Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Severe thunderstorms possible over southern MB this afternoon/evening..
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across southern MB as an upper level disturbance tracks into southwest MB tapping an unstable airmass over the area. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across SW Manitoba this afternoon and push eastward into the Red River valley later this afternoon and into SE Manitoba this evening. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail of 2 to 3 cm in diameter, torrential downpours of 25-50 mm/hr, and damaging wind gusts of 90 km/h or more. In addition, conditions are favourable for some storms to produce funnel clouds and/or tornadoes.. similar to what was reported in southern SK Monday afternoon. Stay tuned on this developing situation..
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I'm assuming the severe thunderstorm watch will be extended to Portage and Winnipeg very shortly!
ReplyDeleteThere seems to be storms starting to fire in the Portage La Prairie area!
Looking outside on my balcony I can confirm that with large towering cumulonimbus starting to build!
What would cause the depoints in Portage La Prairie to be so much lower than Winnipeg's????
ReplyDelete12.5C in Portage
18.9 C in Winnipeg
as of 1:00 p.m
@daniel P
ReplyDeleteAs you predicted, severe thunderstorm watch for Winnipeg/RRV. Now skies clearing up in Winnipeg = temperatures rising = severe tstorms. Lookslike central Manitoba getting hit hard, like they need it...
There's a surface trough through the RRV right now with a light southerly flow in the river valley, and a southwest flow to our west. That is allowing some drier air to advect into areas to our west, while the RRV remains quite moist. That drier air is a bit troublesome.. that may weaken or suppress the severe potential for this afternoon especially to our west. We'll see how it unfolds..
ReplyDeleteI see, thanks for that info Rob about the dewpoints!
ReplyDeleteWhich might be a bad situation to the areas east of Portage in the next few hours as the storms will have so much moisture to work with!
Winnipeg looks set to get a heavy thunderstorm in the next hour!
ReplyDeleteMust be a few nervous folks in Elie as this cell heads right for them on the 3rd anniversary of their big tornado. Visually impressive storm but nothing severe with it noted so far from radar or surface reports..
ReplyDeleteSpoke too soon.. funnel cloud spotted near Elie.. tornado warning issued. Talk about coincidence..
ReplyDeleteTORNADO WARNING!!!!
ReplyDeleteOn the anniversary date!!!
what are the chances?????
Wonder if Winnipeg will get a tornado watch as a result! Heading for us, for now......
ReplyDeleteWow, what are the chances indeed!
ReplyDeleteI'm definitely going to be keeping a close eye on this storm heading towards the city.
As fast as that tornado warning came, it left. But the storm still seems to be chugging along as the city has a good chance to see it.
ReplyDeleteWHEW
ReplyDeleteTornado warning dropped!
That was a close one!
I have a feeling it may not be the last storm for today though!
Well my attention was focused on world cup temporarily (!!)
ReplyDeleteStorms forming where deeper moisture resides... RUC hinting at very shallow moisture east of RRV.
Main problem is general lack of backed low level flow (with SSW trajectory being common), and absense of LLJ. As a consequence low level shear is umimpressive. I think best chance for severe storms affecting Winnipeg will be around 6-7 PM as better deep shear moves in from Dakotas and axis of deep moisture moves east.
WOW~
ReplyDeleteI've never seen a storm just fall apart like that!
Ok......who activated the storm shields over Winnipeg????
Update: upon further analysis... interaction of arctic type front draped to our north and upper level shortwave resulting in ongoing convection. Best dynamics and associated shear looks like it will stay south of us (in the Dakotas) associated with a southern stream disturbance moving up from Colorado. Strong LLJ and deep moisture transport target Twin Cities area for nocturnal MCS. 'No man's land' setting up between the two regions.
ReplyDeleteThink that convection will keep going along front off to our north and some of this may eventually brush northern suburbs of Winnipeg. With lack of LLJ and dynamics.. I would expect storms to diminish after dark. Other thoughts?
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ReplyDeleteMore organized line of convection firing along front from St Ambroise to Victoria Beach no doubt aided by lake breeze boundaries. Main questions:
ReplyDelete1)is there enough shear to keep this line organized?
2)how much southward progress will they make?
Is it just me or is that Woodlands radar having problems since the storm is over it???
ReplyDeleteFunnel cloud image on Winnipeg observation.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteNot sure I'd call it an f/cloud 15 minutes ago when spotted looking north on Pembina.
ReplyDeleteQuite a few tornado warnings today with many funnel cloud sightings!
ReplyDeleteSigh, once again storms all dodge south end ! It's practically becoming a tradition!
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg airport has a 61 km/h wind gust from the north!
ReplyDeleteMy winds in St James is from the south!
hmmmmmm......?????
It rained hard just north of perimeter for about 30 minutes with some hail. Hail was just small and not very much.
ReplyDeleteDaniel
ReplyDeleteThe wind was from the south as the storm started as it passed by the wind changed direction from the north. I guess the storm was wrapping around as it left
Just heard on the news that a tornado may have touched down in Stonewall.
ReplyDeleteWell sometimes things do work out generally as you expect them...
ReplyDeleteI intercepted that cell north (which was at the tail end of the line that formed in the interlake) of the city... I was surprised to observe a wall cloud with very well defined beaver tail passing just north of Lockport. Initially, there was definitely a broad lowering of the cloud base (possibly a braod funnel but I was too far south to say) but lost definition as precip and outflow from another cell forming to the SW moved in. Got caught with torrential rain coming back to Winnipeg. The upwind cell formed suddenly and collided with the older cell... interesting.
Time to invest in a good camera and camcorder!
Possible funnel cloud observed north of Steinbach at around 7:30pm. It only lasted for a short period of time and was quite far away, so it was hard to tell how strong it was/if it was rotating.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't be surprised if funnels were spotted around Anola either associated with a right turning cell.
ReplyDeleteOutflow from the Anola cell triggered the storm passing over Ste Anne (initiated around Ste Agathe) and now they are about to collide. Interesting storm motion today...
I got some pretty good pictures of a funnel cloud to the south of the city. I processed them quick and sent them into EC. Once I spend some proper time processing them I'll post a link to them here :)
ReplyDeleteRob!
ReplyDeleteHear of any tornado touchdowns yesterday???
Apparently their was a barn destroyed somewhere in the Marquette area!
Anyone else find it smokey today!
ReplyDeleteI don't know if it's local or all of southern Manitoba is hazy?
There's quite a bit of smoke aloft coming in from forest fires over northern SK and northern MB.. The smoke comes in waves, and can be quite extensive at times which is when the sky will seem especially hazy. Current satpix show another thick layer of smoke north of Winnipeg through the Hecla area moving southward. Should make for a nice hazy sunset tonight..
ReplyDeleteThere was a report of a brief tornado touchdown between Marquette and Woodlands that apparently did some damage to a garage.. but it's unconfirmed. There were numerous funnel cloud reports yesterday supported by photographic evidence, so they were definitely around. However, the vast majority of them did not touch down. A few reports of large hail (quarter to golf ball size) especially northeast of Winnipeg from E St Paul through Bird's Hill to east of Lake Winnipeg..
ReplyDeleteBreaking news!!!
ReplyDeleteEarthquake in the Ottawa area!!!
Shear seemd to be the limiting factor.. storms only occasionally acquired true supercellular characteristics. Had the low level flow been SE or SSE.. rotation within cells would have been more persistent.
ReplyDeleteWhen I encountered the cell yesterday I likely saw the remnants of the funnel associated with the Marquette tornado. As the cell crossed the Red River at Lockport I did not notice any obvious rotation within the wall cloud/ inflow structure.
Upper flow has turned NNW at 850 hPa backing to WNW at 300 hPA. Core of coold air and low dewpoints (3-5 C) will pass to our NE and affect Northern Ontario. Surface and upper ridge pass thru before upper flow turns SW again. Poternial for heavy nocturnal rains return by Friday morning as warm front stalls to our south and is intersected by LLJ. Severe looks unlikley as all the surface based instability appears to remain well south of our region.
Interesting seeing the smoke from the fires in northern Saskatchewan on visible satellite
ReplyDeleteSpecial Weather statement issued for all the smoke!!
ReplyDeleteIs that 25 to 50mm Friday to Monday Southern Manitoba forecast (again) for real.
ReplyDeleteHave we grown so blazé with less than 30mm QPF that it barely warrants a mention, or is "Shock and Awe" the new de rigueur requirement for comment??
Severe Storms Possible Today through Saturday
ReplyDeleteNWS Grand Forks Graphic and Text
The system that produced 10mm of rain since midnight in SW SK seems to have tripped over the MB border or at least Hwy 83 this morning.
ReplyDeleteWill we see this reappearing this afternoon in Winnipeg?
I had to digest all the world cup news/analysis for today... but yeah... moisture/ instability pooling ahead of a disturbance is triggering another round of storms that (ofcourse) is missing the city. I for one feel deprived haha.
ReplyDeleteUpper flow turns SW and lee cyclogenesis causes surface low to form on Montana/Wyoming border. Warm front along int'l border and associated frontogenesis sharpens in response. LLJ ramps up tonite across stalled front generating nocturnal convection. Question is where... NAM seems too far south with LLJ and is very weak with low. However even GFS suggests MCS will track acorss southern RRV and - surprise, surprise - miss the city. I didn't have a chance to look regional or global GEM.
Wow I hope we get something tonight, otherwise looks like Saturday or Saturday night hopefully. Haven't been hit by a thunderstorm here in the south end since June 8. I agree, storm deprivation is a good way to put it! Been envying others too!
ReplyDeleteI think rain is pretty much a sure bet tonight, especially with extent of convection along the jet in SK right now. Thunderstorm, eh, maybe not. Either way, whatever comes though, I'm fairly sure it'll be at hours I'd rather be sleeping :)
ReplyDeleteJust watching Estevan get creamed by a severe storm (click my name).
ReplyDeleteLooks like Southern Manitoba is going to get some heavy rain tonight!!
ReplyDeleteThe last thing we need for the farmers!!!
The northern end of precipitation region show signs of weakening... with the loss of daytime heating there is little in the way of dynamics to keep it going. Watch for convection to become more focused south building into LLJ as it ramps up.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely got hit hard here in the north end of Regina yesterday. I had 27 mm between 3:30 and 4 PM with hail and the temp dropped from 27 to 12 C.
ReplyDeleteEnded up with 47.5 mm for the day.
Tornado warnings issued for the municipalities adjacent to Regina but nothing reported on the ground that I heard.
New cells still popping up even at this hour (12:30 AM).
My lightning detector is getting a workout after a slow start to the season.
http://nwrweather.com
Didn't see a drop of rain in my end. Quite humid out there at the moment. Looks like we may get some summer next week?
ReplyDeleteWe've cleared out nicely but once again convection should be focused where best moisture/instability remains pooled:
ReplyDelete1)off to our south associated with warm front of low in northern plains and LLJ
2)along inverted trough in Saskatchewan
A stray cell could form off lake breeze boundaries...would be marginally severe with deep shear of 30 kts. With a lack of LLJ convection should weaken with loss of daytime heating...
Will those storms in Western Manitoba make it into Winnipeg tonight???
ReplyDeleteOr will they fall apart like they did last night????
Daniel P!!!!
ReplyDeleteWith the low-level jet being so weak, I think they'll die before they hit the city!!!!!!!!
What do you think????!?!?!?!?!!
With the dewpoints much higher than they were last night one would think they should hold together longer!!!
ReplyDeleteA few warnings for western Manitoba with some strong cells!
Did anyone see Winnipeg forecast for tonight????
ReplyDeleteClearing this evening!
If anything it will become cloudy....not clear!
Looks stormy tomorrow. Any thoughts about some severe storms, tornadoes maybe?
ReplyDeleteTomorrow looks to hinge on daytime heating (BIG surprise).
ReplyDelete00Z NAM shows 30C temperatures in the RRV, while GFS shows temperatures only around 24C. We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see when the clouds roll in. If we're lucky, then the NAM will be right and we may see some big storms, with shear of 35 to 50kts and CAPE of 2000J/kg or more (if temps reach 30C).
I hope they are better at path predictions than we appear to be recently...
ReplyDeleteTS Alex Wundermap
Nice clear zone developing over the RRV. It is now 25/20 in Steinbach.
ReplyDeleteWow, that's crazy man. They should really try to do something to fix that.
ReplyDeleteNice post, kind of drawn out though. Really good subject matter though.
ReplyDelete