional thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon/evening as a weak trough pushes through that could trigger some locally heavy thunderstorms given the muggy conditions. All in all.. a summerlike start to July!

43 comments:

  1. Hopefully we will hit our first 30 C of the year but.....
    Will to much cloud cover ruin our chances????

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  2. A few showers off to our west may clip Winnipeg this morning, but then we should break into sunshine for the afternoon with increasing heat and humidity. Here's hoping for our first 30C of the season!

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  3. Chris - Windsor Park9:00 AM, July 01, 2010

    After comparing long range forecasts from EC and Accuweather, they both agree on a wetter than normal July. However, Brent Anderson from AW predicts a cooler than normal July while David Phillips from EC is predicting a warmer than usual July.
    Any reason why these two forcasters have stark differences in opinion?
    Happy Canada Day everyone!

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  4. Notice that EC's long-range forecast is accurate less than 40% of the time in our region.

    RUC is predicted the 90F (32C) isotherm will stretch along the RRV by 4pm today. Combined with tds forecast to be in the 20 to 23C range, we could get humidex values of 38 to 42. Humidex advisory may be necessary today if that is the case.

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  5. I see Environment Canada has changed there forecast again to account for the showers this morning!!!

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  6. Warming up rapidly over the southern RRV where they've cleared earlier.. up to 26C already in Carman and 29C in Winkler as of 11 am according to the MB ag network.. Dewpoints climbing rapidly as well with values of 20-22C over the south. A hot and sticky day coming up! FYI.. a quick way of calculating humidex.. add the air temperature and dewpoint then subtract 13.

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  7. Rob!

    I noticed that there is a complex of storms in Western Manitoba that seemed to head to the north but are now heading due east!

    Could that clip Winnipeg this afternoon?????

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  8. Humidex advisory for Steinbach, Morden areas now. Been a long time since we've had one!!

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  9. I'm quite surprised that there isn't even a humidex in the forecast for Winnipeg. If the dewpoint isn't going to drop much, and we do get to close to 30, then the humidex is going to be at least 37° this afternoon; definitely worth a mention.

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  10. Well I stepped outside in the SAUNA and now came back indoors!

    Dewpoint is now 22 C in Winnipeg which is really what were not accustomed to!!!

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  11. Some cloud coming from ND, maybe it will cool a little. Ya, a sauna! =Þ

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  12. Yes!

    I see Rob's weather station has surpassed 30 C!!!

    Now has the airport????

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  13. Steamy out there.. 24C dewpoint at my site right now.. that's tropical. Note that my weather station records the American "heat index" which is a different calculation than the Canadian "humidex"

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  14. There should have been humidex advisory for Winnipeg today. The Forks has had humidex at 40 for 3 hours in a row so far...

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  15. WOW!

    Severe thunderstorm watch issued for Winnipeg and then 3 hours later canceled!!

    OK.........I wonder why it would be issued in the first place???

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  16. It's official!!!

    First 30.0 C day in Winnipeg!!!!

    Finally.....

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  17. Wow, getting enough of Saskatchewan hogging all the storms!! All week.... When will we get our fair share?

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  18. Jewels!

    Manitoba might get there fair share very soon!

    Some very severe storms moving into western Manitoba as we speak!!!

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  19. Has there been an update to the EC 730pm Tornado warning for Langenberg SK (Churchbridge) just west of Russell MB

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  20. Severe TS Warning issued for that area of MB at 9pm

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  21. A high of 30.2C yesterday at Winnipeg airport, our first official 30C of the year. Forks was even hotter with a high of 31.6C. Looks like a repeat today, after we get rid of these morning clouds and showers/tstms. At least today we'll have more of a southerly breeze that will make things a little more bearable than yesterday..

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  22. Incredible pictures out of Yorkton (click on my name for link to CBC article)!

    Considering the proximity of Yorkton to the border, did any locations in western MB pick up similar amounts?

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  23. How does the risk for storms look for tonight and tomorrow? Doesn't look like EC is calling for ANY storms (other than boring 30% tomorrow). To me, it always seems like a waste to not get storms after a heat spell like this!!

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  24. Today's sounding for YWG showed a mega cap over us...convective temp somewhere in the mid to upper 40's...

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  25. As CS said, the massive cap over Winnipeg today will inhibit any surface-based convection. Dry air from 900-700mb will be moving over the Red River Valley tonight from Montana (see GGW sounding) which will also inhibit any nocturnal convection.

    Vort center from Idaho/Montana continues to dig SE, shifting synoptic cold front eastwards. Several impulses will eject from the base of the SW trof and ride up along the jet. These should provide additional lift along the cold front.

    So for Winnipeg, I'd say best chance for convection is tomorrow as the cold front approaches. We may get nothing, however if enough lift is present to initiate convection early enough in the day, it could easily be a severe weather day in the RRV with dew points hovering around 22-24°C.

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  26. I wonder if those storms that are developping near the border will break through that cap!? Might have to watch those storms closely. Could get interesting...

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  27. Wow.. now that's more like summer!

    I wouldn't totally discount possibility of at least some scattered cells developing on nose of LLJ and edge of cap (12 C 700 hPa temps) before best forcing moves east after around 4 am.

    Uncertainty tomorrow regarding frontal timing and debris cloud in morning. Northern stream trough appears to kick front across our area by early afternoon. I think we will see scattered severe storms particularity if front hangs up a bit. Pretty good deep shear, but surface flow not very backed ..unless that southern stream disturbance can turn flow more SE ahead of surface trough.

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  28. Nice bow echo north of Winnipeg. RADAR indicates winds of 70kts being possible.

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  29. It looks like it going to rock and roll for a while this morning

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  30. WHOA!

    Where did all these storms.....

    I went to bed thinking it would be sunny this morning!!!!

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  31. Take a look at the change in forecast as well.

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  32. Weather warnings and watches popping up now. Looks like EC is scrambling on this one.

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  33. I have never seen storm motion this fast before!!!

    These storms are just hauling this morning!!!

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  34. Looks like Winnipeg will get a storm this morning...the question is how severe will it be?

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  35. Could I ask if theres any toronado threat for winnipeg this morning?

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  36. No tornado threat...this is elevated convection. Tornadoes need surface based convection, which certainly isn't happening given the huge cap. Main threat is large hail and strong wind gusts. Rain probably isn't an issue with the quick storm motion, but can never be ruled out.

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  37. The lightning detector is off the charts this morning showing 832 strikes!!!!

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  38. Rob!

    What is your take on this afternoon???

    Any chance of tornadoes here, like in Saskatchewan the past few days!!!

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  40. Daniel P!!!!!

    The tornado threat is nonzero today!!!!!
    The only question is, where will the front be by prime time?????!?!?!?!?!?!?!

    Will you be out there chasing?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!11

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  41. I don't understand the protective sheild around winnipeg. I was tracking s storm from north dakota that drifted towards winnipeg. And we really didn't see anything except lightning and light rain. Heck winnipeg wasn't in a warning but they were all around us! Its like the cell rounded us !! I don't get it.

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  42. Wow, I wonder what would happen if there was a very severe thunderstorm hitting the city while the concert for the Queen is happening at the Forks!! That would be a disaster with the thousands of people there!. =Þ

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