Friday, January 08, 2010

Brisk winds Saturday.. then major warmup begins..

A major warmup will be spreading east across the Prairies this weekend into next week, with temperatures rising to well above normal values over southern MB. Before then, Winnipeg and the Red River valley will have to put up with one more cold day Saturday as brisk southerly winds begin to flush out the remaining Arctic air. Don't let that Saturday high of -12C fool you.. it won't be reached until late in the day, with gusty south winds adding a noticeable wind chill much of the day. By Sunday, winds will drop off and milder air will be pushing in from Saskatchewan.. allowing temperatures to climb into the minus single digits over Winnipeg and southern MB. Even milder conditions are forecast to spread into southern MB by Tuesday, with above freezing temperatures possible in some areas, especially favoured downslope areas such as east of the Riding Mountains (Dauphin, McCreary), north of the Turtle Mtns (Boissevain, Killarney) and the western Red River valley (Portage, Morden) Even Winnipeg may approach the melting point by Tuesday. The mild conditions are expected to continue through much of the upcoming week.

25 comments:

  1. It's going to be a slow recovery for us in the valley today.. those cold southerlies keep drawing up that Arctic air to our south. Regina suffered the same effect yesterday, with a cold valley wind keeping their temperatures from recovering as much as it could have (went from -31C to only -22c even though 850 mb temperatures rose to 0c) Given a 9C recovery, that would give us a high of about -15C this afternoon. Not pleasant with that south wind! Ironic that we need a northwest wind to bring us warmer air! (MB hot spot right now is Lynn Lake at -12c!)

    The south winds are not bad news for everyone though. Note that southerly downslope winds north of Turtle Mtns have already boosted temperatures to the minus 13C mark in Boissevain and Killarney this morning.

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  2. Like those Alberta chinook winds from the NW?

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  3. Rob, I'm not looking forward to the Dogs walk along the river in a few minutes. Those winds coming up the river are lifting the snow over 60 feet up in the air and then driving the snow parallel to the ground past our balcony. I can just imagine what its doing on the NW side. Survival permitting and once the paws thaw I'll look forward to other firsthand reports

    Great Trib pic and story.

    Jim

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  4. Nasty cold out there.. but hey, at least it's not snowing like in Florida this morning! Snowflurries and sleet reported from Naples to Orlando this morning.. temperatures near +1C. Click on my name for story...

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  5. Here is a good one for you...

    In Florida they have issued a wind chill warning, because WC values will drop into the -4 to -7 range. Here is the text - I converted it to Celsius (is this a joke?)

    "A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF -4 OR COLDER ARE EXPECTED."

    I suppose -4 is very cold for Florida, but it is hilarious to read about this when you consider that a -4 wind chill would be a balmy day up here.

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  6. Great Miami pics & story Rob ..love those snowmen.

    Also interesting story from GFKs What Has Become of our El Nino Winter Click on my My Name or

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=46100&source=0

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  7. Never made it to the River Bank...Smarter Dog Dragged me home..

    Jim

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  8. Thanks for the link Jim!

    Excellent Read on the "What happened to El NINO"????

    +2 on Tuesday!!!!!

    Break out the sunscreen and the beach ball!!!!

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  9. Yeah, some of those cold weather impact statements from Florida can sound rather amusing to us.. I saw one from Miami advsing residents to "dress in layers" if they ventured outside.

    Until you realize that we turn just as wimpy when we get one of those cold outbreaks in June, when the daytime high is only 5C, and parents are dressed in parkas watching their kids soccer games! (been there, done that!)

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  10. One only has to look at the noon conditions at Portage LP and Winnipeg to see what kind of effect the Red River valley has on our wind and temperatures. As of noon, Winnipeg was -22C with southerly winds of 37 gusting 50 km/h giving a windchill of -36. At the same time, Portage was -12C with a light south wind of only 12 km/h, windchill -18C. So an hour drive west of the city will feel almost 20 degrees warmer than Winnipeg!

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  11. Unfortunately that fine PLP Diner Horfrost (see excellent FreePress review yesterday) isn't open until later this month

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  12. -19 in the back yard. Dogs stayed out for an hour late this morning and actually didn't want to come in, frozen as they were. Second time out after lunch they wanted back in fast. That wind is cold! The snow is blowing good in the fields across the highway.

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  13. From what I see looking at the model data at work...the next mild day will be Tuesday but surface winds will be south-southeast again in the valley. Model surface temps keep it around 25 or so in the RRV and even MEX MOS guidance from GFS (which can be too warm in these cases) keeps highs generally in the 26-27 range for Grand Forks and Hallock.

    Wednesday will see a switch to northwest wind which is much better mixing but 850 and 925 mb temps fall too.

    I would be suprised if YWG HCO or GFK reaches -1C next week. Outside the valley over the higher terrain around the Pembina escarpment and to the east in the forests -1C is more likely with +1 or +2 psbl Tuesday up in west central Manitoba in downslope areas.

    By the way...I know the Dauphin area sees downslope affects with winds from the southwest....but is the Dauphin weather station located higher elevation than the town??? Just wondering...as I know you first see the effects of warm air aloft in these shallow arctic cases at Dauphin first. Also in Minot where the ASOS in Minot is at the airport which is on a hill northside of town and thus gets better mixing then in town.

    Dan

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  14. The link Jim provided from our office is a write up from our local climate expert.

    For those who have not ventured south of the border...it sure seems that we have a whole lot more snow on the ground then Winnipeg. In town Grand Forks most areas snow depth run about 20-24 inches (my backyard) with snow depths down around Lake Traverse where the Red begins running on average 25 to 29 inches (Milbank SD). So lots of snow our way. Snow is still mostly dry due to the cold weather...but given a few warm days in the later winter it will start to get a bit more water to it. Our snow water from cores down around our office which is in a more open area from snow depths close to 15 inches shows SW running 1.7 to 2.0 inches. Nothing too great.

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  15. Dan..

    Dauphin Airport site is located a couple miles south of the town, so they're just about the same elevation (airport is about 30 feet higher). The Riding Mtns rise sharply some 1500 feet a few miles south of the airport. The downsloping effect is quite evident for them, as well as east of the Riding Mtns in the McCreary area.

    Will be interesting to see how mild we get on Tuesday and Wednesday. I agree that Tuesday won't be as mild in the RRV due to a southerly wind, but I think we have a shot at 0C on Wednesday as we get a westerly flow before the colder air works in. Both days however will likely see some areas rising above zero C, namely the downslope areas I noted. Even if we don't make it above zero here in the valley, it'll be a lot better than -20C with a -35 windchill!

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  16. Thanks Rob...

    I agree wednesday just behind the front with a west or northwest stands the best chance...despite it being cooler aloft that period.

    Thanks about the Dauphin info. I love to learn about local topo affects.

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  17. Look out for the freezing rain tonight!!!!

    Looks like a band of frezzing entering southern Manitoba right now!

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  18. A lot better out there today.. winds are light and temperatures are up to -13C, making it feel over 20 degrees warmer than yesterday.

    Crazy cold in Florida though.. most places below freezing this morning, down to -8C some spots. Miami at +2C this morning with northwest winds gusting to 25 mph. Cold shelters opened up in Key West because temperatures have dropped below.. yikes.. +10C! Looks like a big hit for the citrus industry down there as the cold continues for the next few days. They're saying one benefit of the cold is that it may thin out the reptile population down there which has been exploding in recent years. (click on my name for story)

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  19. Dan..

    FYI.. I have about a 20 cm (8") snowdepth in my backyard which is a good average for the Winnipeg area and northern RRV in sheltered areas. Snowpack is a lot less though over open fields where winds have blown it away.. more like 5-10 cm (2-4") at best. Snowdepth is deeper over the southern RRV due to heavier snowfalls in December with about 25-40 cm (10-16") reported from some of our co-op observers.

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  20. Rob

    On wednesday, thursday it looks like some snow etc. Any ideas on amounts or is it going to be more of the skiff type of snow.

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  21. Daryl..I don't see any snow for us on Wednesday as we'll be in the mild sector with any snow well north of us. Cold front pushes through Thursday which could give us a dusting of snow, but at this point, I don't see much. GLB is most aggressive with amounts with Thursday's cold frontal passage showing 5-10 cm across southern MB, but to me that looks overdone given the pattern.

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  22. Looks like those gusty south valley winds will be blowing again on Tuesday.. but this time, they won't be nearly as cold as Saturday's winds since most of the Arctic air has been flushed out to our south now. But I think it's still going to be a challenge to break the freezing mark here in the RRV Tuesday due to those southerly winds. I'm thinking -1C or -2C for a high for Winnipeg. Downslope areas should have no problems rising above zero Tuesday.. with highs of +2 to +5C likely (+8C forecast for Dauphin!)

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  23. Postcard like HORFROST views this morning in St Vital Park along the River. SB Spectacular during sunrise.

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  24. Those frigid temps down south and in Europe plan to stay awhile.

    Forecast Hi temps this week for Varadero, Cuba about 90 miles south of the Florida Keys will rise to only 19C mid week. They will be down in the low to mid teen highs by next weekend. Windchill there this am is 8C. Usually a pleasant 22 at this time of the morning.

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  25. www.onlineuniversalwork.com

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