It was a frosty start to the first weekend of June with a hard freeze reported across much of southern MB this morning. In Winnipeg, the temperature dropped to an incredible -4.6C at Winnipeg airport, easily smashing the previous record low for today's date of -1.7C set way back in 1888. In fact, the -4.6C reading is Winnipeg airport's coldest June temperature ever (previous record low -3.3C June 3 1964, records began 1938), and the second coldest June temperature in Winnipeg since records began in 1872, second only to the all time June low of -6.1C set June 1 1888. (Prior to 1938, Winnipeg weather records were taken from St John's college in downtown Winnipeg starting in 1872) Frost was reported across the city, with only the downtown core escaping the freeze with the Forks registering a low of +3C. Here in Charleswood, my site reported a low of -1.5C, the coldest June reading ever at my station.
Saturday, June 06, 2009
Coldest June morning in 120 years shatters Winnipeg record
It was a frosty start to the first weekend of June with a hard freeze reported across much of southern MB this morning. In Winnipeg, the temperature dropped to an incredible -4.6C at Winnipeg airport, easily smashing the previous record low for today's date of -1.7C set way back in 1888. In fact, the -4.6C reading is Winnipeg airport's coldest June temperature ever (previous record low -3.3C June 3 1964, records began 1938), and the second coldest June temperature in Winnipeg since records began in 1872, second only to the all time June low of -6.1C set June 1 1888. (Prior to 1938, Winnipeg weather records were taken from St John's college in downtown Winnipeg starting in 1872) Frost was reported across the city, with only the downtown core escaping the freeze with the Forks registering a low of +3C. Here in Charleswood, my site reported a low of -1.5C, the coldest June reading ever at my station.
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Barely escaped frost in the city of Steinbach, with a low of 0.4C. At the Steinbach airport the low was just below zero.
ReplyDeleteThis weather keeps getting more ridiculous.. Dickinson ND reporting 1/4 mile visibility in heavy snow. Medicine Hat snowing, as well as Cypress Hills and Crowsnest/Pincher Creek area where snowfall warning is in effect. Click on my name for webcam links..
ReplyDeleteLow clouds finally moved in around 5 AM... too little, too late. I am not sure if it formed around sunrise or was another band of persistent low clouds which advected in.
ReplyDeleteThat -4.6 C was the coldest station report in the region, CWB sites off to the NW were all between -2 and -3 C. The highway 1 and 2 corridor west Winnipeg had several -3 to -4 C readings.
Higher clouds associated with warm air advection at 850 and 700 hPa already crossing the border. Fairly impressive band of precip from SE N Dakota to SW Saskatchewan lifting NE. The moist advection regime and SE LLJ continue to lift northwards today. Looks like it will reach southern RRV as drizzle/ mist by evening.
As lead disturbance moves off to the west, the main trough ejects out and re energizes LLJ and warm advection. Nose of SE LLJ will be over us by Monday morning. I suspect steadier rain will start overspreading region from SW to NE.. perhaps reaching Winnipeg by dawn Monday. Question is how long upper low will hang around over us next week.
David Phillips is predicting a warm summer for Manitoba, with above-normal temperatures beginning late next week and stretching through August.
ReplyDeleteThe models have been showing a warm-up to normal or above normal temperatures for Thursday/Friday next week, so I can certainly agree with his prediction.
The models have been showing a warm up in the long range for a long time and it never gets here!
ReplyDeleteI 'll believe it when it gets here!
The models have been too aggressive in weakening the high latitude blocking pattern in place for a while now. They keep trying to expand the west coast ridge over us and give us summer like weather. By the end of the extended period, GFS shows polar vortex re-building over Hudson Bay.
ReplyDeleteWill the jetstream eventually lift north of us? It is possible and we have already discussed analogues like 1997. However, near normal temps in the short range certainly do not ensure the emergence of a sustained summer like pattern. David Phillips is merely speculating based on long range model data (dubious if you ask me) and analogue years with waning La Nina trending to ENSO neutral conditions.
There is feedback between dynamic and thermodynamic factors which may conspire to keep us in this cold pattern. Very heavy snow cover and ice over western Hudson Bay are re-enforcing the longwave pattern (displaced polar vortex over us)... I would like to see that disappear before we start talking about a hot pattern.
I personally have confidence in David Phillips. He may use Environment Canada models, but his predictions are usually accurate. If I was in his position, I wouldn't stick my neck out and start making prediction unless I had some level of confidence in them.
ReplyDeleteI am counting on the models being correct. Which means that a nice pattern will begin to unfold late this week.
To suggest that long range forecasts (including those from David Phillips) are often accurate is laughable.
ReplyDeleteHe had earlier predicted that Southern Ontario would receive 25 days of at least 30 C by June 15... needless to say he has amended his forecast to say that June will be below normal now.
This forecast contradicts his own agency's outlook of below normal temperatures this summer. Several other meteorologists have called for a cool summer. How do we know what the Hudson Bay Vortex will do this summer with above average snow and ice cover? Please offer your rationale for putting so much stock in that particular forecast.
David Phillips has built a reputation over the years for being a good forecaster and climatologist. Inevitably forecasts will be wrong, but you can't be cynical about David Phillips because of his position or association with EC.
ReplyDeleteQuote:
ReplyDelete"you can't be cynical about David Phillips because of his position or association with EC"
...I at no point was. I stated clearly that long range forecasts whatever the source are inaccurate.
Phillips has become a celebrity in the Canadian popular media. A lot of what he says quite frankly comes across as pop psychology (about how we have to toughen up to deal with cold weather etc). He has carved out a niche for himself in this regard but I am not particularly impressed by his forecasting abilities.
I have not reviewed his scholarly publications so I will not comment further one his capacity as a climatologist. Remember... just because someone is well known in the media does not make them the brightest or best qualified in their field.
Back to the topic of our immediate weather, radar returns now pushing as far north as Morris. Doubtful if any precip is reaching the ground however. Model sounding shows dry layer sandwiched between 700 hPa and shallow moisture from evapotranspiration.
Barely escaped frost in the city of Steinbach, with a low of 0.4C. At the Steinbach airport the low was just below zero.
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