tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post1120542550825965625..comments2024-02-25T19:29:38.176-06:00Comments on Rob's Blog: Thunderstorms possible this afternoon/eveningUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger79125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-14657499861824488832010-06-12T10:15:06.500-05:002010-06-12T10:15:06.500-05:00Finally looks like we'll be seeing some of tha...Finally looks like we'll be seeing some of that long awaited sunshine by tomorrow as this area of low cloud finally clears out. We'll still have some cloud around but at least we should be seeing some sun for the first time since last Monday. We may actually enjoy a few days of sunshine and warm temps before the weather turns unsettled again by mid to late week.robnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-33691351392918322212010-06-11T18:06:48.341-05:002010-06-11T18:06:48.341-05:00Feels like we haven't seen the sun in weeks ! ...Feels like we haven't seen the sun in weeks ! Getting sun-starved! <br />Looks like another band of rain coming -.-Maxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09511971659100579935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-9048374948475828342010-06-11T16:35:52.787-05:002010-06-11T16:35:52.787-05:00Winnipeg getting brushed by weak forcing and assoc...Winnipeg getting brushed by weak forcing and associated lite precip from remnants of northern upper low (arctic/northern stream). Best focus for lite precip should be off to our north and west this evening so I would not expect much in the way of totals.<br /><br />Main action will be along tropical front stalled out to our SE. Two distrubances/ warm advection maxima and associated MCSs will develop. One will ride along ND/SD border and another all the way out across Muskoka possibly brushing the Ottawa area tomorrow morning.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-42308403238123890022010-06-11T16:09:15.721-05:002010-06-11T16:09:15.721-05:00Hopefully this will be the last day of rain for a ...Hopefully this will be the last day of rain for a while and we can get some sun soon!<br /><br />BRING ON THE HEAT!!!!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-39024879071557252042010-06-11T00:39:48.488-05:002010-06-11T00:39:48.488-05:00I do not see forcing to support anything more than...I do not see forcing to support anything more than drizzle tomorrow. I think EC's forecast of 15 mm is too high.<br /><br />00Z GFS has backed off on idea of closed surface low moving up into Minnesota.. now showing an inverted trough and associated MSC further SE.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-40007196778277082502010-06-10T21:58:27.096-05:002010-06-10T21:58:27.096-05:00Hey everyone!
I was just reading an article on th...Hey everyone!<br /><br />I was just reading an article on the Winnipeg Free Press online and it states that Canada as a whole recorded it's warmest spring ever!<br /><br />It also states that Manitoba actually ended up 0.1 C above normal <br /><br />YES!daniel pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-63683236773565664532010-06-10T20:52:38.856-05:002010-06-10T20:52:38.856-05:00More rain tomorrow!!!
Hopefully it will fall apar...More rain tomorrow!!!<br /><br />Hopefully it will fall apart kinda like it did today with only 0.3 mm of rain at Rob's place!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-81211810072119108212010-06-10T19:07:51.918-05:002010-06-10T19:07:51.918-05:00PS...
Will have to see the 00Z runs of RGEM, NAM,...PS...<br /><br />Will have to see the 00Z runs of RGEM, NAM, GFS. RGEM seems to shows too much precip associted with inverted trough over S Manitoba. Both NAM and RGEM are more pregressive and weaker with Colorado low and show MCS further SE. The question are:<br /><br />1)How sharp the upper ridge becomes as pattern amplifies thru tomorrow. This will affect track of main low.<br /><br />2)How much moisture can be advected north along inverted trough before low closes off.<br /><br />Let's see...Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-70925049389216160962010-06-10T18:37:53.936-05:002010-06-10T18:37:53.936-05:00Double barreled system.. main low down in Colorado...Double barreled system.. main low down in Colorado taking shape. Northern low washes out and GFS lifts southern one slowly to the NE - reaching SW Minnesota by Saturday morning. 18Z GFS also shows large swath of QPF along associated warm front south and east of a Fargo to Baudette line. Models then want to weaken low and shove it east. <br /><br />Given the long wave pattern and how inconsistent solutions have been... I would not be totally surprised if low takes less progressive track. In that scenario SE Manitoba may get brushed by another MCS Saturday.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-37817481939981744262010-06-10T13:42:58.618-05:002010-06-10T13:42:58.618-05:00..and let's not forget the hot dry summer of 2.....and let's not forget the hot dry summer of 2006.. driest June-July on record in Winnipeg with 16 days in July above 30C. People tend to remember the bad summers more than the good ones it seems, but I guess that's human nature. But I agree with Justin.. I wouldn't worry about what may or may not happen in the next few weeks. No one knows, and we can't do anything about it anyways.. (apart from moving to Arizona ;)robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-73338832415813739422010-06-10T13:32:54.759-05:002010-06-10T13:32:54.759-05:00That would make June unanimously cool and WetThat would make June unanimously cool and WetAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-2308428557041477582010-06-10T13:30:50.445-05:002010-06-10T13:30:50.445-05:00And in both 03 and 07 we were coming out of NINO ...And in both 03 and 07 we were coming out of NINO winters. Not supported by data BUT coming out of a later spring NINO in 69 (what else) Hot summer weather returned in August .<br /><br />In 83, and 98 return to hot summer occurred in July and particularly August. In 92 it never returned . <br /><br />Most of those MJJs were also wet.<br /><br />That would be 5 hot summers and one not so hot..<br /><br />see <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml" rel="nofollow">Cold and Warm Episodes by Season</a>Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03903818436067284685noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-3426093258858035502010-06-10T13:15:36.099-05:002010-06-10T13:15:36.099-05:00Year 2007.....hmmmmmm
Oh right that was the year ...Year 2007.....hmmmmmm<br /><br />Oh right that was the year of the ELIE tornado!!!(Justin would remember that)<br /><br />Who can forget that year when Carman broke Canada's all time humidex!!daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-20852409640206516642010-06-10T12:56:16.101-05:002010-06-10T12:56:16.101-05:00recent? three years ago in 2007 and back in 2003 ...recent? three years ago in 2007 and back in 2003 were spectacular summers! That wasn't to long ago! How quickly people forget! There's no way of knowing what the summer will bring. Those climatologists can only provide guidance based on what their long range models tell them and we all know how models perform.<br /><br />Take it day by day or week to week. Don't waste your time looking at the month ahead. <br /><br />My main concern is what will happen in the Gulf of Mexico with the imminent hurricane season. Oil on the surface will reduce the surface albedo of the water which in turn 'should' heat up the water which storms feed off of. I know storms want a deep marine layer of warm SST's but a hot ocean surface will translate heat downward I can guarantee that.Justin 'F5s Only' Hobsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09649694900904751431noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-75549260744370019682010-06-10T11:49:53.254-05:002010-06-10T11:49:53.254-05:00Rob, when you mention pattern change, it makes me ...Rob, when you mention pattern change, it makes me wonder. As we endure more cloudy/cool/wet weather, what is the root cause THIS time around and is it the same thing that was responsible for last year's poor summer? Maybe I'm a pessimist but it sure seems like our summers have shifted for the past few years. I'm hard pressed to recall a recent warm dry summer.Marknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-27767427422296918992010-06-10T10:47:35.316-05:002010-06-10T10:47:35.316-05:00We're in for some rain over the next few days,...We're in for some rain over the next few days, but thankfully the heaviest amounts are expected well to our south and east closer to the warm front and LLJ as Daniel noted earlier. Portions of South Dakota through Minnesota into northern Michigan could be seeing rainfall amounts similar to what southern MB experienced the last weekend of May. <br /><br />Further north over us, we'll likely have more showery precipitation with lighter amounts as the upper trough moves through. Local moderate rainfall amounts possible, but not to the extent further south. Still not very summerlike, with some improvement noted next week, although models keep holding back on that major pattern change that we'd like to see.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-34352986602398202132010-06-10T10:11:49.519-05:002010-06-10T10:11:49.519-05:00Those QPF 48 hour and 1-5 day forecasts are movin...Those QPF 48 hour and 1-5 day forecasts are moving the bullseye north on each update. We've slipped from no QPF for 5 days yesterday to three days of rain.<br /><br />The <<a href="http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_US/anim8ir.html" rel="nofollow">IR satellite</a> gives a hint why..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-67452043242939900112010-06-10T10:00:33.909-05:002010-06-10T10:00:33.909-05:00Another set of NINO (ENSO) web links is available...Another set of NINO (ENSO) web links is available from Robs OBS site under Maps/Models dropdown menu LONG RANGE-ENSO OUTLOOK or at <br /><a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml" rel="nofollow"><i>El Nino Southern Oscillation</i></a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-68890342051812599552010-06-10T08:43:12.362-05:002010-06-10T08:43:12.362-05:00Well yesterday the weekend was looking warm and dr...Well yesterday the weekend was looking warm and dry!<br /><br />Now it looks cloudy and cool!<br />cloudy and cool weekends.<br />Do I see a pattern developing here?daniel Pnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-65104406931934498532010-06-10T08:29:33.481-05:002010-06-10T08:29:33.481-05:00http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_...http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gifAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-10947812407239959612010-06-10T08:27:49.043-05:002010-06-10T08:27:49.043-05:00According to the US Climate Prediction Center, we ...According to the US Climate Prediction Center, we are in for a below normal June-July-August in S. Manitoba. Here's the link: <br /> http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gifAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-74751440895270941162010-06-10T06:44:20.302-05:002010-06-10T06:44:20.302-05:00daniel p..
I don't have a lot of expertise i...daniel p.. <br /><br />I don't have a lot of expertise in this area, but my understanding is that El Nino/La Nina patterns have more of an impact on our winter weather than summer. There doesn't appear to be a strong signal either way with La Nina (or El Nino for that matter) on what kind of summer we'll have.robhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01577519556216420480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-7910479731597526602010-06-09T17:33:36.165-05:002010-06-09T17:33:36.165-05:00Models having problems with the evolving high ampl...Models having problems with the evolving high amplitude pattern. Despite highly amplified ridge building over Central US, most models keep warm front, moisture & LLJ well off to our SE. They blow up lots of QPF along intersection of LLJ and slow moving front or inverted trough from NE Minnesota back towards S Dakota (GFS further north than NAM). Models show surface Colorado low taking shape by midday tomorrow in response to deepening long wave trough over weatern N America. However, the evolution of this system is poorly handled with the system apparently stationary and weakening. Of course, the motion and strength of this system will have a large impact on where LLJ and front stall out.<br /><br />In any case.. I would expect cool, cloudy conditions as front stalls off to our SE and then upper low and cold pool pass providing us with a potentially showery regime.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00949425441824069047noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-48996255738010805452010-06-09T15:53:42.875-05:002010-06-09T15:53:42.875-05:00And, do t-storms look possible any time next 3 day...And, do t-storms look possible any time next 3 days? Doesn't look too likely, but I just have to ask =ÞMaxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09511971659100579935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33386160.post-71991944078960088352010-06-09T13:13:44.176-05:002010-06-09T13:13:44.176-05:00Saving that it is 3 to 4 days away, all your OBS ...Saving that it is 3 to 4 days away, all your OBS Forecasts (X CTV) are predicting a mostly sunny Weekend with moderate temps (eyeball average of 20 to 21)...Not exactly Beach weather but great Golf weather.<br /><br />The contrarian, CTV,which is you visual, is calling for cloud, showers and cool both days.<br /><br />What do you see Rob?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com