Wednesday, January 27, 2010
January to end on cold quiet note
Seasonably cold and quiet weather is on tap over southern Manitoba for the rest of the week into the weekend as high pressure over the Prairies blocks incoming weather systems. A brisk northwest flow of Arctic air today will diminish tonight into Thursday as a ridge of high pressure over Alberta builds into the Dakotas. This will result in more comfortable conditions Thursday and Friday with lighter winds and temperatures near normal. A weak trough of low pressure will move across southern MB on Saturday followed by a reinforcing shot of cold air for Sunday into early next week as another area of Arctic high pressure builds over the province. All in all, a pleasant end to January, which will finish about 4 or 5C above normal thanks to the spell of above normal temperatures the past 2 weeks.
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Where's all these random flurries coming from today?
ReplyDeleteyeah Rob you got some explaining to do! what's with these flurries...DM
ReplyDeleteThose flurries were just associated with some areas of low cloud in the morning, and then another band of cloud in the evening stretching all the way from southern Nunavut. Just some "nuisance" stuff in a northwest flow that occurs from time to time..
ReplyDeleteLooks quiet for the next few days.. models hinting at some possible light snow for us Monday into Monday night as a weak clipper passes to our southwest..
Temps of -30 C were widespread under the ridge last nite... would expect the same over our region tonite. Saving grace is lite SW flow that has already developed, therefore -27/-28 C seems resaonable for YWG with temps into the minus thirties in SE Manitoba.
ReplyDeleteGFS struggling with interplay of el nino and negaitve AO signals it appears. We seem to be right at the battleground with several cold cores/lobes of polar vortex brushing us to the NE. Weak trough comes thru early Sat and truns are winds turn back to the NW. Sat nite looks cold as second arctic ridge builds in from the northern Manitoba.
Temps will be very tricky next week as warm/moist advection off pacific advect over shallow arctic high. GFS depecits clouds overspreading us sometime late Sunday/Monday. This should keep the bitter cold temps off into central Manitoba and NW Ontario. GFS also slower and further south with system it was adverstizing previously.
Rob!
ReplyDeleteEnvironment Canada is calling for -19 C for this upcoming Thursday!!
The weather Network is calling for -2 C
Someone's forecast is going to go
"BUST"!
Daniel.. We will be moderating by the end of the week.. but TWN's -2C for Thursday looks a bit optimistic. I see they're calling for -9C now which seems more reasonable. EC's -19C Thursday is now up to -16C, but that still looks too cold, which is likely the case given the cold bias of the last two days of the forecast.
ReplyDeleteSo it looks like both those forecasts are going to bust, with a high temperature likely half way between the two.
Genial post and this enter helped me alot in my college assignement. Thank you on your information.
ReplyDeleteThis month should end up about 4.1C above normal in Winnipeg. The current mean temp is -13.5C and when today is added, that number will go down to -13.7C. The average mean is -17.8C.
ReplyDeleteIn order for this winter to end up above normal, the average temperature in February will have to be roughly -12C or warmer. December was well below normal, so it will take a fair bit of warm weather to be offset.
Dan GF
ReplyDeleteIn a previous post your local expert suggested an ENSO AO influenced cold and wet March April.
Given this and your Jan 26th post on fall/winter RRV conditions (2006..2010 Analog), is there a March April update planned.
Tricky forecat in terms of overnite lows... with cold high pressure overhead potential for cold temps yet again. However the models have long advertized warm moist advection above 600 hPa overnite. This should allow for high clouds to slowly overspread our region from the SW by dawn even as surface high pressure sits in NW Minnesota.
ReplyDeleteConditions moderate like Rob mentioned as upper flow becomes more zonal allowing clouds/warmer air and associated disturbances to finally move in. Anything near zero looks unlikely with best chance for that further south. However if clouds hang around mild overnite lows will bump up our mean temps above average for early Feb.
Hi Jim
ReplyDeleteKind of confused by the question. I do post any info that our local climate guy here issues when I get the chance. The latest red river flood outlook was issued last Friday with the next one due in mid Feb. Right now...a cross between a 2006 and 2009 flood would appear to be best estimate in our southern basin.
Thanks Dan GF
ReplyDeleteThis is one of the previous items I was referring to. In my not too reliable memory there was alsowhat might have been an NWS update in Dec which was more specific to Mar and April (or late spring) cold and wet weather,
Jan 05 .. Dan - GF said...
Our local office climate guru and myself were talking about long term trends into early spring.....
But as our local climate guy said we are dealing with a very very unique situation with a strong negative AO and a strong western based El-Nino. He did say that looking back at some years that fit the current temp-wise does show a higher likelihood of a colder than normal spring
Gotcha Jim yes I will post an update when he does one. Our local climate guy does them frequently (as time permits of course) He wears several hats as well all do. But so far nothing really changed from what he thinks will be a cooler and wetter spring at this point. But any more info I will let you know. Thanks
ReplyDeleteI do have a very recent update today...we were talking about the Stratospheric Warming going on now. It should impact our area this month or maybe into early March. The idea seems to be that this SSW will split the polar vortex with the coldest air residing over Siberia with a weaker piece over Hudson Bay. That would keep our area in general northwest flow aloft with seasonably cold air but also pretty dry into early March.
ReplyDeleteOfficial high in Winnipeg for Thursday was -10C, exactly halfway between TWN's -2C forecast, and EC's -19C. The poor man's ensemble wins again..
ReplyDeleteBrim over I to but I contemplate the list inform should acquire more info then it has.
ReplyDelete