Saturday, July 03, 2010
Severe thunderstorms likely this afternoon/evening..
A slow moving cold front crossing southern MB today will be the focus for severe thunderstorm development this afternoon into this evening. Storms are expected to fire up over the Red River valley this afternoon moving eastward toward the Ontario border by evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat, with isolated tornadoes possible with stronger storms. Stay tuned..
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If the threat is only for the SE, why is there a watch for the entirety of Southern Manitoba?
ReplyDeleteTornado Watch upgraded from severe thunderstorm watch for City of Winnipeg/RRV/SE MB!
ReplyDeleteWhen should this weather threat end? EC said sometimes this evening is this true and can winnipeg really see a tornado?! really crazy situation!.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Rob's analysis that isolated tornadoes are possible hence the watch. However the low level flow is not backed enough and best shear lagging somewhat behind the front for this to be a big tornado day in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteFront is actually already thru YWG with a lite west flow so threat is likely over locally. Yet again, most of the city saw absolutely nothing... my area of city was not affected by the elevated storms and the cap seemingly has held strong against surface based storms.
Winds have shifted as Daniel has mentioned...I don't know about tornadoes anymore for the RRV...maybe East near the Ontario border.
ReplyDeletehttp://img59.imageshack.us/img59/1605/smanitoba.gif
ReplyDeleteWorryingly, while the winds may have shifted at the airport, it's only because the warm front is sitting smack dab in the middle of the city...
Agreed with buffalo, some sort of a front has to be within the city.
ReplyDeleteWinds around this city:
Airport: Westerly
The Forks: ESE
St. Vital: ENE
@Anonymous (at 2:56)
ReplyDeleteHighly unlikely, but they're just mentioning the possibility around the general area, so it doesn't mean that there will be a tornado smack-dab in the middle of the city.
Thanks everyone for your answers I really appreciate it!
ReplyDeleteShowtime...
ReplyDeleteSo guess the tornado risk is know a litle east of winnipeg now
ReplyDelete. Nothing going on in the west.
Could those storms just west of Winnipeg go tornadic also and right-turn into the city?
ReplyDelete@Jon
ReplyDeleteMaybe not, maybe so... this storm's still developing, so it's basically a wait-and-see scenario at this point.
I would be very concerned about the storms just west of the city. They're sitting on an organized boundary with much greater deep shear than the storm heading towards Steinbach.
ReplyDeleteI don't know but the storms west of the city, they don't look that strong at least thats how the EC rader looks like . They have been like this for about half an hour. The one in steinbach looks pretty violent!
ReplyDeleteoh theres just been a warning for them so I guess im wrong... oh well
ReplyDeleteFront is slow moving but making eastward progress. The cells west of the city were triggered by outflow from Steinbach cell along wind shift line. The post frontal line still struggling against cap. If those cells weaken.. best chance for rain would be well behind the front in the cooler mid level air and along the trough as LLJ ramps up tonite (off to our SE).
ReplyDeleteMan, I sure hope Scott's prepared for all this!
ReplyDeleteI can begin to hear thunder and see the sun peeking out to the west: not as severe as Environment Canada expected it to be? I don't see any rotation or funnels, but I'll try and get a pic of the storm after it's passed (if it holds up for that long anyways).
ReplyDeleteEither way where gonna get a update from him soon probably lol. That cell is a monster.
ReplyDeleteWhat a ride...
ReplyDeleteWatched that cell develop for an hour or so. Looked pretty poor at first, but then it really got going.
Storm came over the tree line and there sat a wall cloud. Wasn't overly impressive, but it was there nonetheless. It developed and dissipated a number of times. Never saw a funnel cloud, but I didn't see it at its most intense point. Hopefully I'll have some pictures.
Had to abandon the storm once it started to hail. Couldn't move back farther, because the city of Steinbach was in my way. The east side of Steinbach is forecast. Impossible to tell whether or not a funnel cloud or even tornado formed...will have to wait and see if there are eye witness accounts.
The sun's starting to peek out here, my camera's battery died, so no pics today.
ReplyDeleteOnly the far SE part of the city will be affected by this line... it hardly rained north and west of the downtown area.
ReplyDeletePS.. probably a good photo op for us in Winnipeg behind the cells with the sun setting.
ReplyDeleteThis storm's now severe warned for the city. I wouldn't be as concerned for the NW/NE part of the city, but the SW end should keep an eye on this one: it's your turn now.
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ReplyDeleteCould anyone tell me were the main front is now and when this thundertorm threat will die down ? thanks
ReplyDeleteThe storm wasn't very strong in south Winnipeg, from my perspective. Moderate rains, a brief heavy downpour, not worthy of a warning. I don't know about the rest of the south end though. 6 mm here, bringing my grand total today to 26 mm.
ReplyDeleteI got only a few heavy downpours in my area and a little thunder. thats all. I notice that theres a heavy band of rain showers in west manitoba, could they turn into severe at all?
ReplyDeleteSOFTBALL size hail reported with that storm that is still going strong in eastern Manitoba!
ReplyDeleteTruly Epic!!
I thought we were going to have a cool front move by that was going to push the humidity out. It's still hot and humidity is higher than ever. What's the story?
ReplyDeleteDaryl--it's on its way.
ReplyDeleteOh and yes, although the relative humidity is higher, the absolute humidity (a real measure of humidity) is the same. It will fall overnight.
ReplyDeleteThe severe thunderstorm watch has now ended, right?
ReplyDeleteWhy does the weatheroffice site still show the watches in effect? Aren't they supposed to have updated it by now? Looks like somebody fell asleep...
It's a technical issue with Weatheroffice . This is a problem when a tornado watch is changed to a severe thunderstorm watch. For some reason, Weatheroffice doesn't fully recognize the change and maintains the severe thunderstorm watch even when it's ended. This is a known problem which hopefully be fixed soon. In the meantime, I see the watch has finally been removed from the website as of 6:35 am.
ReplyDeleteokay, what a strange error even so, haha. perhaps it's something the weatheroffice webmasters/people in charge of operating the website need to fix?
ReplyDeleteThanks Dave
ReplyDeleteI guess I just needed to be a little more patient. Quite a bit more comfortable outside today.
Click my name for pictures from yesterday's storm near Steinbach.
ReplyDeleteA few thoughts...
ReplyDeleteAmazing that things as chaotic as atmospheric processes can be sufficiently modulated by terrain/ land surface effects to produce discrete or clustered outcomes.
Warm mid-level temps advecting up from high elevation regions of the SW United States over the low-lying, featureless terrain of the RRV produces an almost impenetrable cap (actually 700 hPa were warmer here than over Cuba and the Yucatan yesterday). Again we saw what just a little bit of 'upslope magic' can do. Widespread, heavy rain then opened up along the front as that elevated mixed (warm) layer weakened, and LLJ cranked along a seemingly preferred configuration from the central plains up into Minnesota.
Be careful what you wish for in terms of less heat/humidity... we are transitioning into a potentially troubling pattern reminiscent of last summer. Northern stream disturbances will rotate around a deepening trough/ polar vortex over central Canada with upper ridge taking hold over western N America. That would yield a cool, showery regime and an absence of high heat and humidity until possibly the third week of July if GFS is to be believed. This is in stark contrast to long range forecasts which had called for the Bermuda/ Azores high and/or Sonoran high to build north into the northern plains giving us sustained summer warmth... we'll see.
Btw.. the cloud in the above link is likely a roll cloud generated from outflow behind the cell. I observed a similar feature over S Winnipeg yesterday in the clear air west of the convective line.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the photos Scott.. I was interested to see what that storm looked like on the ground. Sure was impressive on radar! This goes to show you how difficult tornado forecasting is.. even the most classic supercell that you're sure is dropping a tornado may or may not be. This is why we need ground truthing and weather spotters to augment radar information..
ReplyDeleteDaniel...lots of people were wondering what those 'cloud mountains' were. They were strange in the sense that they didn't have any precipitation behind them. I suppose a roll cloud is probably the most logical explanation given the circumstances.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone have thoughts on the storms that might erupt this afternoon? Will they reach severe limits? Dewpoints are starting to climb a bit and now at 16.5. I'm guessing if we want to see severe storms we'll have to get those dewpoints higher...
ReplyDeleteFYI: severe t-storm watch put out for the city of Winnipeg (and all of Manitoba to the west of Steinbach).
ReplyDeleteFairly well organized convection associated with shortwave moving in. Not enough southerly low level flow ahead of it however to bring back Sunday's stalled boundary as a warm front. Consequently, this disturbance will not be able to tap the deep moisture and instability in S Dakota and Minnesota...
ReplyDeleteOur nice little summer stretch is over soon.. temperatures drop 10C behind this squall line! Could see a quick 5-10 mm of rain between 4:30 and 5:30 pm here in Winnipeg along with some strong gusts..
ReplyDeleteImpressive squall line hitting Charleswood, heavy rain, strong wind gusts (70-80 km/h?) and churning low clouds.. almost looks like a funnel trying to form!
ReplyDelete50 kt gust at YWG airport just recorded!
ReplyDeleteWow... temperatures have dropped about 5 degrees at Rob's station, so it does appear that our short-lived warm streak is over for now.
ReplyDeleteImpressive shelf cloud passing over U of M.. very nice structure with greenish cast to sky behind it suggesting possible hail.
ReplyDelete@Daniel
ReplyDeleteIt also appeared on CTV's latest Live Eye image, too!
Severe thunderstorm's just been warned for the Teulon area (just north of Winnipeg, fyi)! In the statement, they're saying gusts of 100 km/h are possible!
ReplyDeleteNow for the city! 93 km/h wind gust recorded according to Environment Canada: in their statement, they say "prepare now for damaging winds." I'm barely getting any winds at my place though (according to the trees).
ReplyDeleteOne of my mom's friends on Facebook said they spotted a funnel cloud at Wilkes and Route 90 about 7 minutes ago!
ReplyDeleteWhere I am, the clouds are just pure flat: like a typical fall/spring rain event. I guess different portions of the city are getting a different serving of these storms!
ReplyDeleteConnor, judging from my view from the city, they probably just spotted an inflow finger. I'll post a picture soon of what I saw.
ReplyDeleteStrongest winds i've seen in a long time. Fence across the street was wobbling quite a bit, and top part of it got ripped off. Other than that, not much.
ReplyDeleteWow what a storm, the nice shelf cloud that passed had rotation I could see (not sure if it was a funnel), and the winds here in south Winnipeg were very strong, we must've had a couple gusts above 90k/h. The rain was a also a factor with very heavy downpours. I got a couple pics of the storm and a video of the rotation in the shelf cloud that I might post later when I put them on my computer.
ReplyDelete85 km/h wind gust was reported at the Canadian Wheat Board's WeatherBug downtown station! Maybe it's just me that didn't see the trees blow like crazy, or my timing is horrible.
ReplyDeleteSun's now starting to peek out again!
ReplyDeletehttp://img202.imageshack.us/img202/755/img0041n.jpg
ReplyDeleteThat's a panorama I was able to stitch together quickly today on my phone.
WOW 12C drop in 2 hours or 10C drop in 1 hour!
ReplyDeleteI also stitched together a panorama of the shelf cloud as I was out for a walk around 4:40 PM in St. Vital (click name for picture)
ReplyDeleteAlso worth noting...massive blackout affecting downtown Toronto and west due to a failure at a station
ReplyDeleteWinds not very strong where I was. Perhaps 60km/h? Temperature dropped from 28C to 18C. 5.6mm of rain so far, with more to come I see.
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ReplyDeleteAs we enter this unsettled NW flow pattern, we can look forward to a series of waves similar to today over the next 10 day period...
ReplyDeleteBehind each wave will be be a reinforcing shot of cool air. Secondary cold front comes thru sometime late Wednesday providing first opportunity at more convection.
After a brief respite of high pressure and warmer conditions GFS shows two, more potent disturbances.. one late Sunday and the other Wed/Thur of next week. These will have an uncharacteristically strong temperature gradient to work with and GFS deepens second system to 992 MB over N Ontario.
Deep, tropical moisture is not able to return with a NW upper flow.. however shallow pooling of moisture from local evaporation should be enough to generate instability that these disturbances can work with.
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ReplyDeleteGreat panoramas Buff n Jon.
ReplyDeleteIntriguing that the Manitoba Club, Old Fort Garry Gate (in trees) and Fort Garry Hotel, those Long Time bastions of Winnipeg Business were front and Center in Main Street South view. No doubt shrugging off another earth shattering prairie storm.
Drove thru that wall of green just before 5pm. It dropped from 26 at Kenaston to 16 before the perimeter in 3 minutes according to my trusty old toyota OS gage.
ReplyDeleteChecked the Toy web site this morning and no recalls (for O/S Weather gages) lol
Sorry for all the posts.. they would appear and then disappear on my web browser.
ReplyDeleteDo you guys know how I could post the pics/vids from yesterday (I already got them on my comp), I'm not the best with these computers lol!
ReplyDeleteI assume ROB is in the midst of his move. It seems to require several attempts to get a comment published. Suspect many have posted but few have actually been published.
ReplyDeletePlease start a new thread/blog and see if that works