Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Website update #2
Well, things continue to go from bad to worse with my website. While attempting to fix the problem with my files uploading to Shaw, I inadvertently deleted my drop down menu sub directory. So I have no drop down menu right now in case you're wondering what happened to it. Note that if you click on the CTV temperature map, you'll get a link to Rob's Obs maps page which has some of the maps and images from the drop down menu. But I'm still having FTP problems with Shaw. So my website will be "Rob's Obs lite" for the next little while, as I don't have time to troubleshoot or redesign the website right now. Note that you can get updated weather for Charleswood from the PJ School weather station, but I don't know how much longer that site will be up once school is out. Note also that wind data from that site is not functioning.
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Very gusty this afternoon. Nocturnal/elevated storms the past few days have been limited to North Dakota in region of deep layered moisture. That has allowed to heat out enough for some surface based convection to initiate. Again, a cell tried to form right over the city along with a lake breeze cell near Winnipeg Beach.
ReplyDeleteCut off low/ moisture slowly work their way NE.. so nocturnal storms may become more numerous tonite. Difficult to say with any confidence though... especially since we are lacking west to east frontal structure and upper jet energy to enhance isentropic lift.
If debris cloud clears off, diurnal storms are possible. However, with shear lacking it will be difficult for them to stay organized.
Looks like main trough at the surface doesn't come thru until Friday... so plenty of opportunities for unsettled weather. Again though, I would like to see more of that jet stream energy come up from the central plains before getting too excited about anything.
Looks like next week could be very active. A trough digs into Manitoba, but stalls out, leaving us right in the middle of a potent jet stream. A number of systems are poised to move in and out, giving numerous chances for severe weather.
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't look like the rest of this week will be all that fruitful in terms of storms. The moisture and instability are there, but there is no shear. This will seriously limit the explosive potential of storms. However, we may still get something interesting...
Rob!!!
ReplyDeleteSounds like SHAW is giving you nothing but a headache!
Is shaw the only company that you can use for your website????
Shaw is looking into the problem.. hopefully they can resolve the issues. Up to this point, Shaw has been quite reliable, so I'm willing to wait for a fix.
ReplyDeletePASPC is indicating a moderate risk for severe storms over southern Manitoba today. Finally something decent!
ReplyDeleteI agree !
ReplyDeleteAll the parameters are in place!
Also the main difference this time around compared to last week is the ample moisture along with hot temperatures!
Lets see what happens this afternoon
Hot and humid weather today will certainly provide the potential for strong thunderstorms this afternoon, but overall shear is very weak with light flow above 850 mb. No upper jet support with weak frontal forcing. Better dynamics south of the border in the slight to moderate severe threat area.
ReplyDeleteNonetheless, with dewpoints pushing 20C today over southern MB and capes of 2000 j/kg or more, isolated severe thunderstorms likely this afternoon even with lack of good upper dynamics. Strong slow moving thunderstorms with large hail possible, although very heavy rainfall may be the greatest threat given the slack flow.