Saturday, June 26, 2010
Thunderstorms developing this afternoon/evening.. locally severe storms possible
Showers and scattered thunderstorms have developed across western MB this morning and this activity is expected to spread east into the Red River valley this afternoon into this evening. Due to the warm and humid conditions today, some thunderstorms may be severe with very heavy downpours, large hail and strong wind gusts. As a result, a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for all of southern Manitoba for today. Stay tuned..
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Looks some very strong storms have broken out all over southern Manitoba!!!
ReplyDeleteSurely Winnipeg can't miss this batch of severe weather!!!
Nice looking cell just south of the border. Hope some of that action develops over the RRV this evening.
ReplyDeleteEnvironment Canada states that some areas have already received 50 mm of rain already with another 50 mm possible with these storms!
ReplyDeleteWell winnipig is gonna get spanked by this line. I was watching the severe weather bulletin on twn and they said the main threat is heavy rainfall but didn't mention anything about hail or strong winds. They don't look that ugly on rader but what else would I possibly experiance with these storms when they hit in my area?
ReplyDeleteMaybe some damaging winds with this line of storm heading into Winnipeg????
ReplyDeleteThat Teulon St Laurent line has dumped record rainfall on Ponemah. (Matlock to Wpg Beach) Boating between cottages and over some of the roads is now optional soon to be compulsory.
ReplyDeleteThe sky here in Winnipeg is just PITCH BLACK
ReplyDeletePrepare for the deluge!!!!
Its the only means of inter cottage transportation Door to door..porches are serving well as Docks
ReplyDeleteNice light grey southeast view here in Southpeg Dan'l.
ReplyDeleteThe biggest threat for severe will pass south of the city.. watch for cells on southern end of line to become very intense as they tap the better surface based CAPE just to our south. I'd keep on eye on that lone cell passing thru St Agathe...despite marginal surface to 500 hPa shear (30-40kts).. low level shear is actually pretty good with 25 kt SSW LLJ and SE surface flow.
ReplyDeleteWhat is it with these last weekends of the month. This is 3 months a row?
ReplyDeleteQuick poll ...will we break 100mm this weekend as we did in May?
I'll take a look at that storm if it gets close enough to Steinbach.
ReplyDeleteVERY heavy rain here in Winnipeg!!!
ReplyDeletewinnipeg at 6:53,
ReplyDeletetemp : 18.5
dew point : 19.7
The airport is showing some strong wind gusts!!!
ReplyDeleteNot here in St James....
just torrential downpour.
Wow, quite a non-event here in south end. Very brief downpours, just a couple mm, barely. Only a couple distant rumbles of thunder too. I can't believe the worst is already over!Of course a hole over south end. I think the storms are scared of us lately! =Þ
ReplyDeleteHey Scott, good luck in Steinbach, your lucky, so many storms coming for you.
13 mm here in Charleswood between 6:30-7 pm.. peak rainfall rate of 204 mm/hr at 6:57 pm. Looks like north end of the city and areas north were hit harder with 25-40 mm of rain, and peak wind gusts of 90 km/h at Weatherbug station at E St Paul.
ReplyDeleteA quick 15mm hear in Transcona with this line of storms. No hail though...
ReplyDeleteI can attest to Rob's estimate of 25-40 mm north of the city. Was driving down Hwy 9 through the worst of it and came upon a wall of water near St. Andrews. Many vehicles were pulled off on the shoulder waiting it out.
ReplyDeleteJust about the last thing that the farmers needed...
Rob!
ReplyDeleteEnvironment Canada radar showing estimated rainfall from 70 -90 mm of rain with the line of storms in the Woodlands area!
That is the last thing anyone needed to see up there!!!
Heavy downpour in downtown Winnipeg earlier this evening. Local flooding along Osborne & Broadway with some traffic lights out.
ReplyDeleteReally concerned about Steinbach. I hear that power is out, but if anyone from Steinbach sees this, let us know what you got...
Yes, very strong winds in Steinbach. Large tree down in my front yard. Peak wind gust at my house was only 61km/h, but I suspect it was much higher...this was among the highest gusts I have ever recorded...due to the sheltered effect around here.
ReplyDeletePeak rain rate of 256mm/hr, and 26.4mm of rain so far.
I'll post pictures later.
Is there really still a chance for severe storms? Or will the watch be cancelled soon?
ReplyDeleteJewels,
ReplyDeleteStill plenty of storm development in WRN MB and moving down through the interlake.
Essentially, we have weak convergence along a 850mb warm front currently running along a line from Swan River down towards Brandon. This warm front is being overrun by a 700mb 35kt jet which is providing lift in conjunction with an increasingly destabilizing airmass with a strong 500mb low moving into the province (temperatures are -14 to -16 at 500 mb near the upper low).
All this adds up to what will probably a night filled with isolated showers and thunderstorms slowly pushing eastwards with individual cells moving SE in the NW flow behind the trof line. 850-500 temperature difference increases from 25 degrees C to 30 degrees C by tomorrow morning, which translates to an area of MUCAPES in excess of 1000j/kg moving east with the warm front, which with the given the deep, moist airmass we are in, leaves a slight chance of isolated severe storms developing tonight.
I would imagine watches in the SE corner of the province will be dropped soon, and that we'll slowly see watches dropped from the western portion of the province as the night progresses.
Here is the picture (click my name)
ReplyDeleteLooks like a silver maple.. they are notorious for coming apart in wind and ice storms down in the midwest and S Ontario.
ReplyDeleteLow level convergence and instability along inverted trough keeping some showers going like buffalo-7 mentioned. However the major rains and storms are occurring well to our south over S Minnesota where low level moisture transport is maximized on nose of 850 hPa and true surface warm front.
I see CANADA DAY right now is calling for Periods of rain and windy with a high of......29 C
ReplyDeleteWOW raining and that warm!
Looks like Canada Day could be a very humid day!
Nice picture Scott!!!
ReplyDeleteHope your house and everyone in it is ok!!!!!
daniel P..
ReplyDeleteRe: Canada Day forecast. If you ever see warm temperatures and "periods of rain" in the forecast, it really means "Showers and thunderstorms likely", not an all day rain. These are computer generated forecasts, and the model is simply seeing an extensive area of precipitation that is convectively driven, but misleadingly calls it "periods of rain" as if it's a synoptic system. Note also that "thunderstorms" never appears in the EC forecast after day 2, only rain or showers. Again, a computer generated thing.
That being said, the outlook for Canada day does point to a warm and humid day with a possibility of warm frontal thunderstorms. Finally looks like some summer like weather moving in this week..
FYI.. the city of Winnipeg now posts city rainfall summaries from its rain gauge network online. Click on my name for link. The city has a network of about 30 rain gauges to monitor rainfall for water and sewer services. The summaries include maps that clearly show how precipitation amounts can vary widely even within the scale of a city. Will be interesting to see the summary for yesterday, showing the rainfall maxima across the northern and eastern parts of the city.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteRobs-Obs local precip map for Gimli Harbour Stn(71577) records a Max Wind Gust of 138.9Km, and Sustained at 70Km at 5pm yesterday..
ReplyDeleteIf that is accurate has anyone any info on damage??
Link on my name.
ReplyDeleteYes, that is a silver maple. Some people mentioned that it looked like it had been stuck by lightning. However, that dark area is actually just a small rotten patch where limbs split away from the trunk. There was a small area where water could accumulate, so it caused some deterioration. As seen from the pictures, it is a healthy tree overall, so the winds still had to be quite strong to split it apart. No damage to the house noted, besides some Christmas lights being down and perhaps a small section of bent eavestrough.
ReplyDeleteLooks like some pulse storms for today. Weak mid-level flow could be a problem - but funnel clouds are possible nonetheless.
Scott!
ReplyDeleteThere is talk that a potential tornado went through Steinbach!
Have you had a chance to look around town??? How extensive is the damage???
I highly doubt that a tornado went through. I went out into an open area to observe the storm as it approached and there was no sign of rotation whatsoever. In addition, the damage was very widespread, which is an indication of straight-line wind damage and not tornado damage. Unfortunately, people automatically assume that strong winds in a thunderstorm mean a tornado went through.
ReplyDeleteSome storms starting to fire to my north!
ReplyDeleteLooks like things could get active this afternoon!!!
Is anyone building the "Manitoba ARK"
ReplyDeletefor residents in the interlake.
They just seem to be getting hammered this year with torrential downpours!\
Rob.
ReplyDeleteI see that you have picked another quick 10mm of rain this afternoon with that massive downpour.
Wonderful.....
Ya here too, I'm happy to say. Finally I get direct hit by a storm after almost 3 weeks of waiting. Thunder was heaven to my ears. lol
ReplyDeleteOnly 4 mm
Are we close to setting a record for wettest June?
ReplyDeleteIf you mean Winnipeg, not even close. Average for June is 89.5 mm. Not including today, looks like only 69.5 mm so far this June! It's the frequency of the rain. I'm guessing other areas got records... Anyone know?
ReplyDeleteYeah, another 11 mm in that heavy downpour between 2:30-3 pm.. peak rainfall rate of 185 mm/hr at 2:42 pm. That brings my monthly total to 100 mm now.. while the official airport total so far is 69 mm not including today. Regardless, we're nowhere near record territory as the wettest June on record for Winnipeg is back in 1901 with a whopping 255 mm for the month, our wettest month ever. (Winnipeg's greatest daily rainfall of 152 mm on the 26th that month played a large part of that total) As jewels noted, June's average rainfall for Winnipeg is 89.5 mm, the wettest month of the year on average.
ReplyDeleteMy rain total for June is 110.8mm and my total rain since May 1 is 236.8mm (or 9.32”).
ReplyDeleteClick my name for more damage photos from yesterday.
Scott!
ReplyDeleteI've hade a look at your photos and it looks like some massive damage!
There would seem to be some indications of some very serious wind gusts!
Do you believe that there could have been some brief spin ups of tornadoes in the squall line??
Maybe Gustnadoes????
I'd be curious in your opinion Rob!!!
I didn't witness the wind coming through the severely damaged area, so I can't say whether or not it was a gustnado. I suspect it wasn't, but I wasn't there, so I don't know.
ReplyDeleteSome people in the area think the damage around Friedensfeld is from a tornado...I drove through that area and know it wasn't, since the wind damage is very widespread over several miles, not a compact area.
When do you guys think the next series of storms are coming in? Watching the models i'll have to take a guess and say thursday.
ReplyDeleteIn spite of Justins comments today I'm planning to be in Souris (Pipestone) Thursday..As I left Steinbach before the storm Saturday I wouldn't want to miss any action in SW Mb. Thurs.
ReplyDeleteAny chance of Justins Loydminister action lingering in SW Mb on Thursday??
For Thursday the jets are more or less aligned unidirectionally...I would bet that strong wind makers with some hail cores for SW manitoba will be on tap for Thursday pm. The storms will be relatively organized since there's a strong jet to support them as they move northeast throughout the afternoon on Thursday. Actually...freezing levels are higher though so pea to quarters likely with the stronger cores otherwise heavy rain and strong winds.
ReplyDeleteThx Justin. Happy hunting tomorrow in lloydminister / Coronation
ReplyDeleteIn the La Salle area we will finish June with between 11 and 12 inches of rain for the month.
ReplyDeleteThat's amazing! Hard to believe the difference of accumulations over a small area!! Because I only live about 20 km or so from La Salle (estimation), and I only measured 89.6 mm for the month (3.5 inches).
ReplyDeleteApologies for the lack of updates on the blog.. but I'm super busy right now with an impending move. Yes, Rob's Obs is on the move! We're moving to a new house in July, so I'll be a little preoccupied with that over the next few weeks (and months!) Don't worry though Charleswood weather fans, I'm not moving far.. I'll still be in Charleswood but at a new location. I'll be taking down my station at my present site sometime next week, and it will be mid to late July before I can reinstall and get my station online again at the new place (seems that things like linen and cookware have a higher priority :) Robs Obs website and blog however will continue unaffected.. so please continue to post away!
ReplyDeleteWell I hope the move is safe and sound for you Rob!
ReplyDeleteAny educated guesses on when the rain will start on Thursday, how much and for how long?? Osborne St. Festival scheduled for all day long (and many other events elsewhere)
ReplyDeleteJoe,
ReplyDeletebecause the precipitation will be convective in nature, it is hard to pinpoint an exact time frame as to when it may occur, if it occurs at all. Storms of this nature always have the potential to miss us too.
But if I were to give you a time frame of the best risk, I would be aiming for late afternoon into the evening and maybe early overnight hours of early July 2
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteJon "Best" risk means "Highest".. Riight
ReplyDeleteand the "event" is the Rain not the Street Party..
Gotcha.
Slightly off topic but Kudos to the Canadian Hurricane model. Again as in 2009, the most accurate 2 to 4 days out.
ReplyDeleteThree days ago, the only major reliable model predicting ALEX would come ashore in Texas as a Hurricane.
Re: Forecast for Canada Day..
ReplyDeleteThere is a chance of some thunderstorms in Winnipeg overnight into Thursday morning with some warm frontal elevated convection that is expected to fire up tonight. Most of that activity however should pass us to the north through the Interlake. Then we should get a break in shower activity through much of the day, with conditions getting noticably more warm and humid by the afternoon with afternoon temperatures climbing towards the 30C mark in Winnipeg, and dewpoints near 20C.. giving humidex values of 35-38C. This will be the warmest day of the year so far for us so be prepared for warm and muggy weather since we haven't acclimatized to it yet this year. Additional thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon/evening as a weak trough pushes through that may be enough to trigger some storms given the muggy conditions.