Tuesday, June 08, 2010

Thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening

Showers are moving through the Red River valley this morning ahead of a low pressure system crossing southern Manitoba. The rain will move out this morning with some partial clearing developing from the west this afternoon helping to get temperatures into the low 20s. This will result in an increasingly unstable airmass over the Red River valley this afternoon with scattered thunderstorms developing as a cold front pushes in from the west. Some of the storms may be strong with heavy downpours and hail. Storms will move east of the region this evening with cooler conditions forecast for Wednesday.

79 comments:

  1. Severe wording in Portage La Prairie's forecast as of the 11:00 AM update!

    Looks like the clearing is now working into Western Manitoba and storms should get going in the next few hours!

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  2. I think the biggest risk area will be for severe storms in Dauphin, St. Rose, Brandon-area, and the RRV from the Intl. border to Gimli. Main threats will be heavy downpours with amounts 50-125 mm in slow-moving storms and cold core funnel clouds which may actually result in landspouts today. Wind should not be an issue with no jets above us and low cloud bases, and hail will be marginal if it happens. No baseball hail today, that's for sure.

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  3. A heavy line of storms have just formed to the north of Winnipeg!

    Also a few cells to the west of Winnipeg!

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  4. Severe thunderstorm Watch????

    Maybe around the Brandon area!
    Some storms are looking quite intense on radar!!!

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  5. Looking to the west from my balcony I can see a line of towering cumulus clouds that have exploded in the past 10 minutes!

    Right where the clearing line is!!!

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  6. Well it looks like someone activated the storm shields around Winnipeg! LOL

    There is storms all around Winnipeg.... but I have a feeling Winnipeg could get in on the action later!

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  7. Severe thunderstorm watch now in effect for Winnipeg. Also looks like a pertty severe cell just to our south. Let's just hope that shield around Winnipeg breaks down.

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  8. Yes Mr Farms!

    That cell now has a warning on it for R.M of MacDonald

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  9. Just exploding on the visible satellite! =D

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  10. The storm just off to the south of the city is weakening on BOTH the Woodlands and Grand Forks radar! However, there is a new cell to the west of Portage La Prairie.

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  11. That storm to the west of Portage La Prairie is looking like the only hope of Winnipeg getting a storm this evening!!!

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  12. That cell to our southwest is over the Sperling-Brunkild area. Slow moving cell likely dumping heavy rain and hail over Hwy 3 southwest of Sanford.

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  13. Exploding? Exaggerate much? Let's get serious here. You have no idea what explosive development is. Give me a loaded gun sounding with 4000+ j/kg of CAPE and give me a trigger, then you have explosive development! Reading this blog is funny considering we have what 1000 j/kg of CAPE and the environment is not capped! For explosive development see Pipestone or Elie satellite images from
    June 22nd and 23rd of 2007.

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  14. Again, heavy rain is the main threat along with marginally severe hail. Storms struggling to organize in the low shear environment. Line trying to fill in between Woodlands and Carman so Winnipeg may get affected.. I wouldn't hold my breath though as cells will have tought time holding together.

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  15. And once again, another storm cell weakens (the one near Portage). Will Winnipeg even see any rain? Maybe not. Depends on the line near the Woodlands area.

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  16. Wow.. many comments all at once.

    Actually any convective development can be thought of as being explosive. Buoyancy of 1500 J/kg is more than enough to produce severe storms and tornadoes. The main issue today is lack of shear which is preventing storms from rotating/ organizing into true supercells. Meteorologists from the Toronto weather office are finding tornado occurrence is greatest with CAPEs generally less than 2000 J/kg. Days with extreme buoyancy apparently tend to favor the rapid formation of large complexes/ derechos versus discrete super cells.

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  17. Much drier air has already filtered into the Portage La Prairie area with a wind shift to the due west!

    That will pretty much diminish the storm threat for them and areas to the west!

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  18. Let's call it a night for these storm cells to hit the city now. If something develops near the city, don't call it a night.

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  19. Tornado warning just to the north of Warren, ND. Might scratch my earlier comment.

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  20. A bit surprisingly... convection starting to form bowing line segments from Morris, MB down to Grand Forks.

    Post frontal convection is still ongoing behind the surface trough associated with upper low and cold pool with cold core funnels not out of the question.

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  21. I suppose enogh vorticity from the 'bookend' of those bowing segments was enough to trip off the meso or equivalent algorithm on the Doppler?

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  22. Apparently a couple funnel clouds have been spotted around Teulon (MB) with that cell that as been almost stationary!

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  23. Funnels near Teulon? More details? CJOB? Free Press? ...

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  24. Yeah, a tip from a radio listener near Teulon

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  25. Teulon is just over 55 km north of Winnipeg, fyi. Right in between both lakes.

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  26. Yeah, Teulon is just about 40 km southwest of Gimli, just about under the cell that has been stationary for a while.

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  27. Ouflow from many different directions converging just west of Winnipeg.. we'll see if anything pops up shortly.

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  28. Wow, updated radar shows many storms poping up as Connor predicted. Just sitting and waiting to see if anything goin to hit Winnipeg.

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  29. Sorry-as Daniel predicted lol

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  30. Marble Hail in East Winnipeg

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  31. Wife reports large pea size hail in Unicity as of 6:50 pm..

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  32. Scratch that....West Winnipeg

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  33. A brief, but heavy downpour in Silver Heights hit at 6:58pm. 2mm fell in just a couple of minutes before the cell moved off.

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  34. At the moment I am on my phones browser at the corner of St. Anne's Road and Bishop Grandin Blvd, and looking north I see what looks like a wall cloudesque formation. Could this be really what I'm thinking? I have pictures if you'd like to look into this further.

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  35. Ooo, another round for Winnipeg developping as we speak =D Maybe the south end will get some action with this one.

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  36. Looks like the storm near Elie is heading right for Winnipeg!!!

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  37. Rob!

    Looks like Winnipeg should be getting a warning anytime now with that severe storm heading into West Winnipeg!

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  38. All right!!!!!!

    Shall we get excited??????????!!!!

    It's a storm coming toward Winnipeg!!!!!!!1111111one

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  39. Lightning is picturesque! Amazing cloud to ground and cloud to air lightning with this! Other than that, not much though =~

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  40. Very dark and low clouds on the leading edge of this storm!!!

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  41. Nice storm just passed in south Winnipeg with awsome clouds and lightning. I can see lightning off in the distance ( to the west) and the radar shows some more storms coming! And once again my power shut down!

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  42. On another note, models ar hinting at a warm-up this weekend into next week.

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  43. Yes, quite the impressive light show this evening.. with several cells regenerating to the west of the city. Could be in this activity for the next 45 minutes or so..

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  44. Picture of the storm coming in from Elie on my name.

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  45. Nice Picture of the storm Ron!

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  46. What are those storms near Elie forming on? There must be some kind of a boundary there that's forcing these storms...could it be a lake breeze off L. MB?

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  47. Must be CS...
    cause when they hit Winnipeg they basically fell apart!

    1 more intense storm has formed in the woodlands area and this time heading east southeast!

    That must be the cold front heading this way!!!

    One check on Dauphin shows strong north winds so the front has gone past there!!!

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  48. The first ban of showers/ storms seems to be from an occulted front line however the trough is yet to pass. Correct me if im wrong but the trough is around Portage, and that is what is causing the instability around lake MB.

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  49. Rob!

    I'm almost certain that some areas tonight got close to 100 mm of rain!

    Localized yes....but some area have got hit over and over again with thunderstorms all day long!

    Looks like another blow to the farmers!

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  50. Are those some lake effect streamers coming off Lake Manitoba. Interesting!

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  51. Jewels..

    Good observation! Yes, some lake enhanced bands of rain or drizzle coming off Lake Manitoba into Winnipeg, Elie, Portage areas on those cool northwest winds. Shows up nicely on low angle doppler radar, better than on the conventional radar you see on Weatheroffice because it's occurring mainly in the lowest levels.

    Upper air sounding from The Pas shows +1C temps at 850 mb and +5C at Bismarck, so it's likely around +2 or +3C air at 850 mb moving over 15C lake waters.. enough for lake effect convection. Never nice to talk about lake effect in June, but it's not uncommon around here in cool outbreaks.. Looking forward to some more summer-like weather next week!

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  52. I have a good poll question!!!!!

    Will Winnipeg hit 30 C or higher in the month of June????

    hmmmmmm......

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  53. I have a question Rob!

    There are many sources that state that we could be heading into a
    LA NINA event this summer!!!

    What could that mean for our summer??

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  54. Saving that it is 3 to 4 days away, all your OBS Forecasts (X CTV) are predicting a mostly sunny Weekend with moderate temps (eyeball average of 20 to 21)...Not exactly Beach weather but great Golf weather.

    The contrarian, CTV,which is you visual, is calling for cloud, showers and cool both days.

    What do you see Rob?

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  55. And, do t-storms look possible any time next 3 days? Doesn't look too likely, but I just have to ask =Þ

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  56. Models having problems with the evolving high amplitude pattern. Despite highly amplified ridge building over Central US, most models keep warm front, moisture & LLJ well off to our SE. They blow up lots of QPF along intersection of LLJ and slow moving front or inverted trough from NE Minnesota back towards S Dakota (GFS further north than NAM). Models show surface Colorado low taking shape by midday tomorrow in response to deepening long wave trough over weatern N America. However, the evolution of this system is poorly handled with the system apparently stationary and weakening. Of course, the motion and strength of this system will have a large impact on where LLJ and front stall out.

    In any case.. I would expect cool, cloudy conditions as front stalls off to our SE and then upper low and cold pool pass providing us with a potentially showery regime.

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  57. daniel p..

    I don't have a lot of expertise in this area, but my understanding is that El Nino/La Nina patterns have more of an impact on our winter weather than summer. There doesn't appear to be a strong signal either way with La Nina (or El Nino for that matter) on what kind of summer we'll have.

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  58. According to the US Climate Prediction Center, we are in for a below normal June-July-August in S. Manitoba. Here's the link:
    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

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  59. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

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  60. Well yesterday the weekend was looking warm and dry!

    Now it looks cloudy and cool!
    cloudy and cool weekends.
    Do I see a pattern developing here?

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  61. Another set of NINO (ENSO) web links is available from Robs OBS site under Maps/Models dropdown menu LONG RANGE-ENSO OUTLOOK or at
    El Nino Southern Oscillation

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  62. Those QPF 48 hour and 1-5 day forecasts are moving the bullseye north on each update. We've slipped from no QPF for 5 days yesterday to three days of rain.

    The <IR satellite gives a hint why..

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  63. We're in for some rain over the next few days, but thankfully the heaviest amounts are expected well to our south and east closer to the warm front and LLJ as Daniel noted earlier. Portions of South Dakota through Minnesota into northern Michigan could be seeing rainfall amounts similar to what southern MB experienced the last weekend of May.

    Further north over us, we'll likely have more showery precipitation with lighter amounts as the upper trough moves through. Local moderate rainfall amounts possible, but not to the extent further south. Still not very summerlike, with some improvement noted next week, although models keep holding back on that major pattern change that we'd like to see.

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  64. Rob, when you mention pattern change, it makes me wonder. As we endure more cloudy/cool/wet weather, what is the root cause THIS time around and is it the same thing that was responsible for last year's poor summer? Maybe I'm a pessimist but it sure seems like our summers have shifted for the past few years. I'm hard pressed to recall a recent warm dry summer.

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  65. recent? three years ago in 2007 and back in 2003 were spectacular summers! That wasn't to long ago! How quickly people forget! There's no way of knowing what the summer will bring. Those climatologists can only provide guidance based on what their long range models tell them and we all know how models perform.

    Take it day by day or week to week. Don't waste your time looking at the month ahead.

    My main concern is what will happen in the Gulf of Mexico with the imminent hurricane season. Oil on the surface will reduce the surface albedo of the water which in turn 'should' heat up the water which storms feed off of. I know storms want a deep marine layer of warm SST's but a hot ocean surface will translate heat downward I can guarantee that.

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  66. Year 2007.....hmmmmmm

    Oh right that was the year of the ELIE tornado!!!(Justin would remember that)

    Who can forget that year when Carman broke Canada's all time humidex!!

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  67. And in both 03 and 07 we were coming out of NINO winters. Not supported by data BUT coming out of a later spring NINO in 69 (what else) Hot summer weather returned in August .

    In 83, and 98 return to hot summer occurred in July and particularly August. In 92 it never returned .

    Most of those MJJs were also wet.

    That would be 5 hot summers and one not so hot..

    see Cold and Warm Episodes by Season

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  68. That would make June unanimously cool and Wet

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  69. ..and let's not forget the hot dry summer of 2006.. driest June-July on record in Winnipeg with 16 days in July above 30C. People tend to remember the bad summers more than the good ones it seems, but I guess that's human nature. But I agree with Justin.. I wouldn't worry about what may or may not happen in the next few weeks. No one knows, and we can't do anything about it anyways.. (apart from moving to Arizona ;)

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  70. Double barreled system.. main low down in Colorado taking shape. Northern low washes out and GFS lifts southern one slowly to the NE - reaching SW Minnesota by Saturday morning. 18Z GFS also shows large swath of QPF along associated warm front south and east of a Fargo to Baudette line. Models then want to weaken low and shove it east.

    Given the long wave pattern and how inconsistent solutions have been... I would not be totally surprised if low takes less progressive track. In that scenario SE Manitoba may get brushed by another MCS Saturday.

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  71. PS...

    Will have to see the 00Z runs of RGEM, NAM, GFS. RGEM seems to shows too much precip associted with inverted trough over S Manitoba. Both NAM and RGEM are more pregressive and weaker with Colorado low and show MCS further SE. The question are:

    1)How sharp the upper ridge becomes as pattern amplifies thru tomorrow. This will affect track of main low.

    2)How much moisture can be advected north along inverted trough before low closes off.

    Let's see...

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  72. More rain tomorrow!!!

    Hopefully it will fall apart kinda like it did today with only 0.3 mm of rain at Rob's place!

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  73. Hey everyone!

    I was just reading an article on the Winnipeg Free Press online and it states that Canada as a whole recorded it's warmest spring ever!

    It also states that Manitoba actually ended up 0.1 C above normal

    YES!

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  74. I do not see forcing to support anything more than drizzle tomorrow. I think EC's forecast of 15 mm is too high.

    00Z GFS has backed off on idea of closed surface low moving up into Minnesota.. now showing an inverted trough and associated MSC further SE.

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  75. Hopefully this will be the last day of rain for a while and we can get some sun soon!

    BRING ON THE HEAT!!!!

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  76. Winnipeg getting brushed by weak forcing and associated lite precip from remnants of northern upper low (arctic/northern stream). Best focus for lite precip should be off to our north and west this evening so I would not expect much in the way of totals.

    Main action will be along tropical front stalled out to our SE. Two distrubances/ warm advection maxima and associated MCSs will develop. One will ride along ND/SD border and another all the way out across Muskoka possibly brushing the Ottawa area tomorrow morning.

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  77. Feels like we haven't seen the sun in weeks ! Getting sun-starved!
    Looks like another band of rain coming -.-

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  78. Finally looks like we'll be seeing some of that long awaited sunshine by tomorrow as this area of low cloud finally clears out. We'll still have some cloud around but at least we should be seeing some sun for the first time since last Monday. We may actually enjoy a few days of sunshine and warm temps before the weather turns unsettled again by mid to late week.

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