Blizzard conditions have developed over the Red River valley this morning as strong northerly winds gusting to 70 or 80 km/h combine with falling snow to give poor visibilities in snow and blowing snow across the area. Travel is not advised across most highways in southern MB with several highway closures including the TransCanada between Winnipeg and Portage La Prairie and Hwy 75 to the US border. Whiteout conditions are being reported outside the city of Winnipeg with occasional zero visibility in exposed areas even within the city at times. Many rural schools are closed with bus service cancelled in most areas including Winnipeg. Blizzard conditions will continue through the morning into the afternoon before conditions begin to improve later this afternoon into this evening as snow diminishes and winds ease up. All in all.. a difficult start to the work week, with travel not recommended throughout the Red River valley. (See Free Press article on blizzard over southern MB along with photos and video)
Monday, January 25, 2010
Blizzard conditions slamming Red River valley and southern MB..travel not advised
Blizzard conditions have developed over the Red River valley this morning as strong northerly winds gusting to 70 or 80 km/h combine with falling snow to give poor visibilities in snow and blowing snow across the area. Travel is not advised across most highways in southern MB with several highway closures including the TransCanada between Winnipeg and Portage La Prairie and Hwy 75 to the US border. Whiteout conditions are being reported outside the city of Winnipeg with occasional zero visibility in exposed areas even within the city at times. Many rural schools are closed with bus service cancelled in most areas including Winnipeg. Blizzard conditions will continue through the morning into the afternoon before conditions begin to improve later this afternoon into this evening as snow diminishes and winds ease up. All in all.. a difficult start to the work week, with travel not recommended throughout the Red River valley. (See Free Press article on blizzard over southern MB along with photos and video)
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I have to admit I never thought it would get this bad!!
ReplyDeleteThe winds along with the falling snow is what makes this a dangerous situation!
For the first time since I moved to Winnipeg 11 years ago, I've experienced whiteout conditions within city limits.. Sterling Lyon Parkway east of Kenaston.. nil visibility! Had to slow to a crawl to get through it. I can only imagine what it's like outside the perimeter. Impossible to say how much new snow has fallen overnight.. bare spots in some areas.. 30 cm drifts in others. Most likely around 5 cm of actual snow.. but the amount is not the big story today.
ReplyDeleteNeedless to say.. stay home if you can today, especially outside the city.. this is the real deal!
This is probably the worst blizzard I've seen since I started watching weather. The first half of the storm (the 'slop storm') wasn't all that impressive in terms of snow, just that it was so warm for January. The second half of the storm (today), is very intense. According to RADAR, there may still be a fair bit of snow to fall (relatively speaking), which would make overall totals impressive. Usually when we have received blizzard conditions it was only with 2 to 4cm of snow. This time it may well be 5 to 10cm, depending on your location.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see the results tomorrow when the wind dies off.
Near zero visibility even in suburban areas protected by houses here in st.vital. I'm currently on a transit bus as I have no choice but to venture out in this storm also. Since I got in the bus, it must have gotten stuck about 5-10 times...eek. Rob is right, if you can, stay home!
ReplyDeleteJust measured the snow and water equivalent in Steinbach. My gauge picked up about 8mm of water, and based on that I can determine that the snow ratio is about 10:1. However, I'm not sure how much snow has actually fallen. The gauge may have picked up a bit of blowing snow, but I think it is mostly snowfall, due to its sheltered location. So as of now I can only estimate that Steinbach has received 5 to 10cm.
ReplyDeletePortage is really taken it today!
ReplyDelete85 km/h wind gust!
Bad down here....the 15 inches of frozen snow on the ground isnt moving but the 2-3 inches of fresh stuff is and even in town quite bad after daybreak. GF and Fargo schools closed and Univ of ND closed I-29 is closing as well I did see Morris MN with a wind gust to 50 kt (58 mph)
ReplyDeleteWelcome back winter!!
ReplyDeleteFirst a blizzard then very cold!!
Wonderful.....
Daniel P
ReplyDeleteI am with you...just hated the slop over the weekend this is so much better! Weather like this makes my heart pound fast due to excitement. This is why I moved to where I did. Does look mighty cold now for an extended period with below normal temps likley (overall) into March as blocking returns to northeast Canada.
Rob!
ReplyDeleteI see why they say Portage and Main is the windiest corner in Canada
It is like a white hurricane with the winds blowing in every direction!
The flags look like they are going to go airborne!
Blizzard conditions are easing over Winnipeg and the northern RRV as falling snow dissipates across the region. Very strong northerly winds gusting to 70 or 80 km/h however will continue to give areas of blowing snow with local whiteouts at times especially in open areas outside the city. Caution still advised until the winds drop this evening and tonight..
ReplyDeleteIs there a parallel between this pattern and the winter of 2006/07? Moderately strong El Nino now, moderately weak one in that winter. Unusually powerful winter storms in both winters. February 2007 was well below normal for temperature; same expected for Feb 2010. What do the experts think on this?
ReplyDeleteDan - GF,
ReplyDeleteIn a previous posting, you mentioned that the heaviest liquid precip amounts occured in the Fargo area.
Compared to this time last year, where does the southern Red River basin stand in terms of precipitation? How does this year's soil moisture at freeze-up compare to last year's?
Since the storm is over, I thought I would add in a few notes about model accuracy.
ReplyDeleteAs I mentioned when commenting on another post, the 18Z GFS from Friday had been very accurate up until Sunday. It had predicted the exact precipitation amounts up to that point, although it did struggle with precip types. I also mentioned that it predicted 10 to 15cm of snow on Sunday night and into Monday.
Well the results are in and I would say the GFS was by far the most accurate and consistent model for predicting this storm. The GFS did indeed come through, as actual snowfall in Steinbach was about 10cm. The actual water equivalent was 8.8mm, just slightly lower than the 12mm predicted by the GFS about 60 hours prior.
The 18Z GFS was predicting a storm total of 26.3mm for Steinbach. Actual storm total was 25.3mm, which all things considered, is probably as close as you will ever get to a model forecast.
As you can tell, I am quite pleased with how the GFS handled this storm, while it didn't get the precip types exactly right, that is overshadowed by its performance on precip amounts.
P.S. Storm total for snowfall was 17cm in Steinbach.
The simulations did a great job forecasting this blizzard event. Even on Sunday evening along Waverley, near Bishop Grandin the snow was just smoking across the road. In previous years I've encountered whiteouts along Taylor Avenue when passing by the open fields. This snow event didn't shut down the city, but it was one to remember.
ReplyDeleteStorm total 21 cm in Charleswood.. 13 cm of heavy wet snow Saturday, and another 8 cm or so last night into this morning with winds producing a 60-80 cm drift in my front yard. Snowblower sure came in handy this weekend!
ReplyDeleteSnow poll winners.. 20-25 cm! (honourable mention to the 15-20cm group)
Andrew..
ReplyDeleteNWS Grand Forks put together a good discussion on how this winter is shaping up, and relevant climatic influences. Click on my name for details. 2006-7 was not mentioned as an analogous winter in their research..
I am not at all impressed how the models including GFS handled this system. They had a poor handle on the evolution of this system particularly the transfer of energy to southern low. Sometimes in math for example, you can still reach the correct answer if you make two mistakes that cancel one another out. This does not mean the solved the problem correctly. It is also very difficult to estimate snowfall and water equivalent from this storm to validate model QPF with much precision.
ReplyDeleteDaniel..
ReplyDeleteI would agree that none of the models handled the more 'technical aspects' of this storm very well. However, when the general public reads a forecast they don't care about where the actual track of the low is, or where the energy is going. All they care about is what kind of precipitation to expect and how much of it. Maybe the GFS just got lucky this time, but for a non-weather inclined person, the GFS served its purpose very well.
Dan - GF,
ReplyDeleteIn a previous posting, you mentioned that the heaviest liquid precip amounts occured in the Fargo area.
Compared to this time last year, where does the southern Red River basin stand in terms of precipitation? How does this year's soil moisture at freeze-up compare to last year's?
2:43 PM, January 25, 2010
Hi
For Fargo here is the data from the coooperative observer in North Moorhead (we use his data for snow/water in the winter)...
Sep 08 -- 5.94 pcpn
Oct 08 -- 4.94 pcpn 1.4 snow
Nov 08 -- 1.10 pcpn 1.1 snow
Dec 08 -- 1.80 pcpn 33.5 snow
Jan 09 -- .55 pcpn 7.3 snow
Sep 09 -- 2.06 pcpn
Oct 09 -- 5.64 pcpn 1.2 snow
Nov 09 -- 0.41 pcpn 0.2 snow
Dec 09 -- 1.85 pcpn 24.4 snow
Jan 09 -- 1.57 pcpn 10.5 snow
Overall this season running a bit below last year but not by much in the far southern end of the RRV. From Grand Forks northward it was much drier in October.
Going into the freeze-up... in 2008 we had a very wet Sept-Oct period and then was hit with a rapid freeze-up in early to mid November and the water was unable to filter through the soil. In 2009...freeze-up was several weeks later and thus the water was able to penetrate the soil much better. Still though had quite a bit of standing water in the fields at freeze up in the southern valley.
So...overall not quite as bad as last year at this time when comparing soil moisture in the fall and to date pcpn for Oct-Jan period. But still wet and flows going into the ice forming period were still in the 95th percentale...just not quite record flows like in 2008.
Right now the analog year compared to is 2006 for 2010 flood. Of course this very much subject to change with March weather as always the wild card.
Dan - GF
Ugh Of course in last post - last line- Jan 09 pcpn was for Jan 10
ReplyDeleteAgain the question becomes how low will we go... mixing and possibly some clouds will persist thru tomorrow but column cools considerably with 850 hPa temps between -24 to -26 C as arctic vortex/cold core rotates thru. I doubt we will get above -20 C tomorrow aft with bitter windchills persisting. Attention then turns to arctic ridge and shallower cold airmass that will move in from the west by late Thursday/ overnite Fri. Potential for very cold temps and strong inversion with temps below -30 C in traditional cold pockets.. once again UMOS way behind the curve in terms of temps.
ReplyDeleteHigh looks to stall out to our SE and will be dealing with residual arctic air trapped in RRV even as significant warm advection occurs at 850 hPa ahead of interesting looking disturbance (upper flow turns SW ahean of it). Temps may briefly moderate to low teens below zero as another shot of snow moves in late Sunday. Wouldn't you know it.. looks like another terrible Monday morning commute at this point O.o
GFS shows upper vortex lifting back towards Baffin Island but with much of Canada in an elongated upper trough with very strong baroclinic zone setting up right along 49th parallel. Any distrubances tracking along the int'l border will have a very strong thermal gradient to play with. At the same time 2nd arctic ridge builds down into northern Alberta... potential for extreme cold especially north of trans Canada hwy.. will have to see, but hpopefully we will see enough clouds near baroclinic zone that we are spared the full impact of that airmass.
Thanks Dan - GF.
ReplyDeleteFrom time to time, the media in Wpg report that we're in the middle of a wet cycle. Usually it's in conjunction with a story on a spring flood or heavy rain event. The reported length of this cycle seems to range anywhere from 10-30 years.
Does anyone know of any data to back this claim up? If so, how much longer do we have left before transitioning to something drier? What's the return period of the wet cycle that we're reportedly in??
Very cold out there today!!
ReplyDeleteThe air has a misty look to it with all the blowing snow being lifted into the air!!!
2km visibility at the airport with winds gusting to 55 km/h!!!
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