Monday, June 08, 2009
Website update
I continue to have problems uploading my VWS weather station graphics onto the Shaw webservers. I've updated my website with some other images and graphics, including current conditions from my Charleswood station from Weather Underground, but it's not ideal. I'll let you know if and when there's any status change.
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Thaks Rob, Hang in there. Either presentation is just fine for most of us average weather hobbyits who check your site for the "poop from group" anaylysis in your blog. It's always interesting and provides expanded knowledge into the public forecast. Chris in Westwood.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. I moved to the west coast a few months ago, but still check in once and a while to get the scoop. The discussion is great and I have used this blog to continue being a hobbyist weatherman - and I learn a bit more each time I visit :)
ReplyDeleteBreak out the shades, get the sunscreen ready, next weekend looks like it could be......
ReplyDeleteahhhh.... well i sure hope that forecast comes true for next Saturday and Sunday!
"I moved to the west coast a few months ago."
ReplyDeleteBoy, did you time that right this year! :)
I just heard that Larry Cosgrove is predicting an above-normal summer for southern Manitoba. Given his record in previous years, I would certainly place a lot of weight on his prediction.
ReplyDeleteThe models continue to show a warm-up developing by this weekend. The pattern could turn out to be an Omega Block, judging by the upper-air predictions.
Larry Cosgrove may well suspect that eventually we will see an above average pattern here (as Rob and others have also stated). However the following is an excerpt from his latest public 10 day outlook...
ReplyDelete"Teleconnections on the Rex block (with core 500MB heights over Nunavut AR and the Northwest Territories) would point toward very cool readings over the Midwest and Northeast (as opposed to the moderate thermal means shown on the computer outlooks)"
He goes to state in his 10-15 day forecast:
"Deep closed low moves to the Gulf of Alaska; +PNA ridge cools midwest, northeast"
Clearly S Manitoba adjoins the upper midwest.. so the question still is: when and how far east will the upper ridge get established.
GFS continues to struggle with interplay of western ridge and Hudson Bay Vortex. The cold pool well be in close proximity to southern Manitoba at least until June 15. It then tries to drop it over the Great Lakes and rebuilds the vortex over Hudson Bay. Obviously a lot of model uncertainty present. I will believe the heat when I see and feel it...
This upcoming weekend looks like a "STUNNER" !
ReplyDeleteWith high's in the low to mid 20 C things will finally starting to feel like summer!
I surprised how much the GFS continues to struggle with this pattern. It is showing rather dramatic fluctuations from run to run and cannot buy into one particular solution. From the latest run I see a NNW upper flow early this weekend. Such a set up is notorious for keeping warmth at bay off to our west. In fact GFS hints at back door front dropping down overnite Friday. Rob, what do you make of it?
ReplyDeletePretty much all the models are showing a warming trend to at least NORMAL temperatures by this weekend!
ReplyDeleteSome such as the GFS is showing it being delayed by a day or so, but the consensus is a change in the jet stream will allow the warm air to flood east!
WHEW!
When I look at the models I see an exceptionally complex pattern with multiple opportunities for the above average forecast to bust. We all want summer like temps to move, but we must retain a healthy dose of skepticism towards what we see in the models.
ReplyDeleteLobes of energy will rotate around the polar vortex. One such wave may push a back door front thru us late Friday/early Saturday. With cold pool over Northern Manitoba/ NW Ontario and NE flow coming off cool high pressure... Saturday has the potential to be colder than anticipated. I am out to lunch here Rob?
The other part of the equation is very complex Rex Block (upper high over western prairies above low in SW United States). Shortwave energy coming up in SW flow has potential to undercut Prairie heat ridge. This would also give us cooler temps with clouds suppressing an other wise warm air mass.
Given that we will essentially be at the cross roads of all these features, I would not put a lot of stock in the model solutions for our area beyond 4 or 5 days.
My analysis is very similar to Daniel P's. The GFS has now shown for days, a very similar warm-up scenario. Obviously temperatures haven't been exactly the same from run to run, but overall the trend indicates warming.
ReplyDeleteI anticipate that a cooler day will be thrown into the mix every so often, but the overall trend favours warming, which an idea which I am pretty well sold on by now. The models show it, the big forecasters are calling for it, and I sense it.
Interesting comments on seemingly endless delays to warm ups over the Prairies. I'm in Srn Ontario and here too we have been fighting hard to get into some warmer air. We're now into our 4th month of spring (almost unheard of even down here) and as long as that complicated rex block and the upper high over Greenland stick around, we're gonna be stuck with that unusually active and southward displaced jet stream. Hopefully we will all see a change and sudden start into summer heat later this month!
ReplyDelete"the overall trend favours warming, which an idea which I am pretty well sold on by now. The models show it, the big forecasters are calling for it, and I sense it."
ReplyDelete..but this excerpt is from your website:
"It should remain warm into early next week, but after that it is hard to tell since models are all over the place. Is the cold pattern over? Hard to say. We could fall right back into it later in the month, but it is too early to make that call."
Yeah, I've been watching the GFS for a bit now, and nervously expecting another Arctic ridge building in to rob our nice warm weekend. However, GFS has backed off on the strength of that back door cooling for Saturday.. so I think we should get into the low 20s still. Certainly by Sunday into early next week, low to mid 20s look likely before an increasing chance of some unsettled weather moving in mid to late week along with cloud and cooler temps..
ReplyDeleteGlad to hear we're not alone in our impatience with summer to arrive, Kuhny! At least you've had a taste of it at times!
I didn't write that bit on my website. However, I do agree with my fellow forecaster. He sees warming going into next week, but obviously we can't tell where the weather will go beyond what the models show.
ReplyDeleteTotal YTD Days over 20C... By July 1 we likely won't match YTD April 30 1980' or for that matter if we continue in this March 31 1972. though forecasts have been frequent
ReplyDeleteWhat Is the record (for fewest)???
look at all the "popcorn" showers today!
ReplyDeleteLot of nice little towering cumulus all over!
A quick heavy rain one minute then a sunny and warm weather the next minute!
With so much cold air aloft and strong daytime heating I would assume that we could see some small pea size hail with some of the stronger showers!
ReplyDelete"but obviously we can't tell where the weather will go beyond what the models show"
ReplyDelete..so why were you calling for an unbroken stretch of above normal temperatures thru August?
Daniel...
ReplyDeleteI don't think it is necessary to play this game. We obviously have different views on the weather, which is fine. However, I don't think we need to critique each other on every comment.
I appreciate that everyone has different views, that is what makes forecasting interesting. Nevertheless, we don't need to argue over who is right.
I posed a legitimate question. In science (of which meteorology is part of), if one believes a claim is unsubstantiated or inconsistent, then one should challenge it... that is no game. If we are hear to learn from one another, this should be the first lesson.
ReplyDelete