Issues with the Shaw webserver are preventing my website from showing current conditions from my weather station. Shaw is looking at it, but so far, no luck in resolving the issue. My weather station is still updating data onto the web, which can be accessed through Weather Underground.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
Rob's Obs conditions not updating
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Well.. someone has to comment on the potentially awful weather early next week, so here goes:
ReplyDeleteGFS has pushed back the timing of the strong cold front to late morning/ midday. Thermal ridge poking in from the west will be over us late this afternoon and overnite. I think highs tomorrow may take a quick run at the high teens to 20 C before cold advection and clouds take over. Watch for another glorious day in the mid to high twenties across the American RRV (how lucky they can be sometimes).
Lobe of polar vortex/cold pool over us for Friday with sub freezing 850 hPa temps as Rob mentioned. GFS at least is showing plenty of post frontal precip Thursday afternoon into Friday morning (looks like significant mid level frontogenesis and deformation behind front). So wet flurries will be possible by early Friday.
Arctic ridge on back side of deep cold pool tries to build south for late Friday/ Saturday. Depending on exact cloud trends, frost potential may be there Saturday morning.
Then things get really interesting (uh oh)... upper flow turns zonal to SW ahead of a large disturbance ejecting onto the central plains (long hinted at by GFS). This powerful disturbance will draw plenty of moisture and warmth northwards. The central plains and upper midwest are in line for possibly severe elevated outbreaks overnite Saturday and Sunday. Moisture, instability, extreme baroclinicity and nose of LLJ all present down there.
Closer to home, GFS depicts us to be on the nose of secondary SE LLJ by Monday, with QPF bullseye over N Dakota. This would be a cold rain with embedded convection (rooted at a a very high level). This precip would have to overcome dry outflow from persistent high in N Manitoba.
GFS and GEM diverge at this point with GFS closing off upper low right over S Manitoba early part of next week. If this scenario pans out, look for a rain and snow showers (especially over higher elevations) Monday thru Wednesday... absolutely miserable.
GEM is less aggressive with upper low and keeps most QPF south of the border. I'm sure Rob will add his thoughts on this whole potential mess.
Right you are, Daniel.. this is not a nice looking pattern to start off the first weekend of June with. Cold front pushes through Winnipeg from the north around suppertime Thursday, after one more day near 20C. Then we won't be seeing 20C for at least 5 days.. maybe longer. Even the forecast highs of 17-19C for Sunday through Tuesday look optimistic given a peristent NE flow through the period out of an Arctic ridge while that cloudy rainy weather spreads up from the Dakotas by Monday. Highs of 10-15C will be more likely in a set up like that. Likewise the sunny forecast for Friday looks optimistic.. 534 thickness, NW flow, will give a lot of low level cloud with temps barely cracking the 10C mark unless we get some sunny breaks. 850 temps of -6C over +8C lake water will even give the potential for off lake streamers in the NW flow, although progged soundings don't show a lot of over lake instability at this point due to slightly warmer temps above 850 mb. But the potential is there for lake effect rainshowers mixing with flurries early Friday. I think a widespread frost or freeze Saturday morning is a distinct possibility with clouds breaking up Friday night. After a frosty start, Saturday looks partly sunny and cool, then increasing clouds Sunday with a chance of showers then rain likely by Monday as that Dakota system spreads its nastiness north. At this point, I've given up hoping for any warmth until I see something more promising in the Day 3-5 guidance.
ReplyDeleteLine of enhanced convection dropping ESE on back edge of clouds where a bit more destabilization is occurring. Could be something interesting especially for the northern half of Winnipeg again...
ReplyDeleteA couple of cells west of Lake Manitoba in the clear air ... likely interacting with lake breeze boundary. Will be interesting to see what happens this evening, as the cells move SE and at the same time the clearing line tries to push thru Winnipeg...
ReplyDeleteHere comes the last line of convection... very bad attenuation of returns from Woodlands radar due to wetting of radar dome.
ReplyDeleteI think this is a serious flaw with the woodlands radar. American dopplers (10cm) have no where near this problem, and even foxwarren seems better. Is this a concern for PASPC?
Daniel.. re: radar attenuation. This is a problem which meteorologist are aware of and do account for. But it is an unfortunate disadvantage of having radar upstream of Winnipeg. Before Woodlands, EC radar was east of the city in Vivian MB, which reduced the attenuation problem for Winnipeg with storms moving in from the west.
ReplyDeleteFYI.. I've temporarily added Weather Underground graphs and images on my website to give updated conditions from my station. Still no luck with Shaw fixing the server problem for my usual VWS images.. and I don't know how long it will be.
ReplyDeleteInteresting that this was not considered more when selecting the new radar site for Winnipeg. It was a moot point in this case as the line did in fact fizzle out as it ran into more stable air lol.
ReplyDelete